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Friday April 23, 2010 - 19:32:41 GMT
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Short-Covering Rally Continues in Euro

The Euro continued its short covering rally at the mid-session following the surprise announcement overnight that Greece was going to ask the EU and IMF to release the funds they pledged two weeks ago to help the Greek government shore up its budget deficit.

Although the financial problems in the Euro Zone are expected to persist for quite some time and may even spread to other member countries while the EU and IMF decide how they are going to help provide the needed aid, shorts have decided to cover with a vengeance today. No serious damage has been done to the Euro’s downtrend and any rally is likely to be sold again because no base has been built to support a rally at this time.

Most long-term investors feel that the rescue process is going to take a long time; meanwhile financial problems are expected to spread to Spain, Portugal and Ireland. This would mean that not only will the new rescue plan cover Greece, but it will have to include the aforementioned nations. At this time the credibility of the Euro and the European Union are at stake.

The British Pound is under pressure at the mid-session. The unwinding of short Euro/Long British Pound spreads is helping to pressure the Sterling. In addition, investors are still nervous that the U.K. economy faces the same fate as the Greek economy if it doesn’t shore up its budget deficit. Traders are also nervous that the upcoming election may result in a hung parliament which could thwart the efforts of the government to establish a plan to fix the U.K.’s fiscal problems.

After surging to the upside, the USD CHF has turned negative. The rising Euro is helping to pressure the Dollar/Swiss as this move lessens the chances of an intervention by the Swiss National Bank. The SNB may act, however, if volatility gets to high.

The strong surge in U.S. equity markets is helping to drive the USD JPY sharply higher. Because of the Euro move and the possibility that Greece may get the much needed financial aid it needs, traders have taken risk concerns off the table and are putting funds in higher yielding assets. Traders are borrowing the Yen to invest in the higher yielding U.S. Dollar.

Oversold conditions are helping to contribute to the rise in the USD CAD. Traders for the most part are ignoring the rise in equities, gold and crude oil. Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom has been confirmed. The chart pattern suggests the next upside objective is 1.0072 to 1.0106. This is most likely a short-term rally. Earlier this week, the Bank of Canada said it would begin raising rates sooner than previously expected.

The AUD USD is trading lower but mounting a small comeback into the mid-session. A downtrend is developing in the Aussie currency because investors are unsure of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next move because of mixed economic data. Traders may also be gearing up for a possible revaluation of the Chinese Yuan which is supposed to be bearish for Australian exports.

The NZD USD is trading better at the mid-session. The weaker Aussie is encouraging traders to unwind long Aussie/short Kiwi spreads. Traders also feel that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is next in line for an interest rate hike since the Australian central bank has been hiking rates for several months and the Bank of Canada is pledging a rate hike in June. Technically, this market found support on an uptrending Gann angle at .7080. A close over .7124 will be a sign of strength. A huge breakout over .7199 is likely if upside momentum continues.


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