European Market Update: EuroStat revises Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio higher to 13.6%; peripheral spread continue to widen
Thursday, April 22, 2010
European Market Update: EuroStat revises Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio higher to 13.6%; peripheral spread continue to widen
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (JP) Japan Mar Supermarket sales Y/Y: -6.6% v -2.4% prior - (SZ) Swiss Mar Trade balance (CHF): 2.01B v 1.29B prior; Real Exports Y/Y: 1.4% v -1.4% prior' Real Imports Y/Y: -2.2%v 4.4% prior - (FR) France Apr Business Confidence: 97 v 95e; Production Outlook: +8 v -5e ; Own-Company Outlook: 4 v 5 prior - (FR) France Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 57.8 v 54.2e (highest since Dec); PMI Manufacturing: 56.7 v 56.7e (highest since Jun 2006) - (NV) Netherland Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.8% v 5.8%e - (DE) Denmark Apr Consumer Confidence: 4.2% v 1.0%e - (GE) Germany Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 55.0 v 55.2e (; PMI Manufacturing: 61.3v 60.1e (highest reading since survey began in 1996) - (RU) Russia Gold & Forex reserves w/e Apr 16th: $456.3B v $448.6B prior - (TT) Taiwan Mar Unemployment Rate: % v 5.6%e - (EU) Euro Zone Apr Preliminary PMI Services: 55.5 v 54.4e; PMI Manufacturing: 57.5 v 56.7e; PMI Composite: 57.3v 55.9e - (PH) Philippines Central Bank maintains the Overnight Borrowing Rate at 4.00%; as expected - (HK) Hong Kong Mar CPI Composite Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e - (UK) Mar Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.3%e - (UK) Mar Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M: 0.2% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.0%e - (UK) Mar Public Finances (PSNCR): Â£25.8B v Â£31.3Be; Net Borrowing: Â£23.5B v Â£24.0Be - (UK) Mar Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: 0.1% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.9% prior - (UK) Mar Major Banks Mortgage Approvals: 52K v 50Ke - (EU) Euro-Zone 2009 Gov't Debt/GDP ratio: 78.5%e v 69.3% prior - (SZ) Swiss Apr Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: 53.4 v 53.8 prior - (IS) Israel Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.3% v 7.6% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: European equity markets have had a choppy session which has absorbed a markedly higher intake of corporate and macro news flows. Markets opened offered, in line with lower rotations in Asia. Earnings in the aftermarket NY session set a lower tone with negative themes in the tech and auto sector weighing on East Asian markets. Equities in Europe shook off the lower open, being driven higher by basic resource names and strength in the food/consumer discretionary sector. Solid earnings from market giant Nestle [NESN.SZ] pushed the higher momentum in food names as the group reiterated its 2010 goals and showed growth across all operating units in Q1 2010. Additional earnings from Swiss names were less supportive, as Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] and ABB [ABBN.SZ] failed to provide the blockbusters that analysts were looking for. Earnings releases have come fast and furious, names reporting have included Schneider Electric [SU.FR], Sodexho [SO.FR], Publicis [PUB.FR] and numerous other medium and small cap names. The theme from the most recent earnings flow has been decidedly mixed. Markets continued to push higher through 5:00EST, supported by strong preliminary April PMI reads. This momentum, and rotation, came to halt into 5:00EST as Eurostat released revised final 2009 EU state deficit to GDP ratios. In the new figures, both Ireland, and most notably Greece had their deficit numbers revised higher. This action kicked off an immediate flight to risk aversion with equities selling hard. On the back of this flow, market turnover volumes have been elevated throughout the session, highlighted by the CAC40.
- Individual equities:Nestle [NESN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Rev CHF26.3B v CHF25Be, Confirms 2010 targets. || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ]: Reports Q1 Net profit CHF2.1B v CHF2.0Be, Rev CHF9B v CHF9.4Be. || ABB [ABBN.SZ]: Reports Q1 EBIT $709M v $817Me (10.2% of sales v 12% prior), Rev $6.9B v $6.9Be. || Anglo American [AAL.UK]: Interim management statement: Reports Q1 IronOre production +23% y/y at 12.3M tons. || Arriva [ARI.UK]: Deutsche Bahn AG - Confirms Offer for Arriva plc at 775p/share in cash (transaction value Â£1.585B). || Publicis [PUB.FR]: Reports Q1 Rev â‚¬1.16B v â‚¬1.1Be; Reiterates expectation to outperform market in 2010. || Sodexho [SW.FR]: Reports H1 Net â‚¬227M v â‚¬204Me, Rev â‚¬7.5B v â‚¬7.5Be. || VW [VOW3.GE]: Seeking authorization for â‚¬4.4B convertible bond offering through 2012; have no concrete plans for offering at this time. ||
- Speakers: Eurostat revised the EU peripheral state deficit to GDP ratios for 2009. The EU revise now sees Greece 2009 deficit to GDP ratio to 13.6% from 12.7% prior estimate with the country's Gross debt 115.1% of GDP versus 113.4% estimate. Eurostat added that it had reservations about quality of Greek budget data. EU put Portugal 2009 deficit to GDP ratio at 9.4% and revised Ireland 2009 deficit to GDP ratio to 14.3% from 11.8%. ***Fitch commented that Japan's Sovereign Creditworthiness was at risk from rising government debt. Fitch noted that the Japanese government was one of the most indebted in the world. In the absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation, government debt would continue to rise, placing downwards pressure on sovereign credit and ratings over the medium term*** Greece Fin Minister reiterated pledge to cut 2010 deficit to GDP ratio by 4%***China Industry Minister reiterated the government view that it remained concerned over sustainability of global economic recovery . the official added that the Yuan currency pressure from developed countries clouded its export picture *** Iran OPEC gov stated that he saw 2010 global oil demand rising by 1.5M barrels per day ***German Fin Min Schaeuble commented that he did not believe Greece would activate the emergency aid package by the middle of May *** China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) raises China 2010 GDP to 9.9% from 9.0% prior; CPI seen at 3.5% ***Philippines Asst Gov Amador commented that the central bank might raise interest rates at the next meeting. He noted that it might not raise reserve requirement with any possible adjustment in that tool depending on capital flows *** Ministry of Industry and Information (MIIT) commented that China's industrial output largely policy driven and still saw a risk of global double-dip recession ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The price action was listless for the most part of the morning until the EuroStat revised the deficit to GDP data for peripheral states. The peripheral situation reignited the risk aversion sentiment. The Greek deficit amounted to 13.6% of GDP last year compared to the 12.7% projected by the Greek Gov't (and up from 7.7% in the previous year). The Greek 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) climbed all-time record high near 520 bps, which was up 35bps from yesterday. The Portuguese CDS was also at a record level near 250bps. The spread between the Greek/German 10-year bond remained elevated from the session's getgo above the 500bps area and preceded to touch fresh record levels on the EU deficit report. The EUR/USD probed the 1.3420 early in the session on strong PMI data but regresses towards the alleged option barrier at 1.3350 as the peripherals concerns chipped aways any any positive momentum. ***The JPY reversed its earlier course and came under pressure in the mid-European morning after Fitch commented that Japan's Sovereign Creditworthiness was at risk from rising government debt.
- Geo-Political: Reportedly a terrorist attack south of the Iraqi city of Mosul has knocked out the Kirkuk-Ceyhan (Iraq-Turkey) pipeline. Initial damage assessment claims have put a down time on the system of at least three days. The 600 mile pipeline has a peak capacity of 0.6M bpd and is the primary export vehicle for oil from northern Iraq/Kurdistan. As a large and visible economic engine, the pipeline has been the target of repeated attacks since 2003, most recently in Oct 2009. ***Eurocontrol has confirmed that all commercial airspace over Europe (ex pockets near Sweden/Norway) has reopened. All flights are now capable of operating on normal flight schedules for the first time in 8-days. Traffic volumes yesterday ramped up to 80% normal levels with full figures seen for today. Airlines are expected to struggle with backlogs well into next week.
***Notes/Observations: - European peripheral remains the key sentiment. Early risk appetite succumbs to aversion after EU deficit to GDP comments for Greece, Portugal and Spain - Strong Euro Zone PMI data - Germany not expecting Greece to activate the aid package before mid-May
***Looking Ahead** - 8:00 (PD) Poland Mar Core Inflation M/M: 0.3%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 2.2% prior - 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Leading Indicators M/M: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior - 8:30 (US) Mar Producer prices M/M: 0.5%e v -0.6% prior; PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 450Ke v 484K prior; Continuing Claims: 4.600Me v 4.639K prior - 9:00 (US) Feb RPX Composite 28-day Y/Y: No est v -0.51% prior - 9:30 (BR) Brazil Mar Current Account: -$4.1Be v -$3.3B prior; Foreign Investment: $1.7Be v $2.9B prior - 10:00 (EU) Euro Zone Apr Advanced Consumer Confidence: -17e v -17 prior - 10:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Retail Sales: 1.5%e v -1.8% prior - 10:00 (US) Mar Existing Home Sales: 5.28Me v 5.02M prior - 10:30 (CA) Bank of Canada Monetary Policy report and press conference - US Commercial Paper Outstanding data - 11:25 (EU) EU's VanRompuy - 12:15 (EU) EU's Barroso - 12:15 (JP) BOJ's Shirakawa speaks at Economic Club in NY - 12:30 (US) US Tsy Wolin address at swap & derivative conference - 12:30 (US) US Tsy Allison testifies to House panel on TARP - 19:00 (US) G20 meets in Washington DC
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.