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Forex Blog - European Market Update (Trade the News)

Wednesday, April 14, 2010 5:50:32 AM

 European Market Update:

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (CH) China Q1 Actual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Y/Y: 7.7% v 2.5%e
- (FI) Finland Mar CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Final Industrial Output M/M: -1.7% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.4% prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 2.8%e*** ECON
OMIC DATA ***
- (CH) China Q1 Actual Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Y/Y: 7.7% v 2.5%e
- (FI) Finland Mar CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Feb Final Industrial Output M/M: -1.7% v -1.7% prior; Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.4% prior
- (EU) Euro-Zone Feb Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 2.8%e
- (SA) South Africa Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.5% v 0.6%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Equity markets in Europe have maintained a solid footing throughout the morning session. Strength has followed a similar rotation in
Asia which was lifted by strong Q1 earnings results from Intel [INTC] in the post-market US period. Chip makers and related manufacturers have led the equity strength. Similarly strong Q1 earnings from ASML [ASML.NV] furthered this tech rotation with Infineon [IFX.GE], and STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] gaining on the sentiment. In energy plays, coal names have again been put in the focus with New Hope Coal [NHC.AU] adding a cash option to its bid for MacArthur [MCC.AU]. The move has placed renewed pressure on Xstrata [XTA.UK] to potentially enter the fray as part of joint offer. In a further demonstration of the strength of coal prices, New World Resources [NWR.UK] released terms of two Q2 coaking coal contracts, showing y/y increases of 87% and 71% respectively. Financial names have remained muted ahead of highly expected earnings from US based JPMogan [JPM] which are expected at 6:59EST. JPMorgan will be the first large US bank to report its Q1 figures. With figures from Bank of America [BAC] expected on Friday and Citi and Goldman in the following weeks, markets are looking for a demonstration of the sectors tone. Trading volume have been mixed with the CAC and DAX outperforming averages on the back of tech interest, while the FTSE continues to underperform on caution in financials.

- Individual equities:
UBS [UBSN.SZ]: CEO: Must 'realistically' accept that further fund outflows will take place as turn around moves forward; current group targets are realistic. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE]: Enters strategic JV with
Abu Dhabi's MAR, will sell civil shipbuilding assets to MAR; form ship building agreement. || Atos Origin [ATO.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €1.23B v €1.2Be; Reiterates financial targets. || Daimler [DAI.GE]: Confirms FY10 guidance (unit sales seen slightly higher y/y). || Porsche [PAH3.GE]: Exec: Sees 2010 deliveries ahead of 2009 levels. || Fraport [FRA.GE]: Reports March passenger volume +8.3% y/y at 4.36M. || ASML [ASML.NV]: Reports Q1 Net €107M v €100Me, Rev €742M v €740Me. || SeaDrill [SDRL.NO]: Awarded 5 year contract for new Jack-up build valued at apprx $650M. ||

- Speakers: Moody's raised the sovereign rating for
South Korea by one notch to "A1". The change has been prompted by Korea's demonstration of an exceptional level of economic resilience to the global crisis, while containing the government's budget deficit *** BOJ Gov Shirakawa reiterated that the Japanese economic activity has been picking up but that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy. He noted that overcoming deflation remained a top priority. He expected that the pace of economic growth would be moderate. He reiterated that the sustainability of the improvement of Japanese economy has become clearer and that concerns over a double-dip recession were diminishing. Declines in consumer price index y/y would likely slow *** Rheinsche Post reported that a group of German Academics plan to challenge Greek aid package in constitutional court citing that the package violates EU's Maastricht Treaty. The group believes that Greek aid would constitute an illegal subsidy *** Turkey Central Bank announced its plans to withdraw liquidity as economic recovery takes hold. The bank technical rate shift depending on liquidity developments and added that the exit strategy would be cautious and not destabilizing. Measures include gradual raising of foreign exchange reserve requirement and to end currency depo intermediary role. To reduce liquidity through repos and might set 1-week repo at 7.0% ***Hungary Central Bank issued its quarterly Stability report and noted that its banking sector capital adequacy were appropriate. It did note that Retail lending would stagnate this year and was vulnerable as a result of high debt and currency retail loans. Corporate lending was seen rising in 2011 *** EU's spokesperson refuted German press article that Greece aid could total €90B over three years. The EU has only has finalized the first year of funds for Greece and that the second and third year funds have yet to be envisioned. Earlier today Handelsblatt reported today that the overall package from the euro area might amount to as much as €90B. The article cited a German government official as saying the total aid could be "at least twice as high" as communicated so far. ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: Rising risk appetite helped to maintain a soft tone in the USD and JPY pairs as tech giant Intel's earnings beat expectations after the close on Tuesday. The JPY weakness aided by comments from BOJ Gov Shirakawa stated that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy stance even as the Japanese economy showed signs of improvement. Dealers seen to believe that EUR/USD has the technical legs to test the 1.38 area after holding above 1.3560 on Tuesday. For the time being the widening of the spread in the Greek/German 10-year bonds not impacting currency flows.

