20:00 GMT- Apr 26 (global-view.com) We have been fooled too many times on expectations that the Greek situation could somehow be put to bed for and the markets move on. This ongoing saga has been doing serious damage to the credibility of Eurozone. On Monday the issue reared its ugly head again. The stumbling bloc today was the reluctance of German lawmakers to put the issue to bed. Some say they are capitalizing on the mess for domestic political reasons. Early Monday Greek Credit Default Swaps (CDS) moved out again and weighed on the EURUSD. Once the Greek issues is resolved, there will be Portugal Spain and Ireland to possibly deal with.
Too much is likely to be made of the Wednesday FOMC decision this week. We feel it is the current policy of the Fed not to surprise the markets. Thus no rate changes are seen and the central bank is likely to stick to its extended time period language which is translated to mean no rate changed for about six months, or three to four policy board meetings.
The EURUSD is now down on the day. The GBPUSD is up, while the EURGBP is down. The status of the Greek request to activate the EU/IMF accord seems to be in limbo. Markets are keeping a sharp eye on Greek credit default swaps.
In the GBP, traders are focused on the May 6 U.K. election. expectations for a close vote have everyone watching election headlines. Polls suggest the odds for a hung Parliament are rising. This is the worst case scenario according to some. If no party wins a clear majority, difficult decisions could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play.
Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.
The EURCHF is continues to trade a narrow range. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. CHF.Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.
The USDJPY pair is steady, and the EURJPY cross is weaker. Ratings agencies say that Japan's public finances are a worry and remain a reminder of their weak finances. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Ruling party lawmakers want to push the USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
The risk trade is off. The commodity currencies (CAD, AUD and NZD) are mixed. Bank of Canada interest rates could be hiked as early as June 1. FinMin Flaherty and BOC Governor Carney have indicated little concern about CAD strength. A strong currency eases the pressure from the central bank to tighten policy aggressively. Oil and gold are down. We favor the AUD and CAD fundamentally.
Far East equities closed higher. European bourses closed up. U.S. equities are better. The U.S. 10-yr was last 3.79%, -3 bps. Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must somehow be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls.
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday in the Far East will see Australian PPI data. In Europe , no major data are due. In North America , The U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Conference Board Confidence Survey, Treasury 2-yr auction and API data are due.
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Blandis an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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