Overnight Fitch Ratings issued a statement which could weigh
on the Japanese Yen over the near-term. In commenting on the level of Japanese
debt, Fitch said the Japanese government â€śis one of the most indebted in the
world.â€ť It further added â€śIn absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal
consolidation, government debt will continue to rise, placing downwards
pressure on sovereign credit and ratings over the medium term.â€ť
The initial reaction by traders drove the USD JPY to 93.34,
but weakening demand for higher yielding assets helped the Japanese Yen recover
as investors sought safety in lower yielding assets. Traders are going to have
to decide whether to let the Fitch story dictate market direction or the stock
Technically, the USD JPY is finding resistance at a
retracement zone at 93.18 to 93.55. Additional resistance is at a downtrending
Gann angle at 93.14. A failure to penetrate the 93.14 - 93.18 resistance
cluster could pressure the Dollar/Yen.
Downside pressure continues to push the EUR USD lower but
the overnight loss has been limited by an uptrending Gann angle at 1.3332. A
break through this level could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the
recent bottom at 1.3282 the most likely target.
Worries continue to mount about Greeceâ€™s budget deficit. The spread
between Greece Bonds and German Bunds continues to indicate that there is risk
of default. Yesterday this spread traded over 500 basis points. The
The Dollar rose against the Euro on Wednesday despite the
start of talks to activate the loan agreement between Greece and the
International Monetary Fund. Short-traders believe there is not enough money in
this agreement to help Greece
over the long-run. The sell-off in the Portugal
bond market is a strong indication that traders believe this country faces the
same dilemma as Greece.
After a healthy two-day rally, the GBP USD is under pressure
this morning following the release of a worse than expected U.K. retail
sales report. March retail sales showed an increase of 0.4%. The increase was
less than economist estimates of 0.6%. Traders reacted by selling the British
Pound as the report indicated the possibility of slower growth in the economy.
Earlier in the week, the British Pound rose after the
government reported higher than expected consumer inflation. This news
triggered a rally in the Sterling,
but gains were limited on election concerns. Recent polls are showing the May
6th election may result in no party have a significant majority. This could
lead to a hung parliament meaning legislation to cut the U.K. deficit
may be limited.
Yesterday the USD CAD hit a new 22-month low but there was
very little follow-through to the downside. This is usually an indication of an
oversold market. Technically, the closing price reversal bottom indicates an
impending short-covering rally which could send this pair up to 1.0072 to
1.0106. Lower demand for gold and crude oil should underpin this market today.
The AUD USD is trading lower after Wednesdayâ€™s rally failed
to attract fresh buying. The charts are now indicating the possibility of a
second lower top at .9337. Downside pressure is building which could drive this
market into a support cluster at .9200 to .9191.
Fundamentally traders are confused about the next move by
the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Earlier in the month, a report showing that mortgage approvals had fallen
pressured the Aussie as it indicated that the RBA would hold rates steady at
its next meeting in May. Earlier this week however, the RBA minutes indicated
the possibility of a rate hike because of concerns about inflation. With these
two reports neutralizing each other, traders may be selling the Australian
Dollar on the thought that China
was reading to revalue the Yuan.
The NZD USD is trading slightly better but still inside of a
tight range. .7124 continues to repel rallies. A breakout over this price will
be a strong indication that the Kiwi is going to move higher. A break through
.7052 could trigger a sharp break.
Traders arenâ€™t sure which direction the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
will take at its next meeting. The economy doesnâ€™t seem to be strong enough to
begin hiking rates, but the RBNZ may be feeling pressure to increase interest
rates because of the recent hikes by Australia and the anticipated hike
by the Bank of Canada in June.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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