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Wednesday April 21, 2010 - 13:20:44 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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When Brazil joins the discussion, then it must be ...

Key News
  • Greece started talks with EU and International Monetary Fund officials on Wednesday to hammer out details of an economic plan that could offer the euro zone member 40-45 billion euros to exit a debt crisis. (Reuters)
  • The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit fell three times faster than expected in March, official data showed on Wednesday, but a broader measure of unemployment painted a less rosy picture. The pound rose by a fifth of a cent against the dollar after the figures, which reinforced hopes that first quarter GDP data on Friday will show Britain's recovery is gaining traction. (Reuters)
Quotable
“There are some distortions in world markets, one of them is a lack of growth and another is China.” —Henrique Meirelles

FX Trading – When Brazil joins the discussion, then it must be ...

Gradually put in place a managed floating exchange rate system.

Apparently that’s what Chinese President Hu Jintao said in a speech at a BRIC summit last week. Smooth, huh?

It almost sounds as if maybe China wants to loosen the reins on the yuan; but it’s more likely China wants to loosen the pressure of the international collection of hands wringing its neck to let the yuan appreciate.

Sure, we know the US has its hand on China’s neck, more or less. (President Barack Obama has set the goal of doubling US exports in the next five years. And that isn’t going to happen without a stronger yuan and “freer” trade.) And there have been plenty of other key countries who also believe the yuan needs to be revalued higher. But where does Brazil stand?

Brazil may have talked about the yuan before, and probably has, but today is the first time I noted such. Both Brazil’s Finance Minister and central bank chief think a stronger yuan is critical in maintaining a balanced global economy.

Why is Brazil’s view on the yuan worth discussing?  Brazil is a country seemingly more neutral on the geopolitical landscape.  If anything, they have been leaning toward China because of the trade dynamic between the two players.

So why is Brazil concerned? Haven’t things been going smoothly for them? I mean, Brazil’s not trying to “let the yuan’s exchange rate issue become the scapegoat” of their domestic economic problems, right?

Nope. Brazil’s seems pretty content and mostly stable when it comes to the make-up of their economy.

So then what is it?

Maybe the answer lies in Brazil’s exports to the United States. [Chart not available in text format.]

The total value of Brazil’s exports to the US currently stands at HALF the value it did before things came crashing down in 2008. Needless to say, the recovery in this figure has been small.

And maybe Brazil figures they can’t bet on much resurgence in this number, considering the state of finances in the fine States, private and public.

Sure, last year China overtook the US to become Brazil’s largest trading partner. And while that helped to keep Brazil’s economy stable during the world recession, it’s not currently enough to replace the drop in exports to the US.

Brazil Exports Index – Foreign Trade/Exports Total [Chart not available in text format.]

A stronger yuan would make Brazilian exports appear cheaper, more attractive. Even though Brazil’s exports only account for roughly 10.5% of GDP, Brazil understands the potential of future Chinese demand.

From a long-term perspective, Brazil seems to want two things: a go-to customer for its exports and a stable business partner. A stronger yuan goes to solidifying that long-term goal.

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com

Currencies are another asset class …

David Newman here ... on Investing versus Trading

How many times have you seen pictures of people sitting on the beach with their laptop in hand in those “Trade Forex Commission Free” advertisements? Open a FX account, quit your real job, sit on the beach and get rich is the implicit message. It’s ridiculous! But unfortunately that is what sells.

It doesn’t have to be that way. You don’t have to buy into the hype…and you don’t have to take that much risk in order to get involved in currencies. Trading can be profitable; but it requires extreme focus and discipline. There is another way if you want to “invest” in currencies.

Investing in currencies for the long haul means using currencies as another asset class in your portfolio. An asset class that will stand along stocks and bonds and hopefully provide some much needed diversification.

There are plenty of low leveraged long-term investment choices available to you so you can make real money in currencies. They are called Currency Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

An ETF is a simple straightforward currency product that you can buy and sell in your standard equity brokerage account. It’s the same as buying any other fund traded on the exchange. We offer recommendations on Currency ETFs in our month Currency Investor newsletter. We don’t recommend trading them; we do recommend investing in them using a long-term buy and hold strategy.

To sum it up: Our monthly Currency Investor newsletter is geared toward newcomers and experienced investors who are looking for a conservative approach to the foreign exchange market, and learning more about how the global economy works.

In plain language we deliver global macroeconomic analysis and actionable ideas geared toward exchange rate fluctuations.

Our analysis is comprehensible and our recommendations consist of ETFs, as I said, so don’t get turned off by buzz words like “exchange rates” or “foreign exchange” – this investing strategy is as easy to implement as buying and selling stocks.

Plus, at $39 per year it’s a deal you’d be hard-pressed to find anywhere else.

Thorough global analysis plus complete investment guidance ... and all for only $39 per year? You can become a Member of our Currency Investor service at our home page via credit card or PayPal.

Thank you.

All the best,

David Newman
Director of Sales and Marketing
Black Swan Capital
dnewman@blackswantrading.com
Phone: 866-846-2672

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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