Monday April 26, 2010 - 03:39:54 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 26-Apr-2010 - 0337 GMT
The US Equities were up last week. The Dow (11204.28) was up 1.68% and the Nasdaq (2530.15) was up 1.97%. The Dow has closed above the Resistance region of 11100-200 on the weekly charts and may rise towards 11800-12000, while above 11150 in the coming weeks.
All Asians are trading higher today. The Nikkei (11141.31) is up 2.08% on account of weaker Yen and better than expected results of Toyota. The Shanghai (2989.93) is up 0.21% and the Hang Seng (21595.81) is up 1.65%. In India, the Sensex (17694.20) was up 0.59% and the Nifty (5304.10) was up 0.79%, last week. The Sensex may rise towards 18300-500 while above 17500 in the next few weeks.
Australia is closed today on account of Anzac Day.
Gold (1160.30) has moved up from last Monday's low of 1124.30 and is likely to target 1180 over this week or the next. Crude (85.50) has also moved up through last week from last Monday's low of 80.53 and looks good to target 90 in the coming weeks. However, it does have some Resistance near 86.50-85 in the near term.
The Pound (1.5430) and the Aussie (0.9285) are doing relatively well today, having bounced from near 1.53 and 0.9175 respectively late last week. Both seem to have benefited on two counts, (a) being seen as an alternative to the Euro and (b) weakening of the Yen. Note that Dollar-Yen has risen well to 94.30 today and is close to testing the 01-Apr high near 94.70. The Euro itself has bounced from a low near 1.32 last week, as people cover some of their Short-Greece-and-Euro trades. There is a 50% chance of the Euro finding lasting Support at 1.32. The other 50% chance is that it may fall further to 1.30.
Dollar-Swiss (1.0735) has, of course, come down from last week's high near 1.0850, reflecting the bounce in the Euro.
In Asia, the Sing Dollar has strengthened further to 1.3675. There are increased chances now of further gains towards the Jul-08 Low near 1.3447. Dollar-Won is also stronger near 1103. Dollar-Rupee had closed lower near 44.43 on Friday and might fall today on account of strength in the Asians as well as Equities.
The 3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.32%. The 2y and 10Y yields were up 5 bps and 6 bps each to quote at 1.07% and 3.82%.
FOMC Meeting is due on Wednesday, Apr-28-10.
No major data releases today.
UK GDP Q1 '10 (Adv)
...Actual 0.2%...Previous 0.4%
Mar GER IFO Business Expectations
...Actual 104...Previous 102
Mar GER IFO Business Situations
...Actual 99.3...Previous 94.5
Mar GER IFO Business Climate
...Actual 101.6...Previous 98.2
11:00 GMT CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Actual 1.7% ...Previous 2.1%
Mar US Durable Goods Orders
...Actual -1.3%...Previous 1.1%
Mar US New Home Sales
...Actual 411K...Previous 324K
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