Strong earnings reports from Intel and UPS helped boost U.S. equity
markets on Thursday. The rally seemed a little tentative, however, as traders
seem somewhat cautious with stock prices at such lofty levels.
The initial move to the upside was triggered as the Dollar
weakened following a stronger opening. On Wednesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke
ignited a rally in the equity markets with his dovish assessment of the
economic recovery and outlook for interest rates. Like it he did several times
before, Thursdayâ€™s weak Initial Claims Report and weaker than expected
Industrial Production Report sent a signal that interest rates would remain
low, this also helped to contribute to todayâ€™s rally.
June Treasury Bonds finished better after a volatile morning
session. Weaker than expected U.S.
economic reports helped to contribute to the strength. T-Bonds broke this
morning only to find support at a 50% price level at 115â€™14. Gains have been
limited however, by resistance at another 50% retracement level at 116â€™15.
June Gold opened lower because of the stronger Dollar, but gained
back most of its loss by the close. Weaker U.S. economic reports helped
pressure the Dollar, leading to the turnaround in gold.
The falling Euro put pressure on June Crude Oil early but it
gained back most of its earlier loss by the close. Clearly the direction of the
Dollar and the Euro is dictating the movement of crude oil at this time. A
weaker Dollar will indicate more demand for higher risk which will support a
rally in crude oil. Technically, this market may be forming a secondary lower
top which could mean the start of a short-term sell-off. A breakout over 87.59
is needed to reaffirm the uptrend.
The June British Pound closed higher after a report showed
the opposition Conservative Partyâ€™s lead over the Labor Party widened, easing
concerns that the May 6th election will produce a hung parliament. Traders had
been pressuring the British Pound lately because of concerns that a hung
parliament would result in a government too weak to tackle the U.K.â€™s
huge budget deficit. Gains could be limited on speculation that bullish traders
will begin to liquidate their long positions ahead of the election.
Technically, this currency found support following an early
test of an uptrending Gann angle support at 1.5397. Look for this market to
continue to remain strong as long as this angle holds as support. The next
upside objective is a 50% level at 1.5618.
The June Euro finished down off its low. Following a sharply
lower opening, the Euro mounted a small comeback throughout the day as reports
surfaced that the International Monetary Fund will meet with Greece on Monday to discuss
financial aid options.
Market participants are feeling jittery again because of concerns
Investors are worried that the IMF/EU $61 billion financial aid plan will not
be enough to help the Greek economy and restore confidence in the Euro. At this
time, the Euro is facing serious credibility issues.
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