Stocks Recover after Obama fails to Scare Investors
U.S. stock markets surged
following early weakness after President Obama failed to reveal any new plans
to regulate U.S.
financial markets. On the opening stocks were down because of escalating Greek
debt problems and fear that Obama would announce more austere financial market
Later in the day, stocks began to recover after selling dried up following
the release of better than expected existing home sales. President Obamaâ€™s
speech served as a catalyst after the mid-session and into the close. Traders
seemed to show little reaction throughout the session after the Euro touched a
new low for the year.
Although investors will be keeping one eye on the situation in Greece, they
seem to be reacting as if the problem is becoming manageable.
June Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes both posted daily closing price
reversal tops, perhaps signaling the end to the current rally. The Treasuries
began their slide after U.S.
equity markets bottomed. Traders had been buying T-Bonds and T-Notes in
anticipation of a break in equity markets due to Greece concerns, worries about
corporate earnings and President Obamaâ€™s speech.
June Crude Oil failed to break to the downside after stocks began to recover.
Todayâ€™s action surprised short traders because of the weaker Euro and the
stronger Dollar. Crude oil found buyers right after a slight penetration of the
recent bottom at 82.05. The strong close has this market in a position to turn
the main trend back to up on a trade through the last swing top at 84.64.
Traders do not seem to be paying too much to the supply/demand fundamentals
instead choosing to concentrate on the risk sentiment for direction.
The stronger Dollar kept pressure on June Gold throughout the day until
about the mid-session when demand for higher risk assets began to increase. On
the upside, $1147.50 to $1153.00 continues to remain a resistance zone. A break
through $1124.30 will turn the main trend lower.
After a healthy three-day rally, the GBP USD closed lower following the
release of a worse than expected U.K. retail sales report. March retail sales
showed an increase of 0.4%. The increase was less than economist estimates of
0.6%. Traders reacted by selling the British Pound as the report indicated the
possibility of slower growth in the economy.
Earlier in the week, the British Pound rose after the government reported
higher than expected consumer inflation. This news triggered a rally in the Sterling, but gains were
limited on election concerns. Recent polls are showing the May 6th election may
result in no party have a significant majority. This could lead to a hung
parliament meaning legislation to cut the U.K. deficit may be limited.
The Euro touched a new low for the year, taking out the late March bottom at
1.3267. Although the break to 1.3257 was met with profit-taking and bottom
picking, the fundamentals are still suggesting that this pair has a long way to
go before support is established.
By all reports, Greece
continues to move closer to sovereign debt default. It looks as if the bailout
from the EU/IMF proposed earlier in the month will not be enough to meet Greeceâ€™s
financial obligations. The cost to finance the debt is sky-rocketing so unless
there is a plan in the works to rewrite Greeceâ€™s financial obligations it
looks as if it has no choice but to default. Contagion is another concern for
investors. As the Greek financial situation worsens, so do the financial
problems in Portugal and Spain.
The spread between Greece Bonds and German Bunds continues to be the best
indication that there is risk of default. Yesterday this spread traded over 500
basis points. On Thursday, the Dollar rose against the Euro despite on-going
talks to activate the loan agreement between Greece and the International
Monetary Fund. Short-traders believe there is not enough money in this
agreement to help Greece
over the long-run.
Overnight Fitch Ratings issued a statement which could weigh on the Japanese
Yen over the near-term. In commenting on the level of Japanese debt, Fitch said
the Japanese government â€śis one of the most indebted in the world.â€ť It further
added â€śIn absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation,
government debt will continue to rise, placing downwards pressure on sovereign
credit and ratings over the medium term.â€ť
The initial reaction by traders drove the USD JPY to 93.34, but weakening
demand for higher yielding assets helped the Japanese Yen recover as investors
sought safety in lower yielding assets. A late session turnaround in U.S. equity
markets helped drive down demand for lower yielding currencies, triggering a
surge in the USD JPY. The rally helped take out earlier resistance at a 50%
level at 93.18, sending this pair to the .618 level at 93.55.
The USD CAD confirmed Wednesdayâ€™s closing price reversal bottom at .9929.
There was very little follow-through to the upside however, as a late session
surge in demand for higher risk assets helped to limit gains.
On Wednesday, the USD CAD hit a new 22-month low but there was very little
follow-through to the downside. This is usually an indication of an oversold
market. Technically, the closing price reversal bottom indicates an impending
short-covering rally which could send this pair up to 1.0072 to 1.0106. It
looks as if increased demand for higher yielding assets will dictate the
short-term direction of this pair. The longer-term outlook is for the Canadian
Dollar to appreciate against the U.S. Dollar due to a better economy and higher
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Tue 31 July 2018 AA JP- Bank of Japan A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence Wed 1 Aug 2018 A Final Mfg PMIs AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls A 15:00 US- EIA Crude AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision Thu 2 Aug 2018 AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 3 Aug 2018 A Final Services PMIs AA 12:30 US- Employment A 12:30 US/CA- Trade
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.