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Monday April 26, 2010 - 10:45:25 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/04/2010

ForexPros Daily Analysis April 26, 2010


Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke

Traders of the US look forward to Fed Chairman Bernanke who will be testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and financial markets.
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

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Euro Dollar

The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 1.3300, and created what we considered a “surprise” with this break, then it successfully reached the first suggested target for this break 1.3387. Our target has turned into today’s resistance, since it managed to stop the rise from 1.3200 ( Friday’s high was 1.3398 ) . The issue for today is whether Fibonacci 38.2% will continue to hold in front of this strong climb which achieved almost 200 pips in less than 24 hours, or will it give way to more gains? The first scenario, which we slightly prefer is for Fibonacci to hold, and for the price to start drifting away from it, and finally to break short term support 1.3334. IF this level is broken, the drop will be hard, and will target approaching last week’s low, and the lowest level since Apr 30th 2009 which was 1.3200, since we notice an important intraday support at 1.3204. IF we fall further, 1.3113 will be the next station. The second scenario is for the price to break Fibonacci resistance 1.3387, and if this happens, the price will jump to 1.3445, and then to the most important Fibonacci level 1.3503. We still see this at the maximum, the upper limit, for the EURUSD at this stage, breaking this resistance will be a huge surprise to us.

Support:
• 1.3334: Asian session low.
• 1.3204: important intraday support, very close to last week’s, and one-year low.
• 1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.

Resistance:
• 1.3387: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart, and Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
• 1.3445: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
• 1.3503: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3690.

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USD/JPY

Finally, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance which we focused all our attention all through last week 93.62, and successfully reached the first suggested target 94.24. With the break of this important resistance, after days of waiting, it immediately turned into the most important support. It is crucial for the Dollar to preserve gains and hold above this support/resistance in order to achieve more gains. If we hold above it, the price will have another chance to attack the resistance 94.30. If this one is also broken, we will reach the 95 areas for the first time since August, since the targets for such a break are 95.05 & 95.90. But if the price goes back to trade under 93.62, it will go back to its favorite hobby of breaking & retreating. The targets for such a retreat will be the very important 92.56, which is provided by the rising trend line from 88.12. Breaking this line will see us fall to 91.89.

Support:
• 93.62: the previous important resistance, and the rising trend line from Apr 19th bottom on intraday charts.
• 92.56: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart.
• 91.89: last Friday’s low.

Resistance:
• 94.30: important intraday bottom.
• 95.05: Aug 24th high.
• 95.90: Jul 29th low.

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Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for ForexPros.

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Disclaimer:

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

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Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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