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Monday April 19, 2010 - 18:06:14 GMT
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Stock Trades Now Selling Rallies; Market is Jittery over Goldman News

After an early morning short-covering rally, U.S. equity markets resumed their sell-offs, and are now selling close to their lows. Fallout from the SEC/Goldman Sachs situation is the main reason behind the weakness in the U.S. equity markets. Last week’s closing price reversal top in the June E-mini S&P 500 was confirmed. This pattern sets up a potential break to 1178.75.

The current developing top formation appears to be the worst threat to the bull market since it began in March 2009. Going into Friday’s action, this “mature” bull market had been struggling despite better than expected earnings and an improving economy. Long traders had been coming in everyday looking for a reason to sell and may have gotten it with the Goldman news. This often happens in bull markets because long traders look at the size of the rally and wonder how the market is going to sustain itself if the buying stops because of lofty price levels.

Traders should watch to see what happens in the June E-mini S&P 500 following a test of 1171.00. A break through this level will turn the main trend to down for the first time since March 1st. A move through this level could set up an even steeper decline to 1123.25.

The June Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes rallied late Friday in a flight to safety rally as equities and commodities broke hard, but have been trading flat throughout Monday’s session. Despite lower stocks and commodities at the mid-session, however, the Treasuries have been unable to mount any serious flight-to-quality rally. Conditions are ripe for the rallies in both of these instruments to continue, but the huge amount of supply in the markets may be helping to limit gains.

June Gold was under pressure earlier in the trading session because of the stronger Dollar but fought back to nearly unchanged as the Dollar gave back some of its gains. Based on the last swing of $1086.10 to $1170.70, look for a correction into a retracement zone at $1128.40 to $1118.40. Short-term oversold conditions could trigger a technical bounce following a test of this zone. The main trend remains up and the current move suggests that this is only a correction but sentiment could shift if $1118.40 is violated.

Jude Crude Oil is experiencing a technical bounce after early weakness. The main trend turned down in June Crude Oil overnight following a break through the last swing bottom at 83.75. In addition, this market is currently breaking through a pair of uptrending Gann angles. This could help further accelerate the break to the downside. Overnight, there was a technical bounce following a test of 82.45. If this price fails, look for more selling pressure. Regaining 83.43 may trigger a short-covering rally.

The U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen posted strong gains overnight but profit-taking during the New York session helped these markets pare their gains ahead of the mid-session.

The rallies in these two currencies were triggered by aggressive selling of risky stocks and commodities. Weaker equities, gold and crude oil sent a message to traders that risk was going to be taken off the table in the wake of the last week’s fraud lawsuit against Goldman Sachs by the SEC. Investors have been moving money to less risky, lower yielding currencies since Friday’s surprise announcement on speculation the investigation may broaden.

The June Euro continued its slide on speculation that Greece would have to tap its rescue loans to meet its short-term obligations. The spread between Greek Bonds and German Bunds continues to raise concerns that Greece is on the brink of collapse if it can’t service its debt.

The June British Pound was down sharply overnight as concerns continued to mount about the possibility of a hung parliament following the May 6th election. Investors are worried that a virtual tie between the Labor Party and the Conservative Party will mean that the next administration will have a difficult time working out solutions to its current budget deficit crisis.

The falling Euro helped send the June Swiss Franc lower early in the trading session. Traders are raising concerns that the Swiss National Bank will have to continue to intervene to protect the Swiss economy, especially its exports.

Increased demand for lower risk assets is helped to give the June Japanese Yen a boost overnight although oversold conditions led to a fast short-covering rally in the Dollar/Yen into the mid-session. Falling equity markets could lead to a turnaround in the June Yen into the close.

The sharp sell-off in gold and crude oil triggered a sizeable break in the June Canadian Dollar at the mid-session. This break is most likely profit-taking rather than fresh shorting. Tomorrow the Bank of Canada meets to discuss monetary policy. The Canadian financial markets are indicating that investors expect the BoC to lean toward increasing interest rates as early as June 1st rather than the earlier speculated July 1st.

 

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