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Thursday April 15, 2010 - 20:19:11 GMT
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British Pound gains as Election Concerns Ease

The GBP USD is trading better at the mid-session after a report showed the opposition Conservative Party’s lead over the Labor Party widened, easing concerns that the May 6th election will produce a hung parliament. Traders had been pressuring the British Pound lately because of concerns that a hung parliament would result in a government too weak to tackle the U.K.’s huge budget deficit. Gains could be limited on speculation that bullish traders will begin to liquidate their long positions ahead of the election.

Technically, this currency found support following an early test of an uptrending Gann angle support at 1.5397. Look for this market to remain firm unless it closes lower. In that case a reversal top will form indicating the start of a potential short-term correction.

The EUR USD is down but off its low. Following a sharply lower opening, the Euro is mounting a small comeback as reports surfaced that the International Monetary Fund will meet with Greece on Monday to discuss financial aid options.

Market participants are feeling jittery again because of concerns over Greece. Investors are worried that the IMF/EU $61 billion financial aid plan will not be enough to help the Greek economy and restore confidence in the Euro. At this time, the Euro is facing serious credibility issues.

Last night China reported that its Gross Domestic Product grew 11.9 percent from a year ago. This was slightly better than the median guesses of 11.7 percent.  The news, that China’s economy accelerated more than expected in the first quarter, raised concerns that it may be overheating, prompting more talk of a possible interest rate like. Traders are also increasing speculation that China may revalue its currency as soon as next week. If this takes place, look for the Japanese Yen to strengthen and the U.S. Dollar to weaken.

U.S. economic reports this morning helped weaken the Dollar after Weekly Initial Job Claims and Industrial Production were less than stellar. The job claims report showed more Americans filed for unemployment aid while factory production came in below expectations. Both reports signaled interest rates would remain low.

News that China’s GDP was up slightly more than expected during the first quarter is helping to pressure the USD JPY at the mid-session. Technically, the charts indicate that downside momentum could take this market down to 92.26 over the near-term. Traders should also note that the general consensus suggests that the Japanese Yen is likely to gain when China decides to revalue its currency.

Short-covering ahead of next week’s Bank of Canada meeting on April 20th may be helping to underpin the USD CAD at the mid-session. The chart formation suggests the possibility of a short covering rally. Oversold conditions are also helping this market recover after touching a new low for the week on Wednesday.

For over a year, Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney has pledged to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.25% through June. Canadian financial markets are indicating, however, that rates may rise as early as June 1. This helped pressure the USD CAD below parity recently.  The bigger picture suggests the Canadian Dollar is likely to continue to rise because of the stronger-than-expected economic recovery and expectations for interest rate increases.

The AUD USD rose overnight following China’s strong GDP report. Weaker demand for higher yielding assets, however, quickly brought in sellers. The recent two day rally may be setting up the market for a break. This is possible due to the closing price reversal top at .9387 which is still weighing on the markets. A trade through .9223 will turn the main trend down.

The NZD USD is feeling similar pressure but this market continues to remain glued to a major 50% price level at .7124. The charts indicate that downside pressure is likely as long as the Kiwi remains below .7200. A break through .7086 will turn the main trend down. Traders may begin to sell off both the New Zealand and Australian Dollars ahead of next week’s possible revaluing of the Yuan by China.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 19 Feb 2018
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A 09:30 GB- GDP
AA 13:30 CA- Retail Sales
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