16:00 GMT- Apr 23 (global-view.com) The markets are ending a volatile week that centered on a number of ups and downs on Greece on an up note. Friday finally saw the Greek government formally request an activation of aid from the EU and IMF. Soaring bond yields in recent days were the trigger for the request. Our best guess is that worry over the bond markets forced the hand of Germany. This development was seen as a positive in that it brings the debt crisis one step closer to a resolution. The EURUSD is up on the news.
The key German IFO survey released Friday saw another set of very strong data. Eurozone new industrial orders were also exceptionally strong. Absent Greece these data should have been EUR positive. The U.K. saw weaker than expected advance 1Q10 GDP data. Short-covering late in the day gave the EUR a lift It is unclear if Friday marks a turning point for the EUR, but the odds are that Greece has been removed from the table for a while.
The EURUSD has been volatile but is now higher on the day. The GBPUSD is down, while the EURGBP is up. The details of a Greek request to activate the EU/IMF accord has helped the EURUSD. Markets should continue to keep a sharp eye on Greek credit default swaps.
In the GBP, traders are zeroing in on the May 6 U.K. general election. Ongoing expectations for a close vote have everyone watching election headlines. Polls suggest that the odds for a hung Parliament are rising. This is a worst case scenario according to some. With no party winning a clear majority, difficult decisions that must be made could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play with negative implications.
Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is continues to trade a narrow range. The SNB has changed its intervention tactics. The SNB has has been in the markets supporting the EUR vs. CHF consistently. There is talk the SNB pulled out of the market for a few moments on Wednesday and this saw the EURCHF gap lower before they quickly returned. Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is higher, and the EURJPY cross up sharply. Comments by the rating agency Fitch that Japan's public finances are a worry are a reminder of their weak finances. The Hatoyama government wants an easier exchange rate and it continues to pressure the Bank of Japan to stimulate growth. Ruling party lawmakers (DPJ) have called on the government to push the USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade is off. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. The Bank of Canada sent a signal that rates could be hiked as early as June 1. Canadian FinMin Flaherty and BOC Governor Carney have suggested little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are up. We still favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.
Far East equities closed lower. European bourses were up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.81%, +4 bps. Bonds are used as a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Monday in the Far East and Europe will see no major data. In North America, the U.S.will hold a 5-yr TIPS auction.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.