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Thursday April 15, 2010 - 09:52:06 GMT
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European Market Update: European peripherals continue to widen; Greece might cancel dollar-denominated bond issue if interest wanes’

Thursday, April 15, 2010 5:45:28 AM

 European Market Update: European peripherals continue to widen; Greece might cancel dollar-denominated bond issue if interest wanes’


- (FI) Finland Feb Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 1.3% v -1.5% prior
- (IN) India Mar Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 9.9% v 10.4%e
- (CZ) Czech Mar PPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.7%e
- (CZ) Czech Feb Export Price Index: -8.7% v -5.5% prior; Import Price Index: -6.7% v -3.9% prior
- (SP) Spain Mar Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4%e
- (SP) Spain Mar CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 1.5% v 1.4%e
- (SP) Spain Mar CPI Core M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.3%e
- (TU) Turkey Jan Unemployment Rate: 14.5% v 14.2%e
- (FI) Finland Feb Current Account: €100M v €270M prior
- (SW) Sweden Mar Average House Prices (SEK): v 2.03M prior
- (DE) Denmark Mar Wholesale Prices M/M: % v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.3% prior
- (NE) Netherlands Feb Retail Sales Y/Y: % v -4.9% prior
- (EU) ECB Monthly Report:Interest rates remain at appropriate levels; Inflation to remain moderate; Economic growth to be moderate and bumpy
- (SW) Sweden Mar AMV Unemployment Rate: 5.2% v 5.4%e
- (NO) Norway Mar Trade Balance (NOK): 28.0B v 32.4B prior
- (IT) Italy Feb Total Trade Balance: -€2.3B v -€3.4B prior; Trade Balance EU: -€710M v -€205M prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Apr 9th: $448.6B v $447.2B prior

- Equities: Equity markets have seen a volatile session with strong flows of corporate, political and even climatic events driving trading flows. European bourses opened positive supported by strong earnings and share interest in pharmaceuticals following Roche [ROG.SZ] Q1 figures. Roche effectively reiterated its guidance and debt cut plans while providing strong top line revenues. Aftermarket US pre-reports and updated guidance from UPS [UPS] boosted mail and transpiration names in
Europe with Deutsche Post [DPW.GE] significantly outperforming the DAX. Earnings data was not entirely positive with releases from Danone [BN.FR] and Experian [EXPN.UK] being meet with a negative reaction. Shares of Rio Tinto and the broader mineral/miner sector were heavier following the firms Q1 production report. Rio expressed continued optimism in its iron ore production figures and Chinese demand, but shares continued to move lower on disappointed expectations and hesitation ahead of BHP [BHP.AU] commentary. Coal name MacArthur [MCC.AU] continues to drive interest with US based Peabody [BTU] again boosting its bid, now at A$16/shr (cash). Trading in financials has been moderately higher following yesterday's results from JPMorgan [JPM], continued sector interest has been tampered by a BNP analyst note cutting the European Insurance sector to neutral. Into 5:30EST, equity markets have rolled over and continue to head marginally lower on a mix of sovereign offering concerns (Greece) and renewed chatter of possible Chinese monetary policy action.

- Individual equities: Rio Tinto [RIO.AU]: Reports Q1 iron ore output +39% y/y (to 43.4M tons) v +49% y/y in Q4; Guides FY10 global iron ore output 234M metric tons v 217M y/y. || Experian [EXPN.UK]: Reports H2 Revenue +3% y/y, organic revenue +2% y/y. || Total [FP.FR]: Reports Q1 refining margin indicator at $29.5/ton v $11.7/ton q/q ( v $30.5/ton y/y). || Roche [
ROG.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev CHF12.2B v CHF11.9Be; Confirms FY outlook. || Syngenta [SYNN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev $3.5B v $3.6Be. || Sulzer [SUN.SZ]: Reports Q1 orders CHF816.8M v CHF839.3M y/y; Guides FY10 order intake flat y/y. || Novolipetsk [NLMK.RU]: Reports Q1 crude steel output at 2.8M tons -6% q/q. ||