- Geo-political: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake has left at least 300 people dead in the Northwest Chinese
province of Qinghai. The quake was located in a more remote and mountainous region leading to a low casualty figure. While the region is sparsely populated, it is rich in copper, tin, coal and natural gas, there have been no reports of production disruptions. ***
Following the first PM level meeting between Pakistan and India (in Washington DC) since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, India has sought hold firm on limiting talks until it sees proof of credible steps taken by Pakistan to prosecute responsible parties. India continues to place blame for the terrorist attack that killed 174 people on Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based militant group, and has cut off numerous diplomatic contacts with it neighbor. Both
India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.

***Notes/Observations:
- Intel: beats the Street in both earnings and revenue
- President Obama: considers
China's currency to be "undervalued" and that currencies should "roughly" track the market so that no country has an advantage in trade.
-
Singapore's MAS tightened monetary policy by re-centring the exchange rate policy band upwards and saying it will allow a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar.
- Traders: large divergence between the confidence of big and small business owners
- Key US data in session with Retail Sales, CPI, and Beige Book

***Looking Ahead***
- 6:30 (PO) EU Rehn on Portugal Deficit report
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 9th: No est v -11.0% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 2.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.4%e v 10.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior;
CPI Ex Fod&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; CPI NSA: 217.714 v 216.741 prior
- 8:30 (US) Mar Advanced Retail Sales: 1.2%e v 0.3% prior; Ex Autos: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior

- 9:00 (GE) Germany KFW's Schroeder on SMEs finance
- 9:00 (GR) EU's Rehn on Greece at EU Parliament committee
- 9:30 Fed's Pianalto speaks in NY
- 10:00 Fed's Bernanke testifies before joint economic committee of Congress
- 10:00 (US) Treasury's Mundaca
- 10:00 (US) Feb Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly crude inventories
- 11:00 Fed's Lacker
- 13:45 Fed's Fisher
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Consumer Price Index M/M: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 9.9%e v 9.1% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.2% prior

- (SA) South Africa Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: -1.5% v 0.6%e

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Equity markets in Europe have maintained a solid footing throughout the morning session. Strength has followed a similar rotation in
Asia which was lifted by strong Q1 earnings results from Intel [INTC] in the post-market US period. Chip makers and related manufacturers have led the equity strength. Similarly strong Q1 earnings from ASML [ASML.NV] furthered this tech rotation with Infineon [IFX.GE], and STMicroelectronics [STM.FR] gaining on the sentiment. In energy plays, coal names have again been put in the focus with New Hope Coal [NHC.AU] adding a cash option to its bid for MacArthur [MCC.AU]. The move has placed renewed pressure on Xstrata [XTA.UK] to potentially enter the fray as part of joint offer. In a further demonstration of the strength of coal prices, New World Resources [NWR.UK] released terms of two Q2 coaking coal contracts, showing y/y increases of 87% and 71% respectively. Financial names have remained muted ahead of highly expected earnings from US based JPMogan [JPM] which are expected at 6:59EST. JPMorgan will be the first large US bank to report its Q1 figures. With figures from Bank of America [BAC] expected on Friday and Citi and Goldman in the following weeks, markets are looking for a demonstration of the sectors tone. Trading volume have been mixed with the CAC and DAX outperforming averages on the back of tech interest, while the FTSE continues to underperform on caution in financials.

- Individual equities:
UBS [UBSN.SZ]: CEO: Must 'realistically' accept that further fund outflows will take place as turn around moves forward; current group targets are realistic. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE]: Enters strategic JV with
Abu Dhabi's MAR, will sell civil shipbuilding assets to MAR; form ship building agreement. || Atos Origin [ATO.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €1.23B v €1.2Be; Reiterates financial targets. || Daimler [DAI.GE]: Confirms FY10 guidance (unit sales seen slightly higher y/y). || Porsche [PAH3.GE]: Exec: Sees 2010 deliveries ahead of 2009 levels. || Fraport [FRA.GE]: Reports March passenger volume +8.3% y/y at 4.36M. || ASML [ASML.NV]: Reports Q1 Net €107M v €100Me, Rev €742M v €740Me. || SeaDrill [SDRL.NO]: Awarded 5 year contract for new Jack-up build valued at apprx $650M. ||

