Euro Touches New Low for Year; No Solution to Debt Woes in Sight
The Euro touched a new low for the year, taking out the late
March bottom at 1.3267. Although the break to 1.3257 was met with profit-taking
and bottom picking, the fundamentals are still suggesting that this pair has a
long way to go before support is established.
By all reports, Greece continues to move closer to
sovereign debt default. It looks as if the bailout from the EU/IMF proposed
earlier in the month will not be enough to meet Greeceâ€™s financial obligations. The
cost to finance the debt is sky-rocketing so unless there is a plan in the
works to rewrite Greeceâ€™s
financial obligations it looks as if it has no choice but to default. Contagion
is another concern for investors. As the Greek financial situation worsens, so
do the financial problems in Portugal
The spread between Greece Bonds and German Bunds continues
to be the best indication that there is risk of default. Yesterday this spread
traded over 500 basis points. On Thursday, the Dollar rose against the Euro
despite on-going talks to activate the loan agreement between Greece and the
International Monetary Fund. Short-traders believe there is not enough money in
this agreement to help Greece
over the long-run.
After a healthy three-day rally, the GBP USD closed lower
following the release of a worse than expected U.K. retail sales report. March
retail sales showed an increase of 0.4%. The increase was less than economist
estimates of 0.6%. Traders reacted by selling the British Pound as the report
indicated the possibility of slower growth in the economy.
Earlier in the week, the British Pound rose after the
government reported higher than expected consumer inflation. This news
triggered a rally in the Sterling,
but gains were limited on election concerns. Recent polls are showing the May
6th election may result in no party have a significant majority. This could
lead to a hung parliament meaning legislation to cut the U.K. deficit may be limited.
Overnight Fitch Ratings issued a statement which could weigh
on the Japanese Yen over the near-term. In commenting on the level of Japanese
debt, Fitch said the Japanese government â€śis one of the most indebted in the
world.â€ť It further added â€śIn absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal
consolidation, government debt will continue to rise, placing downwards
pressure on sovereign credit and ratings over the medium term.â€ť
The initial reaction by traders drove the USD JPY to 93.34,
but weakening demand for higher yielding assets helped the Japanese Yen recover
as investors sought safety in lower yielding assets. A late session turnaround
equity markets helped drive down demand for lower yielding currencies,
triggering a surge in the USD JPY.The
rally helped take out earlier resistance at a 50% level at 93.18, sending this
pair to the .618 level at 93.55.
The USD CAD confirmed Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal
bottom at .9929. There was very little follow-through to the upside however, as
a late session surge in demand for higher risk assets helped to limit gains.
On Wednesday, the USD CAD hit a new 22-month low but there
was very little follow-through to the downside. This is usually an indication
of an oversold market. Technically, the closing price reversal bottom indicates
an impending short-covering rally which could send this pair up to 1.0072 to
1.0106. It looks as if increased demand for higher yielding assets will dictate
the short-term direction of this pair. The longer-term outlook is for the Canadian
Dollar to appreciate against the U.S. Dollar due to a better economy and higher
The AUD USD traded lower early in the session after
Wednesdayâ€™s rally failed to attract fresh buying, but a late session rally in U.S. equity
markets helped fuel a short-covering rally. The charts are indicating the possibility of a
second lower top at .9337. Downside pressure is building which could drive this
market into a support cluster at .9200 to .9191.
Fundamentally traders are confused about the next move by
the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Earlier in the month, a report showing that mortgage approvals had fallen
pressured the Aussie as it indicated that the RBA would hold rates steady at
its next meeting in May. Earlier this week however, the RBA minutes indicated
the possibility of a rate hike because of concerns about inflation. With these
two reports neutralizing each other, traders may be selling the Australian
Dollar on the thought that China
was reading to revalue the Yuan.
Continue to look for a choppy two-sided trade until traders
get a clear picture of the RBAâ€™s upcoming interest rate decision, China decides
on the revaluation of the Yuan or global equity markets take off to the upside.
The NZD USD traded in a tight range and finished slightly
better. .7124 continues to repel rallies. A breakout over this price will be a
strong indication that the Kiwi is going to move higher. A break through .7052
could trigger a sharp break.
Traders arenâ€™t sure which direction the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
will take at its next meeting. The economy doesnâ€™t seem to be strong enough to
begin hiking rates, but the RBNZ may be feeling pressure to increase interest
rates because of the recent hikes by Australia and the anticipated hike
by the Bank of Canada in June.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.