European Market Update: EuroStat revises Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio higher to 13.6%; peripheral spread continue to widen
Thursday, April 22, 2010
European Market Update: EuroStat revises Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio higher to 13.6%; peripheral spread continue to widen
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (JP) Japan Mar Supermarket sales Y/Y: -6.6% v -2.4% prior - (SZ) Swiss Mar Trade balance (CHF): 2.01B v 1.29B prior; Real Exports Y/Y: 1.4% v -1.4% prior' Real Imports Y/Y: -2.2%v 4.4% prior - (FR) France Apr Business Confidence: 97 v 95e; Production Outlook: +8 v -5e ; Own-Company Outlook: 4 v 5 prior - (FR) France Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 57.8 v 54.2e (highest since Dec); PMI Manufacturing: 56.7 v 56.7e (highest since Jun 2006) - (NV) Netherland Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8%e - (DE) Denmark Apr Consumer Confidence: 4.2% v 1.0%e - (GE) Germany Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 55.0 v 55.2e (; PMI Manufacturing: 61.3v 60.1e (highest reading since survey began in 1996) - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex reserves w/e Apr 16th: $456.3B v $448.6B prior - (TT) Taiwan Mar Unemployment Rate: % v 5.6%e - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 55.5 v 54.4e; PMI Manufacturing: 57.5 v 56.7e; PMI Composite: 57.3v 55.9e - (PH) Philippines Central Bank maintains the Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%; as expected - (HK) Hong Kong Mar CPI Composite Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e - (UK) Mar Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e - (UK) Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e - (UK) Mar Public Finances (PSNCR): Â£25.8B v Â£31.3Be; Net Borrowing: Â£23.5B v Â£24.0Be - (UK) Mar Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.9% prior - (UK) Mar Major Banks Mortgage Approvals: 52K v 50Ke - (EU) Euro-Zone 2009 Gov't Debt/GDP ratio: 78.5%e v 69.3% prior - (SZ) Swiss Apr Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 53.4 v 53.8 prior - (IS) Israel Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.6% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets have had a choppy session which has absorbed a markedly higher intake of corporate and macro news flows. Markets opened offered, in line with lower rotations in Asia. Earnings in the aftermarket NY session set a lower tone with negative themes in the tech and auto sector weighing on East Asian markets. Equities in Europe shook off the lower open, being driven higher by basic resource names and strength in the food/consumer discretionary sector. Solid earnings from market giant Nestle [NESN.SZ] pushed the higher momentum in food names as the group reiterated its 2010 goals and showed growth across all operating units in Q1 2010. Additional earnings from Swiss names were less supportive, as Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] and ABB [ABBN.SZ] failed to provide the blockbusters that analysts were looking for. Earnings releases have come fast and furious, names reporting have included Schneider Electric [SU.FR], Sodexho [SO.FR], Publicis [PUB.FR] and numerous other medium and small cap names. The theme from the most recent earnings flow has been decidedly mixed. Markets continued to push higher through 5:00EST, supported by strong preliminary April PMI reads. This momentum, and rotation, came to halt into 5:00EST as Eurostat released revised final 2009 EU state deficit to GDP ratios. In the new figures, both Ireland, and most notably Greece had their deficit numbers revised higher. This action kicked off an immediate flight to risk aversion with equities selling hard. On the back of this flow, market turnover volumes have been elevated throughout the session, highlighted by the CAC40.
