Monday March 14, 2005 - 10:07:40 GMT
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Forex Mroning Meeting - European Session, 14/3/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil closed around $54.25 yesterday, recovering come grounds and attempting all-time highs again. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 10.775, confirming the bearish signals on a daily basis it was generating.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3410 level. Barely changing from yesterday’s levels, and proving the economic news to have less real impact on the markets, despite the usual volatility after its release. The trade deficit widened again in the US, when expectations were positive on the number to come out (narrower). Price moved up, down, again up .. and today is down to more or less the same level it was at the beginning of Friday’s session. Therefore, any of the previous analysis is valid for today, with the same support and resistance levels. Dynamic support level is found today at 1.3275. Intraday studies show weakness for the pair, therefore new longs (on a daily basis) must be very careful with this intraday warning signs.
Moving averages overview: EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2708. We have the confirmation of a bullish cross by the moving averages.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – no signal. Indicators watch-level 2: EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.9180 level. Same view as for the EUR, with the only difference that pair is now testing or near a test to the 20-day simple moving average. A brak below it will add some selling pressure to the pair, which has definitely been moving at a slower pace than its european fellows.
Moving averages overview: GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8545. We have the confirmation of the 20-day crossing the 50-day on the upside for some days now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Positive-closing (closing signal today) - flat. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Neutral.
Usd/Chf: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1560 level. The same analysis as for the previous session. However, I see clear long signals on the intraday charts, which still make of the USD/CHF the puzzling pair among the majors. In one hand, we have it below moving averages, having broken fibo levels, etc .. in the other hand we have a possible 1-2-3 bullish formation that could take place, bullish intraday signals, ... forces driving the pair are quite divided, therefore we will watch carefully the price action in coming sessions. If the pair manages to close above 1.1650 on a daily basis, pair turns things into a brighter situation, keep that level in sight.
Moving averages overview: USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2108. We have a bearish cross confirmation of the 20-50 day moving averages for 2 days now.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): USD Negative (no signal). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Positive.
Eur/Gbp: At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6985 level. Pair has lost some momentum, and the attempt to the 0.7030 level looks quite improbable for now. We find ynamic support on the pair around the 0.6940/30 area, so locking-in on current longs to avoid further surprises is the safest action for some time now. We, however, might be taking a reasonable pause in order to get enough momentum to attempt that 0.7030 resistance. It would be very favourable if we could have the moving averages crossing on the upside.
Moving averages overview: pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6849 today. Pair is above both moving averages and looks poised for a possible cross on the upside soon.
Indicators watch: Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Positive – signaled long february,25-. Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1: Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2: Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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