Goldman Fallout Sends U.S. Dollar Higher; Yen also Rises
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against most major
currencies except the Japanese Yen as traders seek shelter in lower yielding
assets following Fridayâ€™s news that the SEC was charging Goldman Sachs with
The developing situation is wreaking havoc on
commodity-linked currencies since Goldman is a major player in this type of
market. Traders are also taking protection against the possibility that this
SEC investigation will involve other major investment banking firms. This is
also coming at a time when the government is pushing hard for more financial
firm regulations. The U.K.
and the E.U. are also reportedly ordering their own investigation into
Additional pressure is coming from developing problems in Greece. Traders
to trigger the mechanism that allows it to tap the recently approved rescue
package. Late last week the spread between Greek Bonds and the German Bund
widened to over 400 basis points for the first time since the bailout plan was
approved. This indicated that traders were nervous and concerned about Greeceâ€™s
ability to survive. Others believe that the $61 billion bailout figure will not
be enough to ensure Greeceâ€™s
Finally, traders are also pressuring commodity prices in
anticipation of a Yuan revaluation. Many traders feel this move will pressure
the Dollar versus the Japanese while helping to boost the U.S. Dollar against
the New Zealand
and Australian Currencies.
Today is a light day for economic reports. At 10:00 a.m. EDT
the government releases its Leading Indicators report. Investors are looking
for a 1.1% increase. This report should not have that much impact on trading
although it will signal that the economy is still on its road to recovery.
Sharply lower Gold and Crude Oil has helped wipe out almost
all of this monthâ€™s gains by the Canadian Dollar. Losses may be limited,
however, because of the Bank of Canada meeting on April 20th. Traders expect
the BoC to give a strong indication of an interest rate hike sooner than
expected. The Canadian financial markets are indicating that the next hike is
likely on June 1 rather than the previously anticipated July 1.
Fear that the SECâ€™s investigation of Goldman Sachs may
indicate more financial regulation of U.S. financial markets and a reworking of
the rules for foreign banks is helping to pressure equities and commodities,
giving the lower yielding Japanese Yen a boost. Traders who have borrowed in
Yen are being forced to sell higher yielding assets to use the proceeds to pay
back the loans. This is triggering the weakness in the USD JPY this morning.
The NZD USD and AUD USD are trading lower along with
commodities and equities. Not only are traders dumping higher yielding
currencies and higher risk assets because of Goldmanâ€™s problems, but traders
are also anticipating that a revaluation of the Yuan by China will drastically reduce demand for
Australian and New Zealand
With the situation in Greece continuing to unravel and
the traders still sorting out the details of the Goldman law suit and its
impact on the markets, look for the Dollar to be a big winner today against
most majors with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Traders seem to be expecting
both problems to escalate before they get better.
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