Risk Adverse Traders Selling Higher Risk Stocks and Commodities
Fallout from the SEC/Goldman Sachs situation is pressuring U.S. equity
markets overnight. Last weekâ€™s closing price reversal top in the June E-mini
S&P 500 has been confirmed which sets up two scenarios. The first scenario
calling for a daily chart break to 1190.75 has already happened. The second
scenario calls for a break to 1178.75.
This appears to be developing into the worst threat to the
bull market since it began in March 2009. Going into Fridayâ€™s action, this
â€śmatureâ€ť bull market has been struggling despite better than expected earnings
and an improving economy. Long traders have been coming in everyday looking for
a reason to sell and may have gotten it on Friday. This often happens in bull
markets because long traders look at the size of the rally and wonder how the
market is going to sustain itself if the buying stops because of lofty price
Traders should watch to see what happens in the June E-mini
S&P 500 following a test of 1171.00. A breakout through this level will
turn the main trend to down for the first time since March 1st. A move through
this level could set up an even steeper decline to 1123.25.
The June Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes rallied late
Friday in a flight to safety rally as equities and commodities broke hard.
Despite lower stocks and commodities this morning, however, the Treasuries are
trading flat. Conditions are ripe for the rallies in both of these instruments
to continue, but the huge amount of supply in the markets may be helping to
June Gold is under pressure because of the stronger Dollar.
Based on the last swing of $1086.10 to $1170.70, look for a correction into a
retracement zone at $1128.40 to $1118.40. Short-term oversold conditions could
trigger a technical bounce following a test of this zone. The main trend
remains up and the current move suggests that this is only a correction but
sentiment could shift if $1118.40 is violated.
The main trend turned down in June Crude Oil overnight
following a break through the last swing bottom at 83.75. In addition, this
market is currently breaking through a pair of uptrending Gann angles. This
could help further accelerate the break to the downside. Overnight, there was a
technical bounce following a test of 82.45. If this price fails, look for more
selling pressure. Regaining 83.43 may trigger a short-covering rally.
The U.S. Dollar is trading higher against most major
currencies except the Japanese Yen as traders seek shelter in lower yielding
assets following Fridayâ€™s news that the SEC was charging Goldman Sachs with
The developing situation is wreaking havoc on
commodity-linked currencies since Goldman is a major player in this type of
market. Traders are also taking protection against the possibility that this
SEC investigation will involve other major investment banking firms. This is
also coming at a time when the government is pushing hard for more financial
firm regulations. The U.K.
and the E.U. are also reportedly ordering their own investigation into
Additional pressure is coming from developing problems in Greece.
Traders expect Greece
to trigger the mechanism that allows it to tap the recently approved rescue
package. Late last week the spread between Greek Bonds and the German Bund
widened to over 400 basis points for the first time since the bailout plan was
approved. This indicated that traders were nervous and concerned about Greeceâ€™s
ability to survive. Others believe that the $61 billion bailout figure will not
be enough to ensure Greeceâ€™s
Finally, traders are also pressuring commodity prices in
anticipation of a Yuan revaluation. Many traders feel this move will pressure
the Dollar versus the Japanese while helping to boost the U.S. Dollar against
the New Zealand
and Australian currencies.
Today is a light day for economic reports. At 10:00 a.m. EDT
the government releases its Leading Indicators report. Investors are looking
for a 1.1% increase. This report should not have that much impact on trading
although it will signal that the economy is still on its road to recovery.
Sharply lower Gold and Crude Oil has helped wipe out almost
all of this monthâ€™s gains by the June Canadian Dollar. Losses may be limited,
however, because of the Bank of Canada meeting on April 20th. Traders expect
the BoC to give a strong indication of an interest rate hike sooner than
expected. The Canadian financial markets are indicating that the next hike is
likely on June 1 rather than the previously anticipated July 1.
Fear that the SECâ€™s investigation of Goldman Sachs may
indicate more financial regulation of U.S. financial markets and a reworking of
the rules for foreign banks is helping to pressure equities and commodities,
giving the lower yielding Japanese Yen a boost. Traders who have borrowed in
Yen are being forced to sell higher yielding assets to use the proceeds to pay
back the loans. This is triggering the strength in the June Japanese Yen this
With the situation in Greece continuing to unravel and
the traders still sorting out the details of the Goldman law suit and its
impact on the markets, look for the Dollar to be a big winner today against
most majors with the exception of the Japanese Yen. Traders seem to be expecting
both problems to escalate before they get better.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.