The euro appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3680
level and was supported around the $1.3595 level. U.S. equities staged an impressive performance
following a strong showing in first quarter earnings by U.S. technology giant
Intel and U.S. banking giant JPMorgan Chase Bank.Both companies beat the streetâ€™s forecasts
and put a bid in U.S. equities markets, helping the common currency to advance
on that premise that riskier assets may outperform.Traders are still very much focused, however,
on Greeceâ€™s woes with many dealers speculating the country will be forced to
borrow funds from the International Monetary Fund and European Union partners
in the event that it is unable to refinance several billion euro in maturing
debt over the next several weeks.Data
released in the eurozone today saw EMU-16 February industrial production climb
0.9% m/m and 4.1% y/y.The European
Central Bank will publish its April monthly report tomorrow and EMU-16 consumer
price inflation and trade balance numbers will be released on Friday. European Central Bank policymaker Stark
reported eurozone debt-to-GDP may top 100%.ECBâ€™s Wellink said the U.S. economic recovery has been behind the euroâ€™s
recent decline and called for a strengthening of the European Unionâ€™s Growth
and Stability Pact.In U.S. news, data released today saw the March consumer price
index climb 0.1% m/m and 2.3% y/y at the headline level with the ex-food and
energy rate up 0.0% m/m and 1.1% y/y.Also, March advance retail sales were up 1.6% with the ex-autos
component up 0.6%.Additionally,
February business inventories were up 0.5%, up from the revised prior reading
of 0.2%.The Fedâ€™s Beige Book was
released today and reported that the economy expanded â€śsomewhatâ€ť across most of
the U.S. in March on the heels of better consumer spending and greater
manufacturing activity.Dallas Fed
President Fisher noted he sees a â€śpositive momentumâ€ť in the U.S. economy but
warned the jobless rate may remain high â€śfor a rather long timeâ€ť and added â€śthere
is still a lot of slack in the the economy.â€ť Fed Chairman Bernanke called on
China to loosen the yuanâ€™s exchange rate because â€śit would give them more
autonomy in their monetary policy so they could address inflation and bubbles.â€ťFed President Lacker said the economy is a â€ślong
way from a full recovery.â€ťEuro
bids are cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen depreciated
vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ÂĄ93.70
level and was supported around the ÂĄ92.80 level. Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa reiterated the
central bank will maintain its easy monetary policy for now, one day after he
testified the economy is improving and noted the central bankâ€™s inflation
targets may need to be upwardly revised.BoJ released data overnight that confirmed the outstanding amounts of
global credit swaps on sovereign debt climbed 31% in the year that ended on 5
February, underscoring investorsâ€™ concerns over government finances.Japanese swaps grew faster than swaps
involving the U.S. and the U.K., a further indication that fears have been
mounting as Japanâ€™s fiscal position deteriorates.Shirakawa also reiterated declines in
consumer prices will moderate and said final private demand for durable goods
is improving.Yesterday, the ruling
Democratic Party of Japan released a draft document wherein policymakers
defended the need for a weaker yen.The
document suggested the ÂĄ120 level would be â€śconvenientâ€ť and called for â€śdrastic
monetary easing,â€ť adding the government and Bank of Japan should target an
inflation level â€śover 2.0%.â€ťData to be
released in Japan overnight include February industrial production and capacity
utilization.The Nikkei 225 stock index gained
0.39% to close at ÂĄ11,204.90.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the ÂĄ96.85 level.The
euro moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen as the single currency tested offers around
the ÂĄ127.65 level and was supported around the ÂĄ126.75 level.The
British pound moved lower vis-Ă -vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ÂĄ144.65 level while the Swiss
franc moved higher vis-Ă -vis the yen and tested offers around the ÂĄ88.85 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-Ă -vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8258 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8256. China reported foreign pressure to
revalue its yuan currency is not justified and said global economic problems
are not a result of the yuanâ€™s value.Many dealers believe China will revalue its yuan currency by 30 June
with some prominent China-watchers calling for a revaluation as soon as May or
even earlier.Data released in China
overnight saw the March NDRC housing price index print at 11.7, up from the
prior reading of 10.7.Also, it was
reported that March actual final direct investment was up 12.08% y/y.Many data will be released in China overnight
including Q1 GDP, March PPI, March CPI, March retail sales, and March
British pound appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers
around the US$ 1.5490 level and was supported around the $1.5370 level. Data released in the U.K. today saw March
Nationwide consumer confidence decline to +72 from an upwardly revised
+81.Traders are closely monitoring the
lead-up to the U.K. general election on 6 May amid talk that Prime Minister
Brown may have narrowed the gap against Tory challenger Cameron, the presumed favourite.Dealers are still speculating the most likely
scenario will be a hung Parliament and sterling has generally been weaker as a
result of this premise.Cable bids are
cited around the US$ 1.5140 level.The euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the
British pound as the single currency tested bids around the ÂŁ0.8805 level and
was capped around the ÂŁ0.8865 level.
franc appreciated vis-Ă -vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids
around the CHF 1.0500 figure and was capped around the CHF 1.0560 level.There was talk today that the Swiss National
Bank may have sold francs for euro in an intervention to try and support the
Swiss export sector.Data to be released
in Switzerland this week include the March producer and import price index. Last
Friday, Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Danthine said â€śavoiding
inflationâ€ť is a â€śmedium-termâ€ť challenge.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level.The
euro moved lower vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.4385 level while the
British pound moved higher vis-Ă -vis the Swiss franc and tested offers
around the CHF 1.6300 figure.
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Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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