Selling pressure continued to drive the Euro down on
Wednesday. The outlook for the Euro remains bearish despite on-going meetings
between Greek officials and the IMF to find a solution to the growing sovereign
The EUR USD was down all day in the New York trading session after trading lower
overnight. Another indication of lower prices to come was the widening of the Greek
10-year Bond/German Bund Spread to 500 basis points. Investors are continuing to
ask for protection from a potential collapse in the Greek debt market.
Traders are becoming convinced that there is not enough
money available to help out Greece
in the long-run. Hedge funds continue to short the Euro in anticipation of more
borrowing by Greece
and despite another proposal from the EU/IMF to provide additional emergency
funds if necessary.
Throughout the day, talk was circulating that Portugal is close to a similar dilemma as Greece. Portugalâ€™s
bonds are also selling off, indicating investor lack of confidence in this
countryâ€™s ability to contain its debt.
All of this is adding up to more pressure on the Euro.
The GBP USD closed higher after holding steady most of the
day. Government data released early Wednesday morning showed the number of
people claiming jobless benefits fell by 32,900 in March. This was three times
more than pre-report estimates and the sharpest drop since June 1997.
Overnight the Bank of England minutes were released. The data
revealed that the BoE members voted 9-0 to keep interest rates at historically
low levels, but that inflation was a concern. On Tuesday a report was released
showing U.K. CPI had risen to 3.4%. This percentage was almost twice the target
of 2.0%.After providing stimulus for
months in an effort to revive the economy, the BoE will now have to figure out
how to begin removing the stimulus to lower inflation without upsetting the
The upcoming May 6th election remains a concern for U.K. investors
at this time which is helping to limit gains. Traders maintain that the
election is too close to call and that there is still a strong possibility of a
hung parliament. This could mean that without a majority in the parliament, a
plan to slash the U.K.
budget deficit may not be able to be implemented.
The weaker Euro helped boost the USD CHF. Technically, this
market is poised to breakout to the upside. Traders are selling the Swiss Franc
in anticipation of further intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
The weakening U.S. equity markets helped to push
the USD JPY higher. Early in the trading session, this currency pair was having
trouble with a 50% price level at 93.18. Wednesdayâ€™s weakness in the stock
market drove the Yen through this level as well as a downtrending Gann angle
that has held the market down since the 94.77 top on April 5th. Upside momentum
could take this market to 93.55.
The USD CAD was under pressure early in the session following
Tuesdayâ€™s bearish announcement by the Bank of Canada that it is going to begin
hiking interest rates sooner than expected. The Canadian Dollar rose to a new
22-month high overnight but weakness in the U.S. equity markets and oversold
conditions are helping to push this pair near the positive side of the ledger.
Traders feel this currency will continue to rise as long as
keeps interest rates low and because of the improving Canadian economy. The BoC
wants to act as early as June 1st in order to stem the harmful effects of
inflation. Aside from a few short-covering rallies triggered by the dumping of
higher risk assets, look for traders to continue to press the Dollar/CAD lower.
Short USD CAD traders should be careful because of
Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom. This type of pattern can lead to a 2
to 3 day counter-trend rally.
Weaker stock prices, a sign of lower demand for risky
assets, put downside pressure on the Australian Dollar. Overnight the Aussie
Dollar tried to breakout to the upside but buying power dried up.
Traders are getting mixed signals. Bearish traders believe
that a weak mortgage demand report from earlier in the month indicates the
Reserve Bank of Australia
is unlikely to hike rates in May. Tuesdayâ€™s RBA minutes indicates that
policymakers are concerned about inflation and may consider a rate hike. The
inability to reach a solid conclusion was a contributing factor to Wednesdayâ€™s
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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