Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 April 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3415
level and was capped around the $1.3495 level. The common currency pushed lower as traders
speculated that more countries may ask the U.S. for information about Goldman
Sachs‚Äôs business practices, particularly with regard to the manner in which
Goldman structured some sub-prime mortgage securities that were sold to international
investors. Germany is said to be
pressing the U.S. for additional information.The common currency came off on this news on the premise that the
enforcement action against Goldman may have a dampening effect on global
equities, notwithstanding the fact that U.S. equities rallied today.Also, the euro moved lower as the Icelandic
volcano that erupted last week continues to snarl air traffic, leading to a
general disruption of business activity around the Continent.Data released in the U.S. today saw March
leading indicators print at +1.4%, up from the revised prior reading of
+0.4%.Outgoing Federal Reserve Vice
Chairman Kohn reported regulators should improve their data analysis while
Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the economy is recovering.President Obama will be speak in New York on
Thursday at Cooper Union and Treasury Secretary Geithner today noted new
regulations are needed so that the U.S. financial system is not vulnerable to ‚Äúthe
reckless choices of individual firms.‚ÄĚ In
eurozone news, EMU-16 February construction output was off 3.3% m/m and
15.2% y/y.Euro bids are cited
around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested offers around the ¬•92.45 level and was supported around
the ¬•91.60 level. Data released in Japan
today saw March consumer confidence print at 41.0, up from the prior reading of
40.0, while March Tokyo department store sales improved to -5.1% y/y from the
prior reading of -6.5% y/y.Other data
saw March Nationwide department store sales improve to -3.5% y/y.February industry index data will be released
overnight followed by March machine tool orders and March convenience store
sales.The Nikkei 225 stock index lost 1.74%
to close at ¬•10,908.77. U.S. dollar
offers are cited around the ¬•96.85 level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as the single currency tested offers around the ¬•124.65 level and was supported
around the ¬•123.15 level.The British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen as sterling tested offers around the ¬•141.75 level while the Swiss franc moved higher vis-√†-vis
the yen and tested offers around the ¬•86.95 level. In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan
as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8275 in the over-the-counter market, up from
CNY 6.8255. China‚Äôs currency regulator
today noted that China‚Äôs capital account surplus expanded to US$ 144.8 billion
in 2009, up from US$ 19 billion in 2008.The perception of higher interest rates in China is likely to fuel more
China-bound investment capital.Many traders
believe China will revalue its yuan‚Äôs trading band imminently, possibly by
widening its trading band by up to 3%.
British pound depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested bids
around the US$ 1.5190 level and was capped around the $1.5340 level. Data to
be released in the U.K. tomorrow include March consumer price inflation.Prime Minister Brown and Tory leader Cameron
debated last week ahead of the 6 May general election.Many political pundits believe the contest
will result in a hung Parliament and some now say the general election is too
close to call with Cameron perhaps still holding a slight lead over Brown.Data released in the U.K. last week saw March
Nationwide consumer confidence print at 72, down from a revised +81.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140
level.The euro moved higher vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single
currency tested offers around the ¬£0.8840 level and was supported around the ¬£0.8785
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0690 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0615 level. Data released in Switzerland last week saw
March producer and import prices climb 0.5% m/m and 0.0% y/y.Swiss National Bank Vice Chairman Jordan last
week said regulators cannot allow governments to be ‚Äúblackmailed‚ÄĚ into
protecting banks from collapse during future financial crises.There was talk yesterday that the Swiss
National Bank may have sold francs for euro this week in an intervention to try
and support the Swiss export sector.U.S.
dollar offers are cited around the CHF 1.0920 level.The
euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single currency tested bids
around the CHF 1.4360 level while the
British pound moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested bids around
the CHF 1.6205 level.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
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15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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