Monday April 19, 2010 - 04:21:57 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 19-Apr-2010 - 0420 GMT
Please read the word 'convicted' as 'accused' in our Morning Briefing, earlier this morning. The error is deeply regretted. Please find below our corrected e-mail.
The US Equities fell after Goldman Sachs was accused for defrauding the investors by the SEC on Friday. The Dow (11018.66) was down 1.13% and the Nasdaq (2481.26) as down 1.37%. The Dow has honoured the Resistance at 11100 and may dip towards 10500, on a fall below 11000 in the coming days.
All Asians are down heavily following the Goldman accusation. The Nikkei (10901.33) is down 1.81%, the Shanghai (3077.759) is down 1.68% and the Hang Seng (21562.35) is down 1.39%. In India, the Sensex (17591.18) was down 0.85% and the Nifty (5262.60) was down 1.85% last week. The Sensex may fall towards 17000 in the coming days.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4941.100) is down 1.32%.
Crude (81.88) fell sharply on Friday's following the Goldman Sachs' fraud cases which pulled down the US equity market. The stronger dollar also supported the fall. It is now trading in the Support region (82-80) mentioned earlier and while below 83 there are good chances of testing 81-80 in the coming days.
Gold (1136.10) fell sharply and closed below 1150 following the stronger dollar. Though the Support at 1130 mentioned earlier is holding, the stronger dollar might retain the downside pressure for some time. We might expect it to consolidate in the 1140-00 Support region for some time.
Risk aversion and the fall in Equities worldwide (post the Goldman Sachs issues) has led to strengthening of the Dollar and the Yen. The Euro (1.3465) and Aussie (0.9210) have fallen quite a bit since Friday. The Euro might dip a little further towards 1.34, but the Aussie might find some Support near the current levels. Dollar-Yen (92.10) has come down substabtially on Friday and might fall further towards 91.30.
The Pound (1.5255) has also crashed from last week's high near 1.5520 and could see further decline towards 1.5080. Dollar-Swiss (1.0645) has moved up from last week's low near 1.05 and could rise further towards 1.0710.
In Asia, both the Korean Won (1116.90) and Sing Dollar (1.3789) have weakened quite a bit today. Expect Dollar-Rupee to move up towards 44.60-70 today, in comparison to Friday's close near 44.3150.
The 3M USD LIBOR was up 1 bps to be set at 0.31%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were down 6 bps and 5 bps each to quote at 0.94% and 3.76% respectively.
The BOC and RBI meet are scheduled for tomorrow.
No major data release today
EU Mar CPI (YoY)
...Actual 1.0%...Previous 0.9%
EU Trade Bal
...Actual 2.6 Bln...Previous 9.0 Bln
US Mar Housing Starts
...Actual 0.630 Mln...Previous 0.580 Mln
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