- Speakers: Moody's raised the sovereign rating for
South Korea by one notch to "A1". The change has been prompted by Korea's demonstration of an exceptional level of economic resilience to the global crisis, while containing the government's budget deficit *** BOJ Gov Shirakawa reiterated that the Japanese economic activity has been picking up but that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy. He noted that overcoming deflation remained a top priority. He expected that the pace of economic growth would be moderate. He reiterated that the sustainability of the improvement of Japanese economy has become clearer and that concerns over a double-dip recession were diminishing. Declines in consumer price index y/y would likely slow *** - Rheinsche Post reported that a group of German Academics plan to challenge Greek aid package in constitutional court citing that the package violates EU's Maastricht Treaty. The group believes that Greek aid would constitute an illegal subsidy *** Turkey Central Bank announced its plans to withdraw liquidity as economic recovery takes hold. The bank technical rate shift depending on liquidity developments and added that the exit strategy would be cautious and not destabilizing. Measures include gradual raising of foreign exchange reserve requirement and to end currency depo intermediary role. To reduce liquidity through repos and might set 1-week repo at 7.0% ***Hungary Central Bank issued its quarterly Stability report and noted that its banking sector capital adequacy were appropriate. It did note that Retail lending would stagnate this year and was vulnerable as a result of high debt and currency retail loans. Corporate lending was seen rising in 2011 *** EU's spokesperson refuted German press article that Greece aid could total €90B over three years. The EU has only has finalized the first year of funds for Greece and that the second and third year funds have yet to be envisioned. Earlier today Handelsblatt reported today that the overall package from the euro area might amount to as much as €90B. The article cited a German government official as saying the total aid could be "at least twice as high" as communicated so far. ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: Rising risk appetite helped to maintain a soft tone in the USD and JPY pairs as tech giant Intel's earnings beat expectations after the close on Tuesday. The JPY weakness aided by comments from BOJ Gov Shirakawa stated that the central bank would maintain an easy monetary policy stance even as the Japanese economy showed signs of improvement. Dealers seen to believe that EUR/USD has the technical legs to test the 1.38 area after holding above 1.3560 on Tuesday. For the time being the widening of the spread in the Greek/German 10-year bonds not impacting currency flows.

- Geo-political: A magnitude 7.1 earthquake has left at least 300 people dead in the Northwest Chinese
province of Qinghai. The quake was located in a more remote and mountainous region leading to a low casualty figure. While the region is sparsely populated, it is rich in copper, tin, coal and natural gas, there have been no reports of production disruptions. ***
Following the first PM level meeting between Pakistan and India (in Washington DC) since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, India has sought hold firm on limiting talks until it sees proof of credible steps taken by Pakistan to prosecute responsible parties. India continues to place blame for the terrorist attack that killed 174 people on Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan based militant group, and has cut off numerous diplomatic contacts with it neighbor. Both
India and Pakistan are nuclear powers.

***Notes/Observations:
- Intel: beats the Street in both earnings and revenue
- President Obama: considers
China's currency to be "undervalued" and that currencies should "roughly" track the market so that no country has an advantage in trade.
-
Singapore's MAS tightened monetary policy by re-centring the exchange rate policy band upwards and saying it will allow a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar.
- Traders: large divergence between the confidence of big and small business owners
- Key US data in session with Retail Sales, CPI, and Beige Book

***Looking Ahead***
- 6:30 (PO) EU Rehn on Portugal Deficit report
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 9th: No est v -11.0% prior
- 8:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Minutes
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Feb Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v 2.7% prior; Y/Y: 10.4%e v 10.4% prior
- 8:30 (US) Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.0% prior; CPI Ex Fod&Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; CPI NSA: 217.714 v 216.741 prior
- 8:30 (US) Mar Advanced Retail Sales: 1.2%e v 0.3% prior; Ex Autos: 0.5%e v 0.8% prior
- 9:00 (GE) Germany KFW's Schroeder on SMEs finance
- 9:00 (GR) EU's Rehn on Greece at EU Parliament committee
- 9:30 Fed's Pianalto speaks in NY
- 10:00 Fed's Bernanke testifies before joint economic committee of Congress
- 10:00 (US) Treasury's Mundaca
- 10:00 (US) Feb Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly crude inventories
- 11:00 Fed's Lacker
- 13:45 Fed's Fisher
- 14:00 (US) Fed's Beige Book
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Consumer Price Index M/M: 1.1%e v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 9.9%e v 9.1% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 13.2% prior

 

 

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

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