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Monday April 19, 2010 - 13:45:13 GMT
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Goldman Fallout Sends U.S. Dollar Higher; Yen also Rises

The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen as traders seek shelter in lower yielding assets following Friday’s news that the SEC was charging Goldman Sachs with defrauding investors.

 

The developing situation is wreaking havoc on commodity-linked currencies since Goldman is a major player in this type of market. Traders are also taking protection against the possibility that this SEC investigation will involve other major investment banking firms. This is also coming at a time when the government is pushing hard for more financial firm regulations. The U.K. and the E.U. are also reportedly ordering their own investigation into Goldman’s practices.

 

Additional pressure is coming from developing problems in Greece. Traders expect Greece to trigger the mechanism that allows it to tap the recently approved rescue package. Late last week the spread between Greek Bonds and the German Bund widened to over 400 basis points for the first time since the bailout plan was approved. This indicated that traders were nervous and concerned about Greece’s ability to survive. Others believe that the $61 billion bailout figure will not be enough to ensure Greece’s viability.

 

Finally, traders are also pressuring commodity prices in anticipation of a Yuan revaluation. Many traders feel this move will pressure the Dollar versus the Japanese while helping to boost the U.S. Dollar against the New Zealand and Australian Currencies.

 

Today is a light day for economic reports. At 10:00 a.m. EDT the government releases its Leading Indicators report. Investors are looking for a 1.1% increase. This report should not have that much impact on trading although it will signal that the economy is still on its road to recovery.

 

Sharply lower Gold and Crude Oil has helped wipe out almost all of this month’s gains by the Canadian Dollar. Losses may be limited, however, because of the Bank of Canada meeting on April 20th. Traders expect the BoC to give a strong indication of an interest rate hike sooner than expected. The Canadian financial markets are indicating that the next hike is likely on June 1 rather than the previously anticipated July 1.

 

Fear that the SEC’s investigation of Goldman Sachs may indicate more financial regulation of U.S. financial markets and a reworking of the rules for foreign banks is helping to pressure equities and commodities, giving the lower yielding Japanese Yen a boost. Traders who have borrowed in Yen are being forced to sell higher yielding assets to use the proceeds to pay back the loans. This is triggering the weakness in the USD JPY this morning.

 

The NZD USD and AUD USD are trading lower along with commodities and equities. Not only are traders dumping higher yielding currencies and higher risk assets because of Goldman’s problems, but traders are also anticipating that a revaluation of the Yuan by China will drastically reduce demand for Australian and New Zealand raw materials.

 

With the situation in Greece continuing to unravel and the traders still sorting out the details of the Goldman law suit and its impact on the markets, look for the Dollar to be a big winner today against most majors with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Traders seem to be expecting both problems to escalate before they get better.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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