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Wednesday April 14, 2010 - 13:14:22 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 14/04/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis April 14, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless Claims

Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report. The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro reached a new low for this week at 1.3544 and from there started a new advancement, which was able to achieve more than 100 pips so far, and it is closing on the important resistance 1.3675, which we believe is the real key that can open the way for more gains. The “fight” between this advancement, and this resistance will be the deciding factor which will determine the direction that we will take from these levels. If the price manages to break the resistance, the rise will go on and get stronger, as we see it targeting the important 1.3776 & if broken we will not be surprised to see 1.3861. The support is at 1.3625, and breaking it would mean that we are on the way to test yesterday’s low 1.3544 once again, and then head towards a very important support, provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the whole rise from 1.3281, which is at 1.3437. In case we reach this level or come close to it, it will be a critical level not only for the short term but for the medium term as well. It is worth noticing that the
EURUSD has not filled the gap or “closed the window”, and thus, the possibility of downside activity remains there.

Support:
• 1.3625: previous intraday resistance.
• 1.3544: yesterday’s low.
• 1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.3281.

Resistance:
• 1.3675: short term Fibonacci 61.8%.
• 1.3776: Mar 15th high.
• 1.3861: Jan 29th low.

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USD/JPY

In what seems to be the strongest attempt to break the falling trend line from 94.77 the price surpassed the trend line with a few pips, but stopped not far from it at 93.34. The thing is that, the technical outlook has not changed for days. We are still trading very slowly in a correction to the up move which topped at 94.77, which is a correction that managed to reach its first target at 92.85. We are still watching for any other technical evidences to decide whether this correction has finished at Fibonacci 38.2% or that it is still going and will soon target Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% levels. Support is at 92.26 and in case it is broken, the price will continue its drop from 94.77 (the correction), and will target the most important support for the short term (and may be the medium term as well) 91.66, and if broken we will target 91.07 as a modest target for such a break on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance it is at 93.34, and breaking it would indicate that we are back to the 94areas after completing a modest correction, and we will target 94.07 & 95.05.

Support:
• 92.26: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 89.74, with the rising trend line from 88.12 coming closer and closer to this level.
• 91.66: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 89.74, a very important support for the short term.
• 91.07: Mar 12th high.

Resistance:
• 93.26: the falling trend line from 94.77 on hourly chart.
• 94.07: important intraday support/resistance.
• 95.05: Aug 24th high.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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