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Wednesday April 21, 2010 - 09:53:12 GMT
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Forexpros - www.forexpros.com
Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 21,
Fundamental Analysis: BoC Monetary Policy
Canadian traders anticipate the publication of the reports
published by the Bank of Canada. The bank lists four such reports yearly, in
which it announces its projected views for the Canadian economy over the next
price behavior, the Euro continues to fluctuate, without being able to create
major meaningful moves. This behavior has forced us to re-draw the falling
channel which we presented yesterday, to include yesterdayâ€™s high. And although
there are a few pips outside the channel on both sides, this channel looks
solid, and it deserves our attention. As we can see on the attached chart (the
hourly chart), there is a descending channel with two bottoms on its lower trend
line. This channel is the guardian of the falling trend, and its top at 1.3471
provides the most important resistance. If the price stays under this level, and
continued to trade within the channel, more downside activity is to be expected.
But, if we break this resistance, the price will contradict our hypothesis of a
downtrend, and will start to rise and target 2 important resistance levels
1.3577 & 1.3675. On the medium term, the break of 1.3437 indicates a good
chance to fall, but this break still lacks consistency. In case we trade with
stability below 1.3437, the price will be expected to fall both on short &
â€˘ 1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long
â€˘ 1.3340: Apr 9th low.
â€˘ 1.3266: Mar 25th & 25th low, and the
last 9 months low as well.
â€˘ 1.3471: the top of the
falling channel on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.3577: short term 61.8%
â€˘ 1.3675: the horizontal resistance which stopped the price twice
and caused the current
After holding close to
91.66on Monday, the price started to rise from this Fibonacci support, and
continued all the way until it achieved the â€śsurpriseâ€ť and started trading above
the previously broken trend line. This very strong rise from the bottom which
came only 8 pips below Fibonacci at 91.66, indicates that the trend is up. But,
in order for the Dollar to maintain gains, it is preferred to keep trading above
93.21, and if this support is broken we will fall to the most important support
currently 92.48. This support in specific is the separating line between the
uptrend & downtrend. As we said, bouncing from Fibonacci level is an
evidence in favor of the uptrend, This should be followed by holding above this
support. On the other hand, if this level is broken, the price will 91.82. The
resistance is at the level which caught our attention during the past 2 weeks
93.61. IF broken, the rise which started at the Fibonacci bottom will be ready
to entertain spectators, targeting 94.24 & 95.05.
â€˘ 93.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
92.48: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 91.82: important intraday
â€˘ 93.61: an intraday resistance which
stopped the price several times.
â€˘ 94.24: Apr 7th high.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Wed 18 Oct /ul>
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.
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EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated
EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated
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