U.S. Equity Markets Called Higher; Appetite for Risk Rising
equity markets are trading higher overnight. On Friday tensions eased in Greece after
the country formally asked the European Union and the International Monetary
Fund for bailout loans. This helped drive the stock indices to their highest
levels of the year. Although the Euro is trading lower this morning, the
situation looks a little brighter as investors still feel confident in holding
higher risk assets.
Low interest rates in the U.S., decent economic reports and
better than expected earnings continue to support the rise in equities. Now
that earnings season is coming to an end and interest rates expected to remain
low for a prolonged period, the emphasis will shift toward U.S. economic reports.
Traders are going to want to see improvements in all sectors of the economy
especially housing and employment. Last week good news regarding existing home
sales and new home sales helped underpin equities.
Stocks are expected to continue to rise as long as there is
a bid under the market. Throughout this entire bull market investors have
gotten used to buying breaks. Expect this pattern to continue especially after
strong openings. Traders have been reluctant to chase the market higher.
June Treasury Bonds are called higher this morning. The main
trend is up on the daily chart, but the closing price reversal top from last
Thursday at 117â€™29 could be a signal of lower markets to follow. The charts
indicate a break to the low 116â€™00 is likely. The threat of rising interest
rates and new supply is likely to limit gains and should help contribute to the
impending weakness. It seems the only factors driving this market higher lately
have been flight to safety concerns regarding Greece. Talk that China may limit
its Treasury purchases can also develop into a bearish factor.
Fear of a possible collapse in the Greek economy and the
Euro is sending speculators into June Gold. These traders have been taking long
hedge positions against paper currencies. Gold also appears to be decoupling
from the U.S. Dollar, Gold is nearing an old top at $1170.70 which could help
to slow down upside momentum. The key to higher markets will be whether Greeceâ€™s problems escalate or the sovereign debt
issues spread to Spain, Portugal or Ireland.
June Crude Oil is trading slightly better because of
increased demand for higher risk assets. Supply and demand issues do not appear
to be a factor at all in this rally. Last weekâ€™s action confirms that the crude
oil market is still firm after it established a range between 87.59 and 81.73.
The short-term chart indicates there is room to the upside but this market will
have to clear 87.59 in order to trigger an acceleration to the upside.
The June Dollar Index is trading higher, but the Dollar is
mixed against most major currencies. The June Euro is under pressure after
Fridayâ€™s strong short-covering rally. Big hedge funds continue to remain short.
Traders expect the situation to get worse before it gets better because of the
lack of clarity regarding the proposed bailout plan. Most traders are still
saying the amount of aid Greece
is asking for is not enough.
The stronger equity markets are helping to boost demand for
higher risk while driving down the lower yielding June Japanese Yen. The weaker
Euro and an improved economic outlook are helping to support the June British
Pound. Gains could be limited because of concerns over the upcoming U.K. elections
and the possibility of a hung parliament.
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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