Wednesday April 21, 2010 - 03:44:10 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 21-Apr-2010 - 0342 GMT
The US Equities were up yesterday. The Dow (11117.06) was up 0.23% and the Nasdaq (2500.31) was up 0.81%. The Dow is just above the Resistance at 11100 and it needs to be seen whether it is able to break it strongly or not in the coming days.
The Asian equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (11068.77, up 1.54%) may trade in the range of 10800-11250 in the coming days before a break on the either side. The Shanghai (2988.51, up 0.30%) is trading below the longterm trendline Resistance (at 3000) on the weekly charts and may be bearsih on a weekly close below 3000. The Hang Seng (21567.06) is down 0.26%. In India, the Sensex (17460.58) was up 0.34% and the Nifty (5230.10) was up 0.51% yesterday. The Sensex has bounced back from its low of 17276.80, on Monday and may again go upto 18150-350 while above 17300 in the coming weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4987.10) is up 0.76%.
Crude (84.36) has bounced back and is now trading above 84. The stronger US equity market and the resumption of some European flights which has eased the concerns of the jet fuel demand supported the price rise. With the Support at the broad 82-80 region continuing to hold, there are good chances of a rise to 88-90 in the coming days/weeks. The US Crude inventory data is due today.
Gold (1142.20) is trading slightly higher above 1140. The broader picture continue to remain bullish with Support in the broad 1140-00 region. We might see some sideways move between 1120-60 for some time before further rise. To see the Gold graph click on the following link:
Some more dip has been seen in the Euro (1.3420) since yesterday even though Dollar-Yen (93.20) has recovered a good bit from the low near 91.60 seen day before yesterday. The Euro is trading lower ahead of Greece's negotiation meeting with the IMF and ECB. Expect Support a little lower near 1.3310.
The Aussie (0.9310) and Pound (1.5365) are looking relatively bullish and might be worth buying on dips. Dollar-Swiss (1.0690) is trading higher alongwith the dip in the Euro.
In Asia, the Korean Won has strengthened again to 1109 and the Sing Dollar too has gained to 1.3728 from a level near 1.3810 day before yesterday. Support seen at 1.3707 for USD-SGD. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower at 44.50 yesterday. A dip towards 44.40-30 could be seen today, but might attract some buying at those levels.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.31%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 4 bps and 1bps each to quote at 1.02% and 3.79% respectively.
Yesterday, the BOC left the rates unchanged at 0.25%. However, it dropped its "conditional pledge" to hold the interest rate at current levels, signalling a rate hike in its upcoming meets considering the faster than expected economic growth and inflation.
In India the RBI increased the CRR, Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25 bps points each to 6.0%, 5.25% and 3.75% respectively.
08:30 GMT UK BOE Minutes
...Expected 0-0-9 hold...Previous 0-0-9 hold
08:30 GMT UK Unemp
...Expected 7.8%...Previous 7.8%
Mar UK CPI Y/Y
...Actual 3.4%...Previous 3.0%
RBI Repo Rate
...Actual 5.25%...Previous 5.00%
RBI Reverse Repo Rate
...Actual 3.75%...Previous 3.50%
...Actual 6.0%...Previous 5.75%
13:00 GMT BoC Meeting
...Actual 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
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