- Speakers: German Econ Min Bruederle commented that it was crucial that Germany respected the Maastricht Stability Pact and that a loose German fiscal policy would have serious consequences. He reiterated that
Germany was not out of the woods just yet *** EU Rehn reiterated the view that Greece would not default on its obligations. He added that was No reason to doubt Germany's commitment to an EU pledge to help Greece *** ECB's Bini Smaghi reiterated the view that Greece agreement makes it clear Greece default and EMU exit as "absurd" . The central bankers noted that it needed concrete action and not vague statements that default would not occur. He called the EU Summit deal a key turning point for the Greek crisis. Prudent regulatory action is justified to restore balance between stability and economic growth *** BoJ April Regional Economic Report stated that 7 of 9 regions raised their economic view from Jan. the report noted that all regional economies were picking up, but the pace of the pickup differed in each region. The BOJ noted that 6 out of 9 regions saw that the decline in CAPEX was "coming to a halt" but that consumption as a whole was still weak. 4 out of 9 regions said signs of employment improving or leveling out. *** US Treasury's Dollar commented that the recent deficit seen in China trade figures would not be a 'trend;. The official stated that he expected to see large trade surplus in China this year *** The ECB monthly report reiterated that interest rate levels were appropriate and that inflation would remain moderate in the medium term. It also noted that that economic growth would be moderate and uneven and that the overall outlook remained uncertain. It again stressed that it was essential that governments reduce their budget deficits. M3 money supply growth might be negative or very modest for some time and it saw a far more protracted output losses expected in recovery *** Turkish Central Bank Gov Yilmaz commented that unemployment remained high and was limiting demand levels. He noted that inflation risks might accelerate and was -tracking pricing behavior. The central bank believes that inflation would be in line with targets by Q1 2011. *** China National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): forecasted H1 CPI at approx 2.5% y/y *** ECB's Bonello commented that Euro area growth to remain sluggish and recovery to be less robust compared to other parts of the world. *** German State-sponsored institutes' economic outlook confirmed recent press reports that 2010 GDP growth seen at 1.5% v 1.2% prior view. It saw 2011 growth at 1.4% . It noted that German growth was driven by exports with exports to rise 7.1% in 2010 and 6.3% in 2011. It Forecasted 2010 German State budget deficit at 4.9% of GDP and at 4.2% in 2011. Forecasted avg 2010 unemployment at 7.8% and at 7.6% in 2011. German economic recovery was not at inflation risk and that the ECB was likely to hold interest rates steady through 2011. Greece aid was against the spirit of Maastrict Treasty thus a violation but added that the IMF should supervise Greece's aid distribution ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The Strong China GDP data coupled with upbeat corporate earnings had seen risk appetite appear entrench but rumors of an imminent PBoC interest rate or reserve requirement hike weighed upon sentiment as the session progressed. The European peripheral situation also aided risk aversion attitude as Greek yield spreads over Bunds widened further to test 420bps and dealers noted that
Athens still needed to raise around €10B before the end of May. Greece reportedly lowered expectations for its USD-denominated bond issue
And might cancel the whole issue if interest from investors was not sufficient. The key word seeming to be when does activation of the EU package formally occur. EUR/USD testing below the 1.3540 area as the NY morning approached. The JPY also benefited from the risk aversion sentiment.

- Geo-political A volcanic eruption under
Iceland's Eyjafjallajoekull glacier is leading to a growing air-traffic mess in Northern Europe. Volcanic ash is lethal for modern turbofan compressor engines and large sections of airspace over the Northern Atlantic and Scotland are being closed down. Initially, flights to and from Scotland were the only ones effected, but as the plume spreads, transatlantic and European bound flights from Heathrow are being cancelled at an accelerating rate. ***Syria has denied speculation that various elements in its military were supplying Hezbollah (in Lebanon) with Soviet era Scud missiles. The short range missiles, reportedly smuggled from Iran via Syria (20-60 mile range) would put heavily populated centers of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem within striking range. The size and sophistication of the weaponry would potentially alter the current military balance in south Lebanon that has existed tenuously since an abortive conflict in 2006.

- U.S. agenda packed with data and more Fed speak
- Record of over 3M US households in line for foreclosure in 2010
- Greek might cancel its dollar bond if interest wanes
- Rumors of China imminent rate move despite soft inflation data

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia Mar Industrial Production M/M: 10.5%e v 4.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 1.9% prior
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: 0.5%e v 1.1% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar CPI M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.6%e v 2.9% prior
- 8:00 (IC) Iceland Mar Unemployment Rate: No est v 9.3% prior
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Mar Copper Exports: No est v $2.7B prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 440Ke v 460K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.580Me v 4.550M prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Empire manufacturing: 24.00e v 22.86 prior
- 9:00 (US) Feb Net Long-term TIC Flows: $29.7Be v $19.1B prior; Total Net TIC Flows: No est v -$33.4B prior
- 9:00 (PD) Poland Mar Budget Level (PLN): No est v -11.9B prior; Budget Level YTD: No est v -16.7B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 32.1% prior
- 9:15 (EU) ECB's Stark in Wash
- 9:15 (US) Fed's Fisher
- 9:15 (US) Mar Industrial Production: 0.7%e v 0.1% prior; Capacity Utilization: 73.3%e v 72.7% prior
- 10:00 (US) Philadelphia Fed: 20.0e v 18.9 prior
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Mar Consumer Prices M/M: 0.1%e v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: 3.2%e v 3.6% prior
- 12:15 (US) Fed's Bullard in NY on financial risks
- 13:00 (US) Apr NAHB Housing Market Index: 16e v 15 prior
- 13:30 (SZ) SNB's Jordan
- 13:40 (US) Fed's Lockhart press briefing
- 15:00 (US) Paul Volker in NY on financial risks
- 15:30 (US) US Tsy KruegerINR130B in bonds



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