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Wednesday April 21, 2010 - 09:53:12 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 21/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 21,
Fundamental Analysis: BoC Monetary Policy
Canadian traders anticipate the publication of the reports
published by the Bank of Canada. The bank lists four such reports yearly, in
which it announces its projected views for the Canadian economy over the next
price behavior, the Euro continues to fluctuate, without being able to create
major meaningful moves. This behavior has forced us to re-draw the falling
channel which we presented yesterday, to include yesterdayâ€™s high. And although
there are a few pips outside the channel on both sides, this channel looks
solid, and it deserves our attention. As we can see on the attached chart (the
hourly chart), there is a descending channel with two bottoms on its lower trend
line. This channel is the guardian of the falling trend, and its top at 1.3471
provides the most important resistance. If the price stays under this level, and
continued to trade within the channel, more downside activity is to be expected.
But, if we break this resistance, the price will contradict our hypothesis of a
downtrend, and will start to rise and target 2 important resistance levels
1.3577 & 1.3675. On the medium term, the break of 1.3437 indicates a good
chance to fall, but this break still lacks consistency. In case we trade with
stability below 1.3437, the price will be expected to fall both on short &
â€˘ 1.3437: Fibonacci 61.8% for the long
â€˘ 1.3340: Apr 9th low.
â€˘ 1.3266: Mar 25th & 25th low, and the
last 9 months low as well.
â€˘ 1.3471: the top of the
falling channel on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.3577: short term 61.8%
â€˘ 1.3675: the horizontal resistance which stopped the price twice
and caused the current
After holding close to
91.66on Monday, the price started to rise from this Fibonacci support, and
continued all the way until it achieved the â€śsurpriseâ€ť and started trading above
the previously broken trend line. This very strong rise from the bottom which
came only 8 pips below Fibonacci at 91.66, indicates that the trend is up. But,
in order for the Dollar to maintain gains, it is preferred to keep trading above
93.21, and if this support is broken we will fall to the most important support
currently 92.48. This support in specific is the separating line between the
uptrend & downtrend. As we said, bouncing from Fibonacci level is an
evidence in favor of the uptrend, This should be followed by holding above this
support. On the other hand, if this level is broken, the price will 91.82. The
resistance is at the level which caught our attention during the past 2 weeks
93.61. IF broken, the rise which started at the Fibonacci bottom will be ready
to entertain spectators, targeting 94.24 & 95.05.
â€˘ 93.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for the micro term.
92.48: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 91.82: important intraday
â€˘ 93.61: an intraday resistance which
stopped the price several times.
â€˘ 94.24: Apr 7th high.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Disclaimer: Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
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- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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