Monday April 19, 2010 - 13:35:30 GMT
Share This Story
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Which side of the trade was God on Mr. B?Quotable
Farewell the neighing steed, and the shrill trump,
The spirit-stirring drum, th' ear-piercing fife;
The royal banner, and all quality,
Pride, pomp, and circumstance of glorious war!
And O you mortal engines, whose rude throats
Th' immortal Jove's dread clamors counterfeit,
Farewell! Othello's occupation's gone.
William Shakespeare, Othello Act 3, scene 3, 350â€“357FX Trading â€“ Which side of the trade was God on Mr. B?
Since the break of the Goldman news, CNBC has turned itself into all-Goldman-all-the- time. So, I preface this by saying there isnâ€™t too much left to say, given what we do know now, but itâ€™s just too darn fresh not to say somethingâ€¦
The lessons of hubris are learned over and over again by each â€śgreatâ€ť generation. At one time in our lives most of us have fallen victim to its powerful clutch. I have a very close and wise friend. I met him during my stock brokerage years which were a long time ago. He said to me one day: â€śYou know, what we all need to do is stamp the word hubris on our wrists and look at it every day.â€ť Though not into tattoos, I think of his wise counsel often.
When I read a while back that Goldmanâ€™s esteemed leader Mr. Lloyd Blankenfeld, told the Financial Times that Goldman was doing â€śGodâ€™s workâ€ť I thought of my friend and hubris. Evidently Mr. B didnâ€™t have hubris stamped on his wrist.
Letâ€™s face it: when a man becomes so deluded with his power that he dares to say his firm is doing â€śGodâ€™s work,â€ť itâ€™s no stretch to believe they are about as dirty as anyone can get.
The evidence of this â€śdirtinessâ€ť has been out there for a long time. Just think of all Goldman minions who have graced the many slots in our governmentâ€”proudly and admirably through the years, Iâ€™m sure, extending Godâ€™s work again.
Divine intervention is truly required to keep track of all the times youâ€™ve watched TV, against your better judgment, to be treated to some ex-Goldman hack posing for a camera, elucidating on simple or arcane topics with the usual hubris-filled self-important edge seemingly groomed at the firm, to tell us â€śthe way it is.â€ť
You can just read the expression on the face of the hapless info-guy or gal who gets the Goldman scoop: â€śWow! Heâ€™s from Goldman.â€ť Well, I donâ€™t usually think about whether or not â€śheâ€™s from Goldman,â€ť when the interview is over. I just get an urge to go take a hot shower hoping and praying I havenâ€™t run out of soap.
Well, the fact is, Goldman hires some smart people. Goldman has information flow that dwarfs anything else the rest of us have. That tends to make smart Goldman people seem even smarter. So when a Goldman man talks, it seems to the sycophantic financial reporting types as if Moses has once again brought the tablets down from the mountain. Maybe this was to blame for Mr. B thinking he was doing â€śGodâ€™s work.â€ť Or could there be a much more logical explanation for all of this?
Letâ€™s assume Mr. B is a mere mortal after all. He feels pain. He bleeds like we do. He puts his pants on one leg at a time. Letâ€™s also assume he really isnâ€™t a bad guy (and he may be a very nice guy; I honestly cannot say having not had the opportunity to hang out and have a beer or two with him; which usually is quite telling). Assuming all this, maybe he just couldnâ€™t tell us that God in his eyes was John Paulson. After all, the analogy fits. Mr. Paulson makes more money than God ever did. He is considered a God by the hedge fund world and by his investors.
So, just maybe people like me may owe Mr. B and apology. It appears the SEC may have cleared it all up for usâ€”yes, Goldman was doing Godâ€™s work after all. Thatâ€™s what we get when we jump to conclusions. Damn those Goldman guys are smart.
At least now we know which side of the trade God was on.
On Friday, I talked about liquidity at the margin possibly draining away from the Chinese credit bubble. Most are blaming the Goldman affair for the plunge in global markets weâ€™ve seen, and the big risk bid in the dollar. I am sure there is truth to that. From an economic point of view, it is yet another hit to credit at the margin, after all is said and done. It gives our glorious overseers, the US government regulatory Keystone Cops, not Goldman, the opportunity to control even more credit in guise of â€śhelping us.â€ť
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China led emerging-market declines as the Shanghai Composite Index slid 4.9 percent after the government told banks to stop loans for third-home purchases. [Chart not available in text format.]
And besides this, the rising Greek-German bond spread canâ€™t be exactly comforting to marketsâ€¦.. [Chart not available in text format.]
â€¦we know itâ€™s not for the euro.
EURUSD Daily: Slipping back into that nice channel down? Is the â€ścorrectionâ€ť history? [Chart not available in text format.]
Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.comCAPITALIZING ON LONG-TERM CURRENCY TRENDS
Will the dollar keep rising over the next few years?
We think so.
Will it be an all-or-nothing bet against the dollar over the next few years?
We think not.
Capturing returns from a rising dollar is only one piece of strategy that can guide you toward profits in the currency arena over the next few years. Some currencies will fare poorly; others will surprise; and still some will take the tortoise approach (slow and steady wins the race.)
What kind of approach will you have during the US dollar bull market?
Click here to learn about Currency Investor â€“ our approach to longer-term currency market trends.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."