20:00 GMT- Apr 20 (global-view.com) We have been zeroing in on the risk trades recently as they can be a very useful indicator of general USD sentiment. By risk trades we look at the three commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD), gold, oil and equities. When they are all moving together, they are supportive of USD movements in the opposite direction vs. Europe. If they are not moving together, they might not provide a lot of directional support. On Tuesday, the risk trades were mostly higher but did not provide much support to the Euro-currencies because the risk trades were not universally strong.
Fundamentally we are in political markets. Political markets can be difficult to trade because decisions and the timing of those decisions can be very hard to predict. The Goldman Sachs fraud investigation regarding mortgage backed securities boils down to a political or administrative matter that could drag on for a very long time. We also don't know where it might go next. Also, other firms might become involved, etc.
The Greek debt situation is similar in that its ultimate path is not obvious. We had thought that the bailout plan would have been put in place months ago, but it continues to drag on, This week there has been talk that Portugal is going to require some sort of help next. The financial and forex markets are having difficulty digesting these events and to a certain extent have pulled back into their shells. German ZEW data were stronger than expected. Even the Icelandic volcano has had a dampening impact on trade.
The EURUSD is down on the day while the EURGBP is down. The GBPUSD is up. The solidity of the EU accord to backstop the Greek finances is being questioned. IMF issues are being raised as well. There is an outside chance that the apparent accord could unravel with negative consequences for the EUR.
In the GBP, markets are zeroed in on the May 6 U.K. general election. An expected a close vote has traders waiting for new election headlines at any time. Latest polls suggest that the odds of a hung Parliament are rising. This is the worst case scenario according to some. With no party winning a clear majority difficult decisions that must be made could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play with negative implications.
Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is continues to trade a narrow range. Some are noting that the SNB has changed intervention tactics. The talk is the SNB has has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. CHF a lot of the time. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is higher, and the EURJPY cross is stronger. More Toushin bonds are set for issuance this week and should undermine the unit. The Hatoyama government favors an easier exchange rate and continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth. Junior ruling party lawmakers (DPJ) have called on the government to push USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japanese vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade is back on today. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are higher. The Bank of Canada decided to keep rates stable today, but in its text sent a signal that rates could be hiked as early as its next meeting on June 1. Canadian FinMin Flaherty recently suggested little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are up along with the other risk trades. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.
Far East equities closed mixed. European bourses closed higher. U.S. equities are better. U.S. Treasuries are still watching the psychological 4.00% level in the 10-yr note. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.81%, +1 bps. Bonds are used as a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS:No key data are due Wednesday from the Far East . In Europe , U.K. Average Earnings and the latest Bank of England policy minutes are scheduled. In the Eurozone, the Belgian Leading Economic Indicator is often used as a predictor of the German IFO Survey due Thursday. In North America , weekly mortgage statistics and energy inventory data are slated.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH to Medium- Wed --14:15 GMT-- US- Industrial Production
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Wed -- 15:00 GMT-- CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.