ropean Market Update: German ZEW survey at highest level since Oct; UK inflation exceeds expectations
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
European Market Update: German ZEW survey at highest level since Oct; UK inflation exceeds expectations
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) raised all of its key rates by 25bps (as expected). The REPO raised to 5.25% from 5.00%; Reverse Repo Rate to 3.75% from 3.50%; Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 6.00% from 5.75% - (GE) Germany Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.8%e - (JP) Japan Mar Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 262.2% v 262.1% prior - (JP) Japan Mar Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -4.9% v -4.7% prior - (NV) Netherlands Feb Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -0.7% prior - (SW) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) maintained the Repo rate at 0.25% (as expected) - (TT) Taiwan Mar Export Orders Y/Y: 43.7% v 40.1%e - (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -0.4% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 2.6%e - (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Sales M/M: -2.6% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 5.1% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Feb Current Account Seasonally adj: -â‚¬3.9B v -â‚¬1.7 prior; Current Account NSA: -â‚¬5.2B v -â‚¬14.7B prior - (NO) Norway Q1 Existing Homes Q/Q: 3.4% v 0.0% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Mar Unemployment Rate SA: 4.5%e v4.6% prior - (UK) Mar CPI M/M 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.8%e - (UK) Mar RPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.1%e; RPIX Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.5%e; Retail Price Index: v 219.2 prior - (EU) Euro Zone Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: 46.0 v 39.3e - (GE) Germany Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: 53.0 v 45.1e (highest reading since Oct 2009); Current Situation Survey: -39.2 v -48.0e - (GR) Greece Jan Unemployment Rate: 11.3% v 10.2% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets opened well bid as a rebound wave continued from the Asian trading session. Following yesterday's lower rotations in airlines and banks, those sectors have bounced higher today. Banks have been lifted by a diffusion of concerns regarding SEC charges and expected block-buster earnings from Goldman Sachs [GS] in the NY premarket. Rebound in airlines and travel names has been more muted as volcanic ash continues to bellow from Iceland, presenting new complications to what appeared to be an improving outlook. In further macro themes, the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI), as expected raised by 25bps its Repo, Reverse Repo and Cash Reserve Repo rates. Indian equities printed session highs following the action, there had been speculation, with some analysts calling for 50bps and higher rises. Individual earnings themes have continued to be supportive for European equities. Strong prelim figures from Daimler [DAI.GE], showing a return to positive net figures and improving unit 2010 guidance sent shares sharply higher. The broader automotive sector followed this rotation. Continued strong results from the pharma sector came from Novartis [NOVN.SZ]. Despite supportive ZEW figures and strong auction results, markets have traded in a choppy range. Trading has been confined to a tight top and bottom boundary, but markets have bounced erratically between the ends. Turnover volumes of the DAX have surged throughout the session on strong interest in auto and financial names.
- Individual equities: Novartis [NOVN.SZ]: Reports Q1 $1.29 v $1.23e, R$12.1B v $12Be; Reaffirms FY10 group expectations. || Tesco [TSCO.UK]: Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax Â£3.39B v Â£3.4Be, Rev ex VAT Â£62.5B v Â£58.5Be; UK LFL ex petrol +2.6%. || SAB SAB.UK: Provides Trading update: FY organic Lager volumes seen flat y/y, at 2009 levels. || Associated British Food [ABF.UK]: Reports H1 Op profit Â£336Mv Â£260M y/y, Rev Â£4.8B v Â£4.3B y/y. || Tui Travel [TT.UK]: To raise approx Â£500M via convertible bond and additional bank facilities (approx 15% of market cap). || Safran [SAF.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬2.42B -2.5% y/y; inline with FY outlook for revenue. ||
- Speakers: Reportedly German source stated that currencies were not focus points at the upcoming G7, G20 or IMF meeting*** German's Finance Ministry commented that EMU States would not aid Greece through bond purchases *** India Fin Min Mukherjee commented on the RBI interest rate hike and stated that the India Central Bank (RBI) policy complemented the government objectives to contain inflation while promoting economic growth. The Fin Min believed that it was time to move back towards a 'neutral' interest rate to control inflationary expectations. The Ministry forecasted FY11 inflation below 5.5% level. *** Thai Central Bank stated that it saw no indication of capital outflows and that the Baht remained competitive for trade *** German Zew Economists commented on its survey and noted that data was aided by better exports and that positive expectations seemed to be decisively reinforced by exports and stable income orders. It expected German business activity to continue recovery from crisis over the next 6 months. Inflation expectations remain very moderate and majority of people do not expect the ECB to raise interest rates over the next six month but did note a slight rise in ratio in those survey for a possible rate hike *** ZEW's Franz reiterated that the German export sector was stabilizing the country's economy *** Sweden Riksbank Dep Gov Oberg commented that recent wage agreements were in line with expectations ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The session seemed characterized by a sense of restored investor confidence which stabilized equity markets, aided energy and metals and softened the dollar and JPY against the major European pairs. Several European debt agencies had better-than-expected auction results with Greece selling an extra â‚¬450M in its 13-week auction although at a steep 3.65% rate. The peripheral situation continued to simmer as spreads continued to widen with the 10-year Greek/German widening to another fresh 11-year level above the 470bps area. There were no surprises in the interest rate decisions with India RBI raising rates by 25bps in its major rates while Sweden held steady. EUR/USD holding above the 1.35 area while GBP/USD lingered around the 1.54 handle. USD/JPY reapproaching the 93 neighborhood.
- Geo-political:Iceland continues to punish Europe as plans to accelerate openings of air space have been increasingly placed on hold. A fresh eruption of ash on Monday has once again closed all air operations in England and Ireland under 20K feet (parts of Scotland are scheduled to reopen later in the session). France and Germany are operating limited international flights but are still closed for inter-European air travel. The most recent eruption is poised to once again close vast areas of air space just as operators had hoped a full schedule wind up would be possible. BAA, and AerLingus have been the most recent to provide details of financial losses due to the shut down. *** South Korean news sources have stated that North Korea may be readying itself for a nuclear test that may come as soon as May or June. A test would be the state's third detonation, the first two broadly having been classified as partial fissile successes. South Korean authorities have played down the press report. South Korea is still investigating the circumstances that saw an explosion and sinking of a patrol vessel in March off the coast of a disputed island border with the North
***Notes/Observations: - India central Bank raises Key rates by 25bps (as expected) - Investor confidence seemed restored in session with Equities steady, oil/Gold firmer and USD and JPY softer - Greece Debt Agency sells additional â‚¬450M in its 13-week Bill auction at 3.65% (total amount â‚¬1.95B) - UK inflation exceeds forecasts - German ZEW beats expectations thanks to export sector
***Looking Ahead*** - (GR) Greece Feb Current Account: No est v -â‚¬3.7B prior - (PO) Portugal Mar Producer Prices M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior - (RU) Russia Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.6% prior - (RU) Russia Mar Retail Sales (Real) M/M: 6.2%e v -3.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.3% prior - (SP) Spain Feb Trade Balance: No est v -â‚¬4.5B prior - 7:45 ICSC weekly Chain Store Sales - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Producer Prices M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.8%e v -2.4% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Sold Industrial Outputt M/M: 18.2%e v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: 10.1%e v 9.2% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook weekly chain store sales - 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain rates at 0.25% - 9:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Tax Collections (BRL): 61.3Be v 53.5B prior - 9:00 (EU) EU Barroso in Parliament Q&A - 10:30 (EU) ECB's Liikanen - 11:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke, US Tsy Geithner testify at House on Lehman Brothers - 12:00 (EU) ECB's Weber - 16:30 EIA energy inventories
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.