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Thursday April 15, 2010 - 13:39:21 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 15/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 15,
Fundamental Analysis: Building
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Building
Permits. It shows the number of permits for new construction projects issued by
the government. Building permits are key indicator for the condition of the
housing market. A higher than expected reading should be taken as
positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be
taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts predict a future reading of
The Euro tested the
resistance we described as â€śimportantâ€ť 1.3675 with amazing accuracy, as
yesterdayâ€™s high was 1.3677. We still believe that 1.3675 is the key that can
open the way for more gains. And still, the â€śfightâ€ť between this advancement and
this resistance will be the deciding factor which will determine the direction
that we will take from these levels. If the price manages to break the
resistance, the rise will go on and get stronger as we see it targeting the
important 1.3776 & if broken we will not be surprised to see 1.3861. The
support is at 1.3625, and breaking it would mean that we are on the way to test
Tuesdayâ€™s low 1.3544 once again, and then head towards a very important support,
provided by the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the whole rise from 1.3281, which is
at 1.3437. In case we reach this level or come close to it, it will be a
critical level not only for the short term but for the medium term as well. It
is worth noticing that the EURUSD has not filled the gap or â€śclosed the windowâ€ť,
and thus, the possibility of downside activity remains there.
â€˘ 1.3625: the rising trend line from 1.3281 on the
â€˘ 1.3544: Tuesdayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
rise from 1.3281.
â€˘ 1.3675: short term Fibonacci
61.8%, the resistance that stopped yesterdayâ€™s rise.
â€˘ 1.3776: Mar 15th
â€˘ 1.3861: Jan 29th
The technical outlook has
not changed for days. We are still trading very slowly in a correction to the up
move which topped at 94.77, which is a correction that managed to reach its
first target at 92.85. We are still watching for any other technical evidences
to decide whether this correction has finished at Fibonacci 38.2% or that it is
still going and will soon target Fibonacci 50% & 61.8% levels. But, we now
have a very important support which combines Fibonacci 50% with the rising trend
line from 88.12. This all important support is at 92.26 and in case it is
broken, the price will continue its drop from 94.77 (the correction), and will
target the most important support for the short term (and may be the medium term
as well) 91.66, and if broken we will target 91.07 as a modest target for such a
break on the way to lower targets. As for the resistance, we raised it to 93.61,
and breaking it would indicate that we are back to the 94areas after completing
a modest correction, and we will target 94.24 &
â€˘ 92.26: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 89.74,
and the rising trend line from 88.12 on the 4-hour chart, a very important
support for both, short & medium terms.
â€˘ 91.66: Fibonacci 61.8% for the
rise from 89.74.
â€˘ 91.07: Mar 12th high.
93.61: an intraday resistance which stopped the price several times.
Apr 7th high.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
---Forex Trading Analysis written
by Munther Marji for ForexPros.
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09:30 GB- CPI
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
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