- Individual equities:Nestle [NESN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev CHF26.3B v CHF25Be, Confirms 2010 targets. || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Net profit CHF2.1B v CHF2.0Be, Rev CHF9B v CHF9.4Be. || ABB [ABBN.SZ]: Reports Q1 EBIT $709M v $817Me (10.2% of sales v 12% prior), Rev $6.9B v $6.9Be. || Anglo American [AAL.UK]: Interim management statement: Reports Q1 IronOre production +23% y/y at 12.3M tons. || Arriva [ARI.UK]: Deutsche Bahn AG - Confirms Offer for Arriva plc at 775p/share in cash (transaction value Â£1.585B). || Publicis [PUB.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬1.16B v â‚¬1.1Be; Reiterates expectation to outperform market in 2010. || Sodexho [SW.FR]: Reports H1 Net â‚¬227M v â‚¬204Me, Rev â‚¬7.5B v â‚¬7.5Be. || VW [VOW3.GE]: Seeking authorization for â‚¬4.4B convertible bond offering through 2012; have no concrete plans for offering at this time. ||
- Speakers: Eurostat revised the EU peripheral state deficit to GDP ratios for 2009. The EU revise now sees Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio to 13.6% from 12.7% prior estimate with the country's Gross debt 115.1% of GDP versus 113.4% estimate. Eurostat added that it had reservations about quality of Greek budget data. EU put Portugal 2009 deficit to GDP ratio at 9.4% and revised Ireland 2009 deficit to GDP ratio to 14.3% from 11.8%. ***Fitch commented that Japan's Sovereign Creditworthiness was at risk from rising government debt. Fitch noted that the Japanese government was one of the most indebted in the world. In the absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation, government debt would continue to rise, placing downwards pressure on sovereign credit and ratings over the medium term*** Greece Fin Minister reiterated pledge to cut 2010 deficit to GDP ratio by 4%***China Industry Minister reiterated the government view that it remained concerned over sustainability of global economic recovery . the official added that the Yuan currency pressure from developed countries clouded its export picture *** Iran OPEC gov stated that he saw 2010 global oil demand rising by 1.5M barrels per day ***German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that he did not believe Greece would activate the emergency aid package by the middle of May *** China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) raises China 2010 GDP to 9.9% from 9.0% prior; CPI seen at 3.5% ***Philippines Asst Gov Amador commented that the central bank might raise interest rates at the next meeting. He noted that it might not raise reserve requirement with any possible adjustment in that tool depending on capital flows *** Ministry of Industry and Information (MIIT) commented that China's industrial output largely policy driven and still saw a risk of global double-dip recession ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The price action was listless for the most part of the morning until the EuroStat revised the deficit to GDP data for peripheral states. The peripheral situation reignited the risk aversion sentiment. The Greek deficit amounted to 13.6% of GDP last year compared to the 12.7% projected by the Greek Gov't (and up from 7.7% in the previous year). The Greek 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) climbed all-time record high near 520 bps, which was up 35bps from yesterday. The Portuguese CDS was also at a record level near 250bps. The spread between the Greek/German 10-year bond remained elevated from the session's getgo above the 500bps area and preceded to touch fresh record levels on the EU deficit report. The EUR/USD probed the 1.3420 early in the session on strong PMI data but regresses towards the alleged option barrier at 1.3350 as the peripherals concerns chipped aways any any positive momentum. ***The JPY reversed its earlier course and came under pressure in the mid-European morning after Fitch commented that Japan's Sovereign Creditworthiness was at risk from rising government debt.
- Geo-Political: Reportedly a terrorist attack south of the Iraqi city of Mosul has knocked out the Kirkuk-Ceyhan (Iraq-Turkey) pipeline. Initial damage assessment claims have put a down time on the system of at least three days. The 600 mile pipeline has a peak capacity of 0.6M bpd and is the primary export vehicle for oil from northern Iraq/Kurdistan. As a large and visible economic engine, the pipeline has been the target of repeated attacks since 2003, most recently in Oct 2009. ***Eurocontrol has confirmed that all commercial airspace over Europe (ex pockets near Sweden/Norway) has reopened. All flights are now capable of operating on normal flight schedules for the first time in 8-days. Traffic volumes yesterday ramped up to 80% normal levels with full figures seen for today. Airlines are expected to struggle with backlogs well into next week.
***Notes/Observations: - European peripheral remains the key sentiment. Early risk appetite succumbs to aversion after EU deficit to GDP comments for Greece, Portugal and Spain - Strong Euro Zone PMI data - Germany not expecting Greece to activate the aid package before mid-May
***Looking Ahead** - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Core Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior - 8:30 (US) Mar Producer prices M/M: 0.5%e v -0.6% prior; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 484K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.600Me v 4.639K prior - 9:00 (US) Feb RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No est v -0.51% prior - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Current Account: -$4.1Be v -$3.3B prior; Foreign Investment: $1.7Be v $2.9B prior - 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Apr Advanced Consumer Confidence: -17e v -17 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Retail Sales: 1.5%e v -1.8% prior - 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 5.28Me v 5.02M prior - 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report and press conference - US Commercial Paper Outstanding data - 11:25 (EU) EU's VanRompuy - 12:15 (EU) EU's Barroso - 12:15 (JP) BOJ's Shirakawa speaks at Economic Club in NY - 12:30 (US) US Tsy Wolin address at swap & derivative conference - 12:30 (US) US Tsy Allison testifies to House panel on TARP - 19:00 (US) G20 meets in Washington DC
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