Daily GVI Forex Forex View- What a Difference a Day Makes...
The Daily Forex View
10:00 GMT- Apr 23 (global-view.com) At this hour, markets are waiting fro an announcement by the Greek Prime Minister. He is expected formally to request an activation of aid from the EU and IMF. Soaring bond yields in recent days are seen as the trigger for this request. This development is seen as a positive in that it brings the debt crisis one step closer to a resolution. The EURUSD is up on the news.
The key German IFO survey released today saw another set of very strong data. Eurozone new industrial orders were also exceptionally strong. Absent Greece these data should have been EUR positive. The U.K. saw weaker than expected advance 1Q10 GDP data.
The EURUSD has been volatile but is now higher on the day while the EURGBP is up. The GBPUSD is down. The details of a Greek request to activate the EU/IMF accord are due shortly. Markets are keeping a close watch on the Greek credit default swaps.
In the GBP, traders are zeroed in on the May 6 U.K. general election. Expectations for a close vote have everyone watching new election headlines. Polls are suggesting that the odds of a hung Parliament are rising. This is the worst case scenario according to some. With no party winning a clear majority difficult decisions that must be made could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play with negative implications.
Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is continues to trade a narrow range. The SNB has changed its intervention tactics. The SNB has has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. CHF a lot of the time. There is talk the SNB pulled out of the market for a few moments on Wednesday and this saw the EURCHF gap lower before they returned. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is lower, and the EURJPY cross is unchanged. Toushin bonds set for issuance this week and could undermine the unit. Comments by the rating agency Fitch that Japan's public finances are a worry are a reminder of their weak finances. The Hatoyama government wants an easier exchange rate and it continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth. Ruling party lawmakers (DPJ) have called on the government to push the USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade is off. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. The Bank of Canada has sent a signal that rates could be hiked as early as June 1. Canadian FinMin Flaherty has suggested little concern about CAD strength. BOC Governor Carney reinforced the view that a strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are down. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.
Far East equities closed lower. European bourses are up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.79%, +2 bps. Bonds are used as a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: In North America, Canadian CPI and Retail Sales are expected. U.S. durable goods and new homes sales are on the docket.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com in 1996. Before that, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in the fx inter-bank and futures trading arm of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was an early member of the Chemical Bank (NYC) corporate advisory service. He also worked in international liability management. John has an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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