equity markets are called higher this morning. After selling off early in the
trading session, global stock markets turned positive after Greece announced that it was going
to activate the loan mechanism proposed by the EU/IMF. This triggered renewed
demand for risk as it temporarily took a major investor concern off the table.
Trading conditions could be volatile today as details of the bailout plan are
released throughout the day.
Yesterday President Obamaâ€™s speech on government regulation
was not as harsh as traderâ€™s expected. This helped turn the market around late
in the session after an early profit-taking setback. The Greek developments
overnight have calmed the markets somewhat meaning earnings and economic news
may carry more weight today.
Durable Goods gets reported today. Traders want to see if
this report reflects renewed consumer spending. At 9am CDT, New Home Sales will
be reported. On Thursday, existing home sales helped contribute to the rally.
Today traders want to see if a trend is developing in the housing market.
Yesterdayâ€™s closing price reversal top in the June Treasury
Bonds was confirmed overnight. The easing of tensions in Greece helped traders take risk off
the table. Downside pressure could take this market to 116â€™15 over the
near-term. Itâ€™s all about risk today. If trader sense risk developing then look
for T-Bonds to rally. If traders shun risk then look for further downside
June Gold traders are taking a â€śwait and seeâ€ť attitude this
morning. Traders are trying to digest exactly what is going on between the EU
If traders sense the Euro is on the brink of collapse then speculators will buy
gold. Gold may also stabilize if the Dollar weakens substantially. June gold is
actually trading as if it expects the Dollar to strengthen throughout the day
as new shorts get placed on the Euro.
June Crude Oil is steady overnight. Traders know the rally
in the Euro is short-covering. Like the gold traders, they are assessing the
EU/Greek situation. Technically, the chart pattern indicates impending
volatility. A rally through 84.64 will trigger a sharp break to the upside. A
break through 82.05 is likely to fuel a collapse.
The week long surge in borrowing costs finally forced Greece
to formally ask to tap the 45 billion Euro ($60 billion) rescue package
provided by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
The unprecedented move by Greece threatens both the Euroâ€™s
stability and the structure of the European Union. Traders are now asking if Greece gets the money then what about Spain, Portugal
and Ireland.Many feel that these three countries are next
in line for a rescue as debt problems spread across Europe.
Based on current developments, the very existence of the Euro is now being
When the Euro was created a little over 11 years ago, the
founding fathers gave the European Central Bank the power to control interest
rates and fiscal responsibility to the individual countries. The current crisis
has threatened the cohesion of the European Union as many member countries have
turned their back on the sovereign debt problems of struggling member nations.
These â€śsolventâ€ť nations are going to have to be convinced that the Euro is
worth saving by ponying up the funds necessary to save the economies of the
struggling members or risk debt default and the collapse of the Euro.
With the cost to service its debt sky-rocketing everyday,
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had no choice but to ask for the money.
After reaching unsustainable levels that were destroying the efforts by the
Greek government to cut its budget deficit, Greece had to cave in and make the
request for bailout funding. As of last night, the cost to finance 5-year Greek
credit default swaps soared to 623 basis points before settling at 590 bp after
the rumors of the activation of the rescue plan began to circulate.
Although the Euro rallied in a short-covering rally as news
broke of the bailout, investors still have to be pessimistic about the
viability of the Euro. The main concern at this time is the inability of the
European Union to come up with concrete rules regarding the terms of the
bailout loans. Prior to the bailout proposal put together in haste earlier in
the month, the EU had no such plan. In looking-back, it looks as if that plan
was not designed to strengthen the Euro, but to stem the pace of its decline.
Now that Plan A has failed, the prospects for Plan B do not
look that much better as EU members appear to be making up this plan as they go
along. The trick is going to be trying to convince the solvent EU members that Greece
is worth saving. Furthermore, the EU member are most likely going to have to
consider putting together a plan which also provides aid for Spain, Portugal
and Ireland or any other nation that will need aid. The second part of the
equation may be considering booting all of these struggling nations out of the
club since it has already been proven that despite austere measures to shore up
the budget, the capital markets are really controlling the show.
Traders and investors want clarity at this point. They want
to have a fully understandable mechanism plan in place as soon as possible to
prevent the collapse of the Euro. If history gives us any clues, however, the
EU will drag its feet and fail to live up to its responsibility as a partner. Germany especially will be the biggest hurdle
and the other sovereign nations to overcome. Not only are the Germans against
any kind of bailout plan, but the Greek citizens feel that a bailout will make
them appear weak to the global community. This means that eventually the next
bailout plan will fall squarely in the hands of the International Monetary
Forex Trading News
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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