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Wednesday April 21, 2010 - 10:02:53 GMT
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European Market Update: UK economic data seems to favor Brown ahead off May 6th election

Wednesday, April 21, 2010 5:56:32 AM

 European Market Update: UK economic data seems to favor Brown ahead off May 6th election


- (JP) Feb Final Leading Index: 98.5 v 97.9 prior; Coincident Index: 100.5 v 100.7 prior
- (SZ) Swiss Mar M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.7% prior
- (SZ) Swiss Q1 Real Estate Index Family Homes : 375.8 v 374.2 prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves Benchmark Rate at 1.25%; as expected
- (NV) Netherlands Apr Consumer Confidence: -15 v -12e
- (UK) Mar Jobless Claims Change: -32.9K v -10.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e
- (UK) Feb Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 2.3% v 2.4%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.7% v 1.6%e
- (UK) Feb ILO Unemployment Rate: 8.0% v 7.8%e
- (IC) Iceland Mar Wage Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.5 prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6% prior
- (IC) Iceland Q1Unemployment Rate: 7.6% v 6.7% prior

- Equities: Equity markets in Europe opened positive on the back of a rollover in tech strength that continued from post-market earnings out of US listed Apple [A
PPL]. On the open, semiconductor and phone component names led the upward rotation. Infineon Technology [IFX.GE] and ARM Holdings [ARM.UK] were the largest beneficiaries of this movement which was supplemented by additional M&A rumors. From these opening level highs, markets have rotated slowly lower with the FTSE and CAC definitively entering negative territory past 4:30EST and the DAX holding just above unchanged level. Macro themes that have weighed equities included speculation that the IMF would be proposing two new global financial and banking sector taxes along with a pull back from yesterday's late session upward push. Miners and retail names supported the gradual pullback in equities, reflecting a further wind down from trade on Tuesday, and analyst's notes from Goldman and BoA/Merrill Lynch. Earnings figures after market and in the pre-market from Accor [AC.FR], Peugeot [UG.FR] and Heineken [HEIA.NV] were all initially greeted well, before pulling off their best levels. Mid-session earnings from Fiat [F.IT] disappointed on the net side, with shares pulling back sharply after yesterday's run up ahead of speculation of a unit spin off. Trading volumes have remained strong throughout the session with good turnover in financials and tech related plays. Into the NY morning, markets have shown some divergence with the FTSE and CAC continuing to rotate slowly lower, while the DAX has proven more resilient to the trend.

- Individual equities: Fiat [F.IT]: Reports Q1 Net loss €21M v gain €40Me, Rev €12.9B v €12.2Be; confirms FY10 targets. ||
BHP [BHP.AU]: Reports Q3 iron ore production 31.2M tons v record 32.5M tons q/q, +11% y/y. || Autonomy [AU.UK]: Reports Q1 $0.21 v $0.25e, Rev $194.2M v $193Me. || Elan [ELN.IR]: Reports Q1 $0.00 v -$0.04e, Rev $305.8M v $299Me. || Peugeot [UG.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €13.99B v €13Be (+27.5% y/y); Guides strong recurring operating income in H1. || Accor [AC.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev €1.67B v €1.62Be, LFL +0.6%. || Heineken [HEIA.NV]: Reports Q1 Rev €2.94B v €3Be; Beer volume -8.0% y/y. ||

- Speakers: German Econ Min Bruederle commented that
Germany's Q1 GDP growth was likely to be slightly negative. He noted that the potential treat of credit squeeze was easing *** France Fin Min Lagarde commented that France pledged a maximum of €6.3B in Greek aid from the €30B EU Summit package with the aid will carry 5% interest rate for a three year maturity. She noted that the 2010 budget deficit was revised upwards by €3B to €152B and she welcomed IMF proposal on bank tax ***BoJ Dep Gov Nishimura stated that the BoJ had no preconception regarding its policy options but that the current BOJ framework was best. He noted that the central bank needed to expand its toolkit. The BOJ was open to any policy decisions and would take appropriate actions when deemed necessary. He added that price declines have stopped accelerating but needed to address the main causes of deflation and avoid another shock to the Japanese economy*** Germany Spring Economic Outlook maintained its 2010 GDP growth view at 1.4% and saw 2011 growth at 1.6%. German Gov't Forecasts 2010 exports growth at 6.8% and at 7.2% in 2011. It saw 2010 CPI at 1.3% and at 1.4% in 2011. German 2010 domestic demand seen at 0.4% and at 0.8% in 2011 and forecasted 2010 and 2011 avg unemployment at 3.4M *** India Central Bank (RBI) Deputy Gov Gokarn commented that the central bank desired to bring system towards adequate liquidity conditions. He noted that it would continue to use cash reserve ratio (CRR) as monetary policy tool and transmission was not very effective if only rates are used *** IATA head stated that airlines were seen posting total loss of €1.7B due to Icelandic volcanic ash related travel shut downs *** BOE Agents stated that consumer spending softened compared to levels seen in late 2009. The agents noted that export recovery continued to support a gradual economic recovery. Employment intentions remain stable but fewer employers were planning increased headcountand saw significant spare capacity in economy

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The European peripheral situation continues to remain on the front burner with a Portuguese Bill action set for today. The spreads continued to hover near yesterday's elevated levels.
Greece remained under pressure and amid doubts that the Greek public was supporting its austerity measures. Greek officials are to finally meet with euro zone, IMF and ECB officials to talk about measures and stipulations linked to possible aid activation. ***The GBP maintained a firm tone following the claimant data which showed a larger-than-expected decline in March by almost 33K. GBP/USD above the 1.54 level was while EUR/GBP approached the 0.8700 area. The BoE MPC minutes from the April showed an unanimous board in favor of a steady repo rate and keeping the asset purchase target at £200B. Commodity-related pairs maintained positive momentum as Tech sector earnings bolstered risk appetite. Energy sector firmer by around 1% following the draws seen in the API inventory data late on Tuesday.

UK economic data favoring Brown ahead off May 6th election?
- Tech sector earnings providing tailwinds for risk appetite
- IMF to support additional banking sector levy's, to advocate flat tax and tax on profit and compensations
- Greece starts discussions with EU and IMF officials

***Looking Ahead***
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Apr 16th: No est v -9.6% prior
- 8:00 (GE) German Fin Min briefs lawmakers on policy
- 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Core Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Wholesale Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 3.0% prior
- 9:00 (BE) Beligium Apr Consumer Confidence: no est v -13 prior
- 10:00 (US) Fed Bernanke and Tsy Sec unveil the new $100 note
- 10:30 (US) DOE weekly energy inventories: Crude: -500Ke; Gasoline: +500Ke; Distillate: +800Ke; Utilization: 86.0%e



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