European Market Update: UK economic data seems to favor Brown ahead off May 6th election
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
European Market Update: UK economic data seems to favor Brown ahead off May 6th election
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (JP) Feb Final Leading Index: 98.5 v 97.9 prior; Coincident Index: 100.5 v 100.7 prior - (SZ) Swiss Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7% prior - (SZ) Swiss Q1 Real Estate Index Family Homes : 375.8 v 374.2 prior - (TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves Benchmark Rate at 1.25%; as expected - (NV) Netherlands Apr Consumer Confidence: -15 v -12e - (UK) Mar Jobless Claims Change: -32.9K v -10.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e - (UK) Feb Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e - (UK) Feb ILO Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.8%e - (IC) Iceland Mar Wage Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.5 prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prior - (IC) Iceland Q1Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 6.7% prior
** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened positive on the back of a rollover in tech strength that continued from post-market earnings out of US listed Apple [APPL]. On the open, semiconductor and phone component names led the upward rotation. Infineon Technology [IFX.GE] and ARM Holdings [ARM.UK] were the largest beneficiaries of this movement which was supplemented by additional M&A rumors. From these opening level highs, markets have rotated slowly lower with the FTSE and CAC definitively entering negative territory past 4:30EST and the DAX holding just above unchanged level. Macro themes that have weighed equities included speculation that the IMF would be proposing two new global financial and banking sector taxes along with a pull back from yesterday's late session upward push. Miners and retail names supported the gradual pullback in equities, reflecting a further wind down from trade on Tuesday, and analyst's notes from Goldman and BoA/Merrill Lynch. Earnings figures after market and in the pre-market from Accor [AC.FR], Peugeot [UG.FR] and Heineken [HEIA.NV] were all initially greeted well, before pulling off their best levels. Mid-session earnings from Fiat [F.IT] disappointed on the net side, with shares pulling back sharply after yesterday's run up ahead of speculation of a unit spin off. Trading volumes have remained strong throughout the session with good turnover in financials and tech related plays. Into the NY morning, markets have shown some divergence with the FTSE and CAC continuing to rotate slowly lower, while the DAX has proven more resilient to the trend.
- Individual equities: Fiat [F.IT]: Reports Q1 Net loss â‚¬21M v gain â‚¬40Me, Rev â‚¬12.9B v â‚¬12.2Be; confirms FY10 targets. || BHP [BHP.AU]: Reports Q3 iron ore production 31.2M tons v record 32.5M tons q/q, +11% y/y. || Autonomy [AU.UK]: Reports Q1 $0.21 v $0.25e, Rev $194.2M v $193Me. || Elan [ELN.IR]: Reports Q1 $0.00 v -$0.04e, Rev $305.8M v $299Me. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬13.99B v â‚¬13Be (+27.5% y/y); Guides strong recurring operating income in H1. || Accor [AC.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬1.67B v â‚¬1.62Be, LFL +0.6%. || Heineken [HEIA.NV]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬2.94B v â‚¬3Be; Beer volume -8.0% y/y. ||
- Speakers: German Econ Min Bruederle commented that Germany's Q1 GDP growth was likely to be slightly negative. He noted that the potential treat of credit squeeze was easing *** France Fin Min Lagarde commented that France pledged a maximum of â‚¬6.3B in Greek aid from the â‚¬30B EU Summit package with the aid will carry 5% interest rate for a three year maturity. She noted that the 2010 budget deficit was revised upwards by â‚¬3B to â‚¬152B and she welcomed IMF proposal on bank tax ***BoJ Dep Gov Nishimura stated that the BoJ had no preconception regarding its policy options but that the current BOJ framework was best. He noted that the central bank needed to expand its toolkit. The BOJ was open to any policy decisions and would take appropriate actions when deemed necessary. He added that price declines have stopped accelerating but needed to address the main causes of deflation and avoid another shock to the Japanese economy*** Germany Spring Economic Outlook maintained its 2010 GDP growth view at 1.4% and saw 2011 growth at 1.6%. German Gov't Forecasts 2010 exports growth at 6.8% and at 7.2% in 2011. It saw 2010 CPI at 1.3% and at 1.4% in 2011. German 2010 domestic demand seen at 0.4% and at 0.8% in 2011 and forecasted 2010 and 2011 avg unemployment at 3.4M *** India Central Bank (RBI) Deputy Gov Gokarn commented that the central bank desired to bring system towards adequate liquidity conditions. He noted that it would continue to use cash reserve ratio (CRR) as monetary policy tool and transmission was not very effective if only rates are used *** IATA head stated that airlines were seen posting total loss of â‚¬1.7B due to Icelandic volcanic ash related travel shut downs *** BOE Agents stated that consumer spending softened compared to levels seen in late 2009. The agents noted that export recovery continued to support a gradual economic recovery. Employment intentions remain stable but fewer employers were planning increased headcountand saw significant spare capacity in economy
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The European peripheral situation continues to remain on the front burner with a Portuguese Bill action set for today. The spreads continued to hover near yesterday's elevated levels. Greece remained under pressure and amid doubts that the Greek public was supporting its austerity measures. Greek officials are to finally meet with euro zone, IMF and ECB officials to talk about measures and stipulations linked to possible aid activation. ***The GBP maintained a firm tone following the claimant data which showed a larger-than-expected decline in March by almost 33K. GBP/USD above the 1.54 level was while EUR/GBP approached the 0.8700 area. The BoE MPC minutes from the April showed an unanimous board in favor of a steady repo rate and keeping the asset purchase target at Â£200B. Commodity-related pairs maintained positive momentum as Tech sector earnings bolstered risk appetite. Energy sector firmer by around 1% following the draws seen in the API inventory data late on Tuesday.
***Notes/Observations: - UK economic data favoring Brown ahead off May 6th election? - Tech sector earnings providing tailwinds for risk appetite - IMF to support additional banking sector levy's, to advocate flat tax and tax on profit and compensations - Greece starts discussions with EU and IMF officials
***Looking Ahead*** - 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 16th: No est v -9.6% prior - 8:00 (GE) German Fin Min briefs lawmakers on policy - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Core Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Wholesale Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 3.0% prior - 9:00 (BE) Beligium Apr Consumer Confidence: no est v -13 prior - 10:00 (US) Fed Bernanke and Tsy Sec unveil the new $100 note - 10:30 (US) DOE weekly energy inventories: Crude: -500Ke; Gasoline: +500Ke; Distillate: +800Ke; Utilization: 86.0%e
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.