The U.S. Dollar finished higher against most major
currencies but intraday profit-taking helped the Greenback close well off its
The early session rally in the Dollar began overnight in the
wake of a lawsuit filed by the SEC against Goldman Sachs on Friday. Aggressive
selling by investors of risky stocks and commodities helped trigger the rally.
Weaker equities, gold and crude oil sent a message that risk was going to be
taken off the table. Investors have been moving money to less risky, lower
yielding currencies since Fridayâ€™s surprise announcement on speculation the
investigation may broaden.
After an early session surge, the Dollar weakened throughout
the day as commodity and stock indices recovered after anticipated
follow-through selling during the New
York session failed to materialize.
The EUR USD continued its slide early on speculation that Greece would
have to tap its rescue loans to meet its short-term obligations. The spread
between Greek Bonds and German Bunds continued to raise concerns that Greece was on
the brink of collapse if it couldnâ€™t service its debt. News that European air
traffic resumed after being shutdown for several days seemed to give equity
markets a boost which helped trigger a turnaround in the Euro late in the
The British Pound was down sharply overnight and early in
the New York
session as concerns continued to mount about the possibility of a hung
parliament following the May 6th election. Investors are worried that a virtual
tie between the Labor Party and the Conservative Party will mean that the next
administration will have a difficult time working out solutions to its current
budget deficit crisis.Continue to look
for volatility as traders speculate on the direction of the British Pound
following the release of pre-election poll results.
The falling Euro
helped send the USD CHF higher early in the trading session. Traders raised
concerns that the Swiss National Bank would have to continue to intervene to
protect the Swiss economy, especially its exports.
Increased demand for lower risk assets helped give the
Japanese Yen a boost overnight as nervous traders sold off positions in higher
risk, higher yielding assets. The inability to break stocks and commodities
after a sharply lower opening fueled an intraday rally in the USD JPY that
carried over into the close.
The sharp sell-off in gold and crude oil triggered a strong
rally in the USD CAD overnight, but the lack of selling pressure throughout the
day helped the Canadian Dollar recover some of its earlier loss. This rally was
most likely short-covering rather than buying. On Tuesday the Bank of Canada
meets to discuss monetary policy. The Canadian financial markets are indicating
that investors expect the BoC to lean toward increasing interest rates as early
as June 1st rather than the earlier speculated July 1st.
Falling demand for higher risk assets as well as speculation
the Chinese will revalue the Yuan helped pressure the AUD USD and NZD USD early
in the trading session. Both the Aussie and Kiwi turned around about
mid-session after it became clear to investors that there would be no
follow-through to the downside in the equity complex.
Short-term oversold conditions also helped both of these
currency pairs cut their earlier losses. New Zealand Dollar traders cut their
losses on speculation the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may talk about hiking
interest rates some time after June because of the improving economy. The RBNZ
meets on April 28th.
Forex Trading News
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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