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Wednesday April 14, 2010 - 13:14:22 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 14,
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial
Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who
file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.This
data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A
higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K.
The Euro reached a new low for this week at 1.3544 and
from there started a new advancement, which was able to achieve more than 100
pips so far, and it is closing on the important resistance 1.3675, which we
believe is the real key that can open the way for more gains. The â€śfightâ€ť
between this advancement, and this resistance will be the deciding factor which
will determine the direction that we will take from these levels. If the price
manages to break the resistance, the rise will go on and get stronger, as we see
it targeting the important 1.3776 & if broken we will not be surprised to
see 1.3861. The support is at 1.3625, and breaking it would mean that we are on
the way to test yesterdayâ€™s low 1.3544 once again, and then head towards a very
important support, provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the whole rise from
1.3281, which is at 1.3437. In case we reach this level or come close to it, it
will be a critical level not only for the short term but for the medium term as
well. It is worth noticing that the
EURUSD has not filled the gap or â€śclosed
the windowâ€ť, and thus, the possibility of downside activity remains there.
â€˘ 1.3625: previous intraday resistance.
â€˘ 1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from
â€˘ 1.3675: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
1.3776: Mar 15th high.
â€˘ 1.3861: Jan 29th
In what seems to be the
strongest attempt to break the falling trend line from 94.77 the price surpassed
the trend line with a few pips, but stopped not far from it at 93.34. The thing
is that, the technical outlook has not changed for days. We are still trading
very slowly in a correction to the up move which topped at 94.77, which is a
correction that managed to reach its first target at 92.85. We are still
watching for any other technical evidences to decide whether this correction has
finished at Fibonacci 38.2% or that it is still going and will soon target
Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% levels. Support is at 92.26 and in case it is broken,
the price will continue its drop from 94.77 (the correction), and will target
the most important support for the short term (and may be the medium term as
well) 91.66, and if broken we will target 91.07 as a modest target for such a
break on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance it is at 93.34, and
breaking it would indicate that we are back to the 94areas after completing a
modest correction, and we will target 94.07 &
â€˘ 92.26: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 89.74,
with the rising trend line from 88.12 coming closer and closer to this
â€˘ 91.66: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 89.74, a very important
support for the short term.
â€˘ 91.07: Mar 12th
â€˘ 93.26: the falling trend line from 94.77 on
â€˘ 94.07: important intraday support/resistance.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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