The GBP USD finished higher on Monday in mostly range bound
trading in New York.
economic data has supported the Pound, but gains have been limited by political
uncertainty. This outlook changed overnight following the release of a new poll
showing that the main opposition Conservative Party is gaining ground. This
outcome will reduce the chances of a hung parliament and increases the chances
that a solution may be hammered out regarding the U.K. budget deficit.
Overall, the U.S. Dollar traded mixed against the major
currencies but held steady through out the day session. The slow volatility
stems from the lack of fresh U.S.
economic news and the lack of news regarding Greece and its budget woes. Forex
traders were also keeping things tight ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan
meeting and the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand and Federal Reserve meetings on
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates
unchanged at historically low levels. The market moving news will be how the
BoJ assesses the economy and inflation. Demand for higher risk assets, namely
stock market, has been pressuring the Yen lately. Deflation has also
contributed to the weakness. Traders will be looking for a rosier outlook for
the economy and hints of inflation from the BoJ policy makers.
One sticking point between the government and the BoJ has
been the topic of quantitative easing or stimulus. The government continues to
pressure the central bank for expanded stimulus. While the BoJ may pass on
expansion by limiting its purchase of Japanese Government Bonds, it may
consider lengthening the maturities to appease the government officials.At this time it doesnâ€™t look like the Bank of
Japan will do anything to encourage traders to buy the Yen so the USD JPY
uptrend is likely to continue as long as U.S. equity markets keep rising.
The NZD USD was the big gainer today. Although the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.50%, traders
feel that the RBNZ may be moving more quickly toward increasing interest rates
25 basis points sooner than previously estimated. Recent better than expected
economic reports are most likely moving the central bank closer to hiking rates
before the previously mentioned second half of the economy.
The AUD USD closed lower on Monday after an early attempt to
rally failed. Stronger demand for higher risk assets helped the Aussie
overnight, but U.S. stock
market weakness pressured this Forex