The Bank of Canada voted this morning to leave interest
rates at 0.25% but strongly hinted that interest rates would increase sooner
than expected because of the strong economic growth and the fear of inflation.
For over a year, the BoC has indicated that rates would remain low until at
least July 1. Todayâ€™s policy statement indicates that June 1 is likely the date
rates will begin to rise.
The policy statement issued by the BoC included the
following, â€śWith recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such
extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen
the degree of monetary stimulus.â€ť With this statement, the BoC removed a
commitment made several months ago to keep interest rates at current levels
through the middle of the year.
Although this policy shift was widely anticipated by
financial traders, the USD CAD plunged sharply and closed in a position to take
out the recent main bottom at .9952. Traders feel that the improving economy
and likelihood of additional rate hikes during the next few months should keep
upside pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
The U.S. Dollar finished mixed, posting gains versus the
Euro, Swiss, and Japanese Yen while struggling against the British Pound,
Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.
The EUR USD remained under pressure on concerns the recently
approved European Union rescue package will not be enough to stem the financial
slide in Greece.
Borrowing costs continue to plague Greece with the cost of debt eating
up much of its cash flow. The spread between Greek Bonds and German Bunds
remains wide indicating that investors believe an investment in Greece is a
high risk proposition. Some European Union members are already anticipating the
possibility of another bailout proposal.
The British Pound surged to the upside this morning following
the release of better than expected Consumer Price data and managed to hold on
to a portion of its gains despite numerous attempts to push it lower.
Todayâ€™s CPI figure sent a signal that the Bank of England is
likely going to pass on an increase in its quantitative easing program at its
next meeting in May. The increase in inflation came as a surprise to the
central bank as well as market participants because the BoE has been warning
about the possibility of deflation.
Gains were most likely being limited on Tuesday by election
concerns. Many traders feel this market is not likely to trend until after the
May 6th election. Furthermore, traders are still worried the election will
result in a hung parliament which will make it difficult to pass legislation to
curb the wide U.K.
Stronger demand for higher risk assets helped to drive the
USD JPY higher. Signs that the global economic recovery is back on track encouraged
investors to take on more risky assets like gold, crude oil and equities.
Tension over the Goldman Sachs fraud charges eased enough to draw investors
back into higher yielding assets.
The weaker Euro helped trigger a strong rally in the USD
CHF. Traders are anticipating more intervention by the Swiss National Bank in
an effort to protect the currency and the Swiss export market.
The AUD USD was up sharply on renewed talk of another
interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May.The RBAâ€™s minutes released early Tuesday
morning indicated that policymakers are concerned about inflation because of
increasing demand for Australian exports. Tuesdayâ€™s rally erased much of the
recent break that was triggered about a week ago when the government reported fewer
The NZD USD struggled throughout the day after an early
rally. The initial move to the upside today was triggered by the strong Aussie
Dollar. Traders are currently assessing the odds of an interest rate hike by
the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand. The first sign of a rally will be a
close over .7124. A strong acceleration to the upside is likely to occur
following a trade through .7199.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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