Friday April 23, 2010 - 03:45:49 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 23-Apr-2010 - 0343 GMT
The US Equities ended higher yesterday. The Dow (11134.29) closed flat and the Nasdaq (2519.07) closed up 0.58% after trading lower in the first half of the session. The Dow is moving very cautiously after crossing 11100 and we need to wait and watch if the Resistance in the region of 11100-200 is honoured or broken.
The Asian equities are mixed today. The Nikkei (10914.83) is down 0.31%, the Shanghai (3003.32) is up 0.13% and the Hang Seng (21325.39) is down 0.60%. In India, the Sensex (17573.99) was up 0.58% and the Nifty (5269.35) was up 0.47% in a volatile trading session yesterday. The Sensex may move in the range of 17300-700 in the next few sessions, before a break-out on the either side.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4920.80) is down 0.32%.
Crude (83.79) has bounced back from yesterday's low of 81.73. The stronger US equity market supported the bounce back though the dollar is trading strong. As mentioned earlier, with Support in the broad 82-80 region, the overall picture looks bullish for a rise to 88-90 in the coming days/weeks. To see the Crude graph click on the following link:
Gold (1140.20) is ranged between 1130-50 over the last few days. The stronger dollar is restricting the upmove. But comparatively, a sharp downmove is not reflected in the Commodity's price as against the strong dollar. This divergence coupled with the Support at the broad 1140-00 region, keeps up the overall bullish sentiment intact.
Sharp fall in the Euro (1.3220) overnight after the EU estimated the Greek deficit to be higher than previously esitmated. The fall is significant and opens up the possibility of a further decline towards 1.30. Dollar-Swiss (1.0840) has shot up, past 1.0740, as the Euro-Swiss Cross has remained stable. A further rally to test the Feb-10 high near 1.0890. The Euro-Yen Cross (123.45) too has been dragged down by the Euro, but may have Support at 123.00 because the Dollar-Yen (93.50) might move up towards 94+.
Although the Pound (1.5335) has also weakened overnight, it has not fallen as much as the Euro, as it serves as an alternative to the Euro. Support is seen at 1.5295. The Aussie (0.9225) has been falling for the last three days, coming down from a high near 0.9340 on Wednesday. Possibly its struggle to rise past 0.94 might bring it down to 0.9150-9100 before it can rise afresh.
The Asian currencies seem to be mixed. USD-KRW trades lower near 1108.10 while the USD-SGD has dipped slightly to 1.370. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 44.54 yesterday after having dipped to near 44.42. Expect a range of 44.40-60 (narrow) or 44.30-70 (wider) to prevail today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was up 1bps to be set at 0.32%. The 2y and 10Y yields were up 3 bps and 2 bps each to quote at 1.02% and 3.76%.
08:30 GMT UK GDP Q1 '10 (Adv)
...Expected 0.4%...Previous 0.4%
09:00 GMT Mar GER IFO Business Expectations
09:00 GMT Mar GER IFO Business Situations
09:00 GMT Mar GER IFO Business Climate
...Expected 98.9...Previous 98.1
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
12:30 GMT Mar US Durable Goods Orders
...Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.9%
14:00 GMT Mar US New Home Sales
...Expected 323K...Previous 308K
US Mar Core PPI (MoM)
...Actual 0.1%...Previous 0.1%
US Mar Core PPI (YoY)
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 1.0%
Mar US Existing Home Sales
...Actual 5.35 Mln...Previous 5.01 Mln
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