Friday April 16, 2010 - 03:41:41 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 16-Apr-2010 - 0338 GMT
The US Equities closed up yesterday. The Dow (11144.57) was up 0.19% and the Nasdaq (2515.69) was up 0.43%. The Dow is marginally above the crucial level of 11100, and a strong move on either side may decide its course in the coming weeks.
The Asians are all in the Red today. The Nikkei (11121.53) is down 1.35%, the Shanghai (3127.322) is down 1.19% and the Hang Seng (21885.03) is down 1.23%. In India, the Sensex (17639.26) was down 1.03% and the Nifty (5273.60) was down 0.93% yesterday. The fall was led by Reliance Industries (1090.25, down 2.7%), accompanied by concerns that the RBI may hike interest rates next week. The Sensex may see some Support near 17500-300 over next few days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4999.600) is down 0.49%.
Crude (85.15) has come off from yesterday's high of 86.27 as the stronger dollar pulled down the price. However, it is continuing to trade above 85 and the overall outlook remains bullish for a rise to 90+ levels in the coming weeks with immediate Support at 84 and strong Support in the broad 82-80 region.
Gold (1156.10) is trading sideways between 1140-60 over the last few days. The stornger dollar restricted the price rise yesterday. The broader bullish sentiment continues to remain intact with immediate Support at 1140-30 region within the broad 1140-00 Support region. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Risk "appetite" one day and then "aversion" the next day. The Euro (1.3545) was up on Greece yesterday, its down on Greece today. From the charts, a fall to 1.34 looks possible now. Dollar-Yen (92.67) has also moved down on the "risk aversion" but has Support at current levels and could bounce during the day. The Euro-Yen Cross (125.40) has fallen over the last two days (from 127.70) and can dip a little more towards 124.40.
The Pound (1.5415) has dipped a bit from yesterday, but not much. It has been gaining against the Euro for the last couple of days. It has Support near 1.5380 today and might bounce from there. Dollar-Swiss has moved up to 1.0590 from yesterday's low near 1.0505, reflecting the weakness in the Euro. The Aussie (0.9285) too has dipped since yesterday, unable to rise past 0.93654. It is, in fact, looking a little rich against the Euro and Pound as well.
In Asia, the Korean Won (1114.80) has weakened a bit from yesterday's levels near 1107. The Sing Dollar (1.3780) has also weakened a goodish bit today, from yesterda's strong level near 1.3718. This portends further weakness for the Rupee, which had closed at 44.43 yesterday. A Day Close above 44.30 today may be bullish next week.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 5 bps each to quote at 1.00% and 3.81% respectively.
09:00 GMT EU Mar CPI (YoY)
...Expected 0.8%...Previous 0.9%
09:00 GMT EU Trade Bal
...Expected 0.5 Bln...Previous 8.9 Bln
12:30 GMT US Mar Housing Starts
...Expected 0.600 Mln...Previous 0.580 Mln
UK Cons Conf
...Actual 72...Previous 81
US Mar TICS (Net foreign purch of long-term Sec)
...Actual $ 47.1 Bln...Previous $ 15.0 Bln
US Mar Industrial Production
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.3%
US Mar Capacity Utilization
...Actual 73.2%...Previous 73.0%
Mar US Philifed Index
...Actual 20.2...Previous 18.9
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