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Thursday April 22, 2010 - 10:22:34 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 22/04/2010ForexPros Daily Analysis April 22,
Fundamental Analysis: Core Durable Goods
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Core Durable
Goods Orders. It measures the change in the total value of new orders for
durable goods, excluding transportation.
Because aircraft orders are very
volatile, the core number gives a better gauge of orders trends.
reading indicates activity increase by manufacturers.
A higher than expected
reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than
expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD. Analysts
predict a reading of 0.70%.
The Euro broke yesterdayâ€™s support 1.3437, and dropped approaching the
suggested target 1.3340 and reaching a new bottom at 1.3357. What happened did
not move our focus away from the descending channel we presented yesterday. And
although there are a few pips outside the channel on both sides, this channel
looks solid, and it deserves our attention. As we can see on the attached chart
(the hourly chart), there is a descending channel with two bottoms on its lower
trend line. This channel is the guardian of the falling trend, and its top at
1.3427 provides the most important resistance. If the price stays under this
level, and continued to trade within the channel, more downside activity is to
be expected. But, if we break this resistance, the price will contradict our
hypothesis of a downtrend, and will start to rise and target 1.3546 & the
important 1.3675. As for the support it is just above yesterdayâ€™s low, at 1.3369
to be specific, and if broken we see 1.3113 as a first and modest target for
such a break, on the way lower.
â€˘ 1.3369: important
â€˘ 1.3266: Mar 25th & 25th low, and the last 9 months
low as well.
â€˘ 1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3427: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart.
â€˘ 1.3546: short
term 50% Fibonacci.
â€˘ 1.3675: the horizontal resistance which stopped the
price twice and caused the current
After holding close to
91.66 on Monday, the price started to rise from this Fibonacci support, and
continued all the way until it achieved the â€śsurpriseâ€ť and started trading above
the previously broken trend line. This very strong rise from the bottom which
came only 8 pips below Fibonacci at 91.66, indicates that the trend is up. But,
the return of the price to trade below this line once again today, is really
puzzling. Thus we have no choice but to focus on short term levels without any
prior bias. Short term support is at 92.72, and if broken we will test last
Fridayâ€™s low 91.89, and then the previous important resistance 90.78. While the
resistance is still where it was in the past few days at 93.61, and we do not
recommend cheering for the Dollar before breaking it. If we do, we will target
94.24 first & then 95.05
â€˘ 92.72: Asian session
â€˘ 91.89: Fridayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 90.78: previous resistance on hourly
â€˘ 93.61: an intraday resistance which
stopped the price several times.
â€˘ 94.24: Apr 7th high.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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