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Monday April 26, 2010 - 13:58:57 GMT
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Shorts Regain Control of Euro

Bearish short traders are slowly regaining control of the EUR USD overnight. On Friday weaker shorts bailed out of the Euro after Greece announced that it was going to formally announce to the European Union and the International Monetary Fund that it needed to trigger the loan mechanism built into the recent loan bailout proposal.

 

The lack of clarity, as to how much funding Greece needs and how the loan mechanism works, are raising concerns among investors. At this crucial time, investors are looking for clarity. It seems to be the uncertainty of the process that is encouraging renewed selling pressure this morning. Investors not only want to know if there will be plenty of money available for Greece, but also the terms of the loans. One of the biggest concerns is will Greece have to keep coming back to the EU/IMF for help. Traders also want to know if countries like Spain, Portugal and Ireland will have access to similar loans should problems escalate in those countries.

 

The weakness overnight is clearly a sign that the shorts are in control of this market. Furthermore, since capital market investors have been setting high premiums against default, they too have been enjoying a distinct advantage over the Greek government. Unless the EU/IMF comes up with a viable long-term solution to shoring up the Greek economy, look for downside pressure to continue on the Euro. If the sovereign debt issues move across Europe, look for the Euro to accelerate to the downside.

 

Better economic reports and a weaker Euro are driving up demand for the GBP USD. Overnight momentum has this market in a position to challenge the recent top at 1.5523. A breakout over this level could trigger a further rally to a key 50% level at 1.5618. Traders seem to be ignoring the possibility of a hung parliament following the May 6th election. Investors have been limiting gains recently on the thought that a hung parliament will mean that reaching a solution to erasing the budget deficit will be difficult.

 

Expectations of a stronger opening in U.S. equity markets are helping to boost the USD JPY. Besides the threat of deflation against the Japanese economy, low interest rates continue to make this currency the carry market of choice.

 

Demand for higher risk assets is helping to pressure the USD CAD after a two-day rally. Short-term, this market is a little oversold which may be leading to the slow down in downside momentum. Longer-term, the strengthening economy and the threat of rising interest rates is making the Canadian Dollar a desirable long-term investment. Even if there is a short-covering rally, a retracement zone at 1.0072 to 1.0106 is likely to stop the rally.

 

Renewed demand for higher risk assets is helping to boost the AUD USD. The main trend is still down, but upside momentum could drive this market through the last main top at .9337. In addition, this market could trigger an acceleration to the upside if a downtrending Gann angle is violated. Volatility sees to be building.

 

Technical factors are helping to drive the NZD USD higher. Friday’s close over a 50% level at .7124 was the key to this morning’s strength. After several attempts to close over this level, bullish traders finally accomplished this late last week. Fresh buyers stepped in overnight and are now driving this market over another major .618 level at .7199. The charts indicate that there is plenty of room to the upside. Traders seem to be pricing in the strong possibility of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier than expected.

 

 

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