ropean Market Update: German ZEW survey at highest level since Oct; UK inflation exceeds expectations
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
European Market Update: German ZEW survey at highest level since Oct; UK inflation exceeds expectations
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (IN) India Central Bank (RBI) raised all of its key rates by 25bps (as expected). The REPO raised to 5.25% from 5.00%; Reverse Repo Rate to 3.75% from 3.50%; Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 6.00% from 5.75% - (GE) Germany Mar Producer Prices M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.5% v -1.8%e - (JP) Japan Mar Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: 262.2% v 262.1% prior - (JP) Japan Mar Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: -4.9% v -4.7% prior - (NV) Netherlands Feb Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -0.7% prior - (SW) Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) maintained the Repo rate at 0.25% (as expected) - (TT) Taiwan Mar Export Orders Y/Y: 43.7% v 40.1%e - (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -0.4% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 5.6% v 2.6%e - (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Sales M/M: -2.6% v -2.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.2% v 5.1% prior - (EU) Euro-Zone Feb Current Account Seasonally adj: -â‚¬3.9B v -â‚¬1.7 prior; Current Account NSA: -â‚¬5.2B v -â‚¬14.7B prior - (NO) Norway Q1 Existing Homes Q/Q: 3.4% v 0.0% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Mar Unemployment Rate SA: 4.5%e v4.6% prior - (UK) Mar CPI M/M 0.6% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 3.0% v 2.8%e - (UK) Mar RPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.4% v 4.1%e; RPIX Y/Y: 4.8% v 4.5%e; Retail Price Index: v 219.2 prior - (EU) Euro Zone Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: 46.0 v 39.3e - (GE) Germany Apr ZEW Economic Sentiment: 53.0 v 45.1e (highest reading since Oct 2009); Current Situation Survey: -39.2 v -48.0e - (GR) Greece Jan Unemployment Rate: 11.3% v 10.2% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets opened well bid as a rebound wave continued from the Asian trading session. Following yesterday's lower rotations in airlines and banks, those sectors have bounced higher today. Banks have been lifted by a diffusion of concerns regarding SEC charges and expected block-buster earnings from Goldman Sachs [GS] in the NY premarket. Rebound in airlines and travel names has been more muted as volcanic ash continues to bellow from Iceland, presenting new complications to what appeared to be an improving outlook. In further macro themes, the Indian Reserve Bank (RBI), as expected raised by 25bps its Repo, Reverse Repo and Cash Reserve Repo rates. Indian equities printed session highs following the action, there had been speculation, with some analysts calling for 50bps and higher rises. Individual earnings themes have continued to be supportive for European equities. Strong prelim figures from Daimler [DAI.GE], showing a return to positive net figures and improving unit 2010 guidance sent shares sharply higher. The broader automotive sector followed this rotation. Continued strong results from the pharma sector came from Novartis [NOVN.SZ]. Despite supportive ZEW figures and strong auction results, markets have traded in a choppy range. Trading has been confined to a tight top and bottom boundary, but markets have bounced erratically between the ends. Turnover volumes of the DAX have surged throughout the session on strong interest in auto and financial names.
- Individual equities: Novartis [NOVN.SZ]: Reports Q1 $1.29 v $1.23e, R$12.1B v $12Be; Reaffirms FY10 group expectations. || Tesco [TSCO.UK]: Reports Prelim FY09 Pretax Â£3.39B v Â£3.4Be, Rev ex VAT Â£62.5B v Â£58.5Be; UK LFL ex petrol +2.6%. || SAB SAB.UK: Provides Trading update: FY organic Lager volumes seen flat y/y, at 2009 levels. || Associated British Food [ABF.UK]: Reports H1 Op profit Â£336Mv Â£260M y/y, Rev Â£4.8B v Â£4.3B y/y. || Tui Travel [TT.UK]: To raise approx Â£500M via convertible bond and additional bank facilities (approx 15% of market cap). || Safran [SAF.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬2.42B -2.5% y/y; inline with FY outlook for revenue. ||
- Speakers: Reportedly German source stated that currencies were not focus points at the upcoming G7, G20 or IMF meeting*** German's Finance Ministry commented that EMU States would not aid Greece through bond purchases *** India Fin Min Mukherjee commented on the RBI interest rate hike and stated that the India Central Bank (RBI) policy complemented the government objectives to contain inflation while promoting economic growth. The Fin Min believed that it was time to move back towards a 'neutral' interest rate to control inflationary expectations. The Ministry forecasted FY11 inflation below 5.5% level. *** Thai Central Bank stated that it saw no indication of capital outflows and that the Baht remained competitive for trade *** German Zew Economists commented on its survey and noted that data was aided by better exports and that positive expectations seemed to be decisively reinforced by exports and stable income orders. It expected German business activity to continue recovery from crisis over the next 6 months. Inflation expectations remain very moderate and majority of people do not expect the ECB to raise interest rates over the next six month but did note a slight rise in ratio in those survey for a possible rate hike *** ZEW's Franz reiterated that the German export sector was stabilizing the country's economy *** Sweden Riksbank Dep Gov Oberg commented that recent wage agreements were in line with expectations ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The session seemed characterized by a sense of restored investor confidence which stabilized equity markets, aided energy and metals and softened the dollar and JPY against the major European pairs. Several European debt agencies had better-than-expected auction results with Greece selling an extra â‚¬450M in its 13-week auction although at a steep 3.65% rate. The peripheral situation continued to simmer as spreads continued to widen with the 10-year Greek/German widening to another fresh 11-year level above the 470bps area. There were no surprises in the interest rate decisions with India RBI raising rates by 25bps in its major rates while Sweden held steady. EUR/USD holding above the 1.35 area while GBP/USD lingered around the 1.54 handle. USD/JPY reapproaching the 93 neighborhood.
- Geo-political:Iceland continues to punish Europe as plans to accelerate openings of air space have been increasingly placed on hold. A fresh eruption of ash on Monday has once again closed all air operations in England and Ireland under 20K feet (parts of Scotland are scheduled to reopen later in the session). France and Germany are operating limited international flights but are still closed for inter-European air travel. The most recent eruption is poised to once again close vast areas of air space just as operators had hoped a full schedule wind up would be possible. BAA, and AerLingus have been the most recent to provide details of financial losses due to the shut down. *** South Korean news sources have stated that North Korea may be readying itself for a nuclear test that may come as soon as May or June. A test would be the state's third detonation, the first two broadly having been classified as partial fissile successes. South Korean authorities have played down the press report. South Korea is still investigating the circumstances that saw an explosion and sinking of a patrol vessel in March off the coast of a disputed island border with the North
***Notes/Observations: - India central Bank raises Key rates by 25bps (as expected) - Investor confidence seemed restored in session with Equities steady, oil/Gold firmer and USD and JPY softer - Greece Debt Agency sells additional â‚¬450M in its 13-week Bill auction at 3.65% (total amount â‚¬1.95B) - UK inflation exceeds forecasts - German ZEW beats expectations thanks to export sector
***Looking Ahead*** - (GR) Greece Feb Current Account: No est v -â‚¬3.7B prior - (PO) Portugal Mar Producer Prices M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.1% prior - (RU) Russia Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.6% prior - (RU) Russia Mar Retail Sales (Real) M/M: 6.2%e v -3.5% prior; Y/Y: 2.4%e v 1.3% prior - (SP) Spain Feb Trade Balance: No est v -â‚¬4.5B prior - 7:45 ICSC weekly Chain Store Sales - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Producer Prices M/M: -0.1%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -2.8%e v -2.4% prior - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Sold Industrial Outputt M/M: 18.2%e v 3.1% prior; Y/Y: 10.1%e v 9.2% prior - 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr IBGE CPI IPCA-15 M/M: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior - 8:55 (US) Redbook weekly chain store sales - 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Expected to maintain rates at 0.25% - 9:00 (BR) Brazil Mar Tax Collections (BRL): 61.3Be v 53.5B prior - 9:00 (EU) EU Barroso in Parliament Q&A - 10:30 (EU) ECB's Liikanen - 11:00 (US) Fed's Bernanke, US Tsy Geithner testify at House on Lehman Brothers - 12:00 (EU) ECB's Weber - 16:30 EIA energy inventories
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