Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 April 2010)
The euro depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3355
level and was capped around the $1.3445 level. The
common currency is still suffering from Greek-related problems.European Central Bank member Weber indicated
this week that Greece‚Äôs financing needs could exceed ‚ā¨100 billion, far above
early estimates.There is market talk
that Greece‚Äôs financial assistance needs will also be significant in 2011 and 2012
and will require eurozone partners and the International Monetary Fund to
contribute a much larger amount of cash than originally anticipated.German Chancellor Merkel is said to be the
major decision-major in the multilateral Greek assistance program, and there is
also talk that Greece may require assistance much earlier than previously
believed on account of its inability to refinance a lot of debt in the capital
markets.The common currency may likely
continue to weaken as long as there is an appreciable amount of uncertainty
regarding Greece‚Äôs cash needs.The IMF
today warned there could be a ‚Äúcontagion‚ÄĚ effect in the eurozone on account of
Greece‚Äôs fiscal crisis.The IMF also
reduced its German 2010 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.5% and the IMF
called on the ECB to keep interest rates ‚Äúexceptionally low.‚ÄĚPMI data will be released throughout the
eurozone over the next couple of days.In U.S. news, data released today saw
MBA mortgage applications improve 13.6% in the latest week.There is talk that Congressional Republicans
and the Obama administration may be narrowing their differences regarding
financial and regulatory reform.Some
key Democratic Senators are calling for the Fed to lose its supervisory status
over small banks.Euro bids are
cited around the US$ 1.3175 level.
The yen appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the
greenback tested bids around the ¬•92.95 level and was capped around
the ¬•93.40 level. Bank of Japan Deputy
Governor Nishimura reported ‚ÄúSome beams of light are starting to break through
a thick cloud of deflation.The effects
of the pickup in the economy since the spring of 2009 can be considered to
spread over to prices only from now on.‚ÄĚ There is increasing speculation the BoJ will
raise its outlook for the economy and prices next week amid positive improvements
in certain economic measures including the export sector, the unemployment
rate, and consumer confidence. Nishimura added the possibility of a double dip
recession has diminished.The Democratic
Party of Japan reported it will likely call for an inflation target for the central
bank in this year‚Äôs election platform.It is likely legislators will try and prompt the central bank to seek inflation
of up to two per cent.The International Monetary Fund today called
on Japan to enact a ‚Äúcredible‚ÄĚ medium-term fiscal plan.Data released in Japan overnight saw the
February leading index improve to 98.5 while the February coincident index
ticked lower to 100.5.Also, the March
merchandise trade balance total expanded to ¬•1.020 trillion.The Nikkei 225 stock index climbed 1.74% to
close at ¬•11,090.05.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the ¬•96.85
level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen as the single currency
tested bids around the ¬•124.25 level and was capped around the ¬•125.50 level.The
British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the yen as sterling tested offers
around the ¬•144.15 level while the Swiss
franc moved lower vis-√†-vis the yen and tested bids around the ¬•86.70 level.
In Chinese news, the U.S. dollar appreciated
vis-√†-vis the Chinese yuan as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8275 in the
over-the-counter market, up from CNY 6.8254. Reserve Bank of India‚Äôs Subbarao and Central
Bank of Brazil‚Äôs Meirelles called on China to let the yuan appreciate.Many China-watchers believe China may allow
the yuan to appreciate at any time between now and the end of the quarter.
pound appreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around
the US$ 1.5440 level and was supported around the $1.5330 level. Minutes from Bank of England Monetary Policy
Committee‚Äôs April meeting were released today and they revealed a unanimous
vote to keep interest rates unchanged and the central bank‚Äôs asset purchase
plan unchanged at ¬£200 billion.The
central bank did adopt a more hawkish view on inflation, however, noting there
are ‚Äúsome upside risks to inflation.‚ÄĚData released in the U.K. today saw March jobless claims decline by
32,900 with the claimant count rate at 4.8%.In contrast, the ILO unemployment measure rose to 8% in the three months
to February.Traders are talking about a
surge in the polls by the Liberal Democratic Party and the likely impact this
will have on the 6 May General Election..Many political pundits believe the contest will result in a hung
Parliament and some now say the general election is too close to call with
Cameron perhaps still holding a slight lead over Brown.Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.5140
level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the British pound as the single currency
tested bids around the ¬£0.8685 level and was capped around the ¬£0.8750 level.
franc depreciated vis-√†-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers
around the CHF 1.0725 level and was supported around the CHF 1.0660 level. Dealers cited talk that Swiss National Bank
bids were seen on the euro/ Swiss franc cross around CHF 1.4330 during the
Australasian session.Data released in
Switzerland today saw March M3 money supply growth decelerate to 5.9%.U.S. dollar offers are cited around the CHF
1.0920 level.The euro moved lower vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc as the single
currency tested bids around the CHF 1.4325 level while the British pound moved higher vis-√†-vis the Swiss franc and tested
offers around the CHF 1.6495 level.
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