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Monday April 26, 2010 - 10:45:25 GMT
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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 26/04/2010
ForexPros Daily Analysis April 26, 2010
Fundamental Analysis: Fed Chairman Bernanke
Traders of the US look forward to Fed Chairman Bernanke who will be
testifying in Washington DC, regarding America's economic outlook and
His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
The Euro broke the resistance specified in Fridayâ€™s report 1.3300, and
created what we considered a â€śsurpriseâ€ť with this break, then it
successfully reached the first suggested target for this break 1.3387.
Our target has turned into todayâ€™s resistance, since it managed to stop
the rise from 1.3200 ( Fridayâ€™s high was 1.3398 ) . The issue for today
is whether Fibonacci 38.2% will continue to hold in front of this
strong climb which achieved almost 200 pips in less than 24 hours, or
will it give way to more gains? The first scenario, which we slightly
prefer is for Fibonacci to hold, and for the price to start drifting
away from it, and finally to break short term support 1.3334. IF this
level is broken, the drop will be hard, and will target approaching last
weekâ€™s low, and the lowest level since Apr 30th 2009 which was 1.3200,
since we notice an important intraday support at 1.3204. IF we fall
further, 1.3113 will be the next station. The second scenario is for the
price to break Fibonacci resistance 1.3387, and if this happens, the
price will jump to 1.3445, and then to the most important Fibonacci
level 1.3503. We still see this at the maximum, the upper limit, for the
EURUSD at this stage, breaking this resistance will be a huge surprise
â€˘ 1.3334: Asian session low.
â€˘ 1.3204: important intraday support, very close to last weekâ€™s, and
â€˘ 1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
â€˘ 1.3387: the top of the falling channel on the hourly chart, and
Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
â€˘ 1.3445: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
â€˘ 1.3503: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3690.
Finally, Dollar-Yen broke the resistance which we focused all our
attention all through last week 93.62, and successfully reached the
first suggested target 94.24. With the break of this important
resistance, after days of waiting, it immediately turned into the most
important support. It is crucial for the Dollar to preserve gains and
hold above this support/resistance in order to achieve more gains. If we
hold above it, the price will have another chance to attack the
resistance 94.30. If this one is also broken, we will reach the 95 areas
for the first time since August, since the targets for such a break are
95.05 & 95.90. But if the price goes back to trade under 93.62, it
will go back to its favorite hobby of breaking & retreating. The
targets for such a retreat will be the very important 92.56, which is
provided by the rising trend line from 88.12. Breaking this line will
see us fall to 91.89.
â€˘ 93.62: the previous important resistance, and the rising trend line
from Apr 19th bottom on intraday charts.
â€˘ 92.56: the rising trend line from 88.12 on hourly chart.
â€˘ 91.89: last Fridayâ€™s low.
â€˘ 94.30: important intraday bottom.
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
â€˘ 95.90: Jul 29th low.
Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash
Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be
suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether
trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge,
and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial
investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to
change at any time.
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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
John M. Bland, MBA
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
- POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude
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