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Friday April 23, 2010 - 00:15:40 GMT
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Stocks Recover after Obama fails to Scare Investors

U.S. stock markets surged following early weakness after President Obama failed to reveal any new plans to regulate U.S. financial markets. On the opening stocks were down because of escalating Greek debt problems and fear that Obama would announce more austere financial market restrictions.

Later in the day, stocks began to recover after selling dried up following the release of better than expected existing home sales. President Obama’s speech served as a catalyst after the mid-session and into the close. Traders seemed to show little reaction throughout the session after the Euro touched a new low for the year.

Although investors will be keeping one eye on the situation in Greece, they seem to be reacting as if the problem is becoming manageable.

June Treasury Bonds and June Treasury Notes both posted daily closing price reversal tops, perhaps signaling the end to the current rally. The Treasuries began their slide after U.S. equity markets bottomed. Traders had been buying T-Bonds and T-Notes in anticipation of a break in equity markets due to Greece concerns, worries about corporate earnings and President Obama’s speech.

June Crude Oil failed to break to the downside after stocks began to recover. Today’s action surprised short traders because of the weaker Euro and the stronger Dollar. Crude oil found buyers right after a slight penetration of the recent bottom at 82.05. The strong close has this market in a position to turn the main trend back to up on a trade through the last swing top at 84.64. Traders do not seem to be paying too much to the supply/demand fundamentals instead choosing to concentrate on the risk sentiment for direction.

The stronger Dollar kept pressure on June Gold throughout the day until about the mid-session when demand for higher risk assets began to increase. On the upside, $1147.50 to $1153.00 continues to remain a resistance zone. A break through $1124.30 will turn the main trend lower.

After a healthy three-day rally, the GBP USD closed lower following the release of a worse than expected U.K. retail sales report. March retail sales showed an increase of 0.4%. The increase was less than economist estimates of 0.6%. Traders reacted by selling the British Pound as the report indicated the possibility of slower growth in the economy.

Earlier in the week, the British Pound rose after the government reported higher than expected consumer inflation. This news triggered a rally in the Sterling, but gains were limited on election concerns. Recent polls are showing the May 6th election may result in no party have a significant majority. This could lead to a hung parliament meaning legislation to cut the U.K. deficit may be limited.

The Euro touched a new low for the year, taking out the late March bottom at 1.3267. Although the break to 1.3257 was met with profit-taking and bottom picking, the fundamentals are still suggesting that this pair has a long way to go before support is established.

By all reports, Greece continues to move closer to sovereign debt default. It looks as if the bailout from the EU/IMF proposed earlier in the month will not be enough to meet Greece’s financial obligations. The cost to finance the debt is sky-rocketing so unless there is a plan in the works to rewrite Greece’s financial obligations it looks as if it has no choice but to default. Contagion is another concern for investors. As the Greek financial situation worsens, so do the financial problems in Portugal and Spain.

The spread between Greece Bonds and German Bunds continues to be the best indication that there is risk of default. Yesterday this spread traded over 500 basis points. On Thursday, the Dollar rose against the Euro despite on-going talks to activate the loan agreement between Greece and the International Monetary Fund. Short-traders believe there is not enough money in this agreement to help Greece over the long-run.

Overnight Fitch Ratings issued a statement which could weigh on the Japanese Yen over the near-term. In commenting on the level of Japanese debt, Fitch said the Japanese government “is one of the most indebted in the world.” It further added “In absence of sustained economic recovery and fiscal consolidation, government debt will continue to rise, placing downwards pressure on sovereign credit and ratings over the medium term.”

The initial reaction by traders drove the USD JPY to 93.34, but weakening demand for higher yielding assets helped the Japanese Yen recover as investors sought safety in lower yielding assets. A late session turnaround in U.S. equity markets helped drive down demand for lower yielding currencies, triggering a surge in the USD JPY. The rally helped take out earlier resistance at a 50% level at 93.18, sending this pair to the .618 level at 93.55.

The USD CAD confirmed Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom at .9929. There was very little follow-through to the upside however, as a late session surge in demand for higher risk assets helped to limit gains.

On Wednesday, the USD CAD hit a new 22-month low but there was very little follow-through to the downside. This is usually an indication of an oversold market. Technically, the closing price reversal bottom indicates an impending short-covering rally which could send this pair up to 1.0072 to 1.0106. It looks as if increased demand for higher yielding assets will dictate the short-term direction of this pair. The longer-term outlook is for the Canadian Dollar to appreciate against the U.S. Dollar due to a better economy and higher interest rates.



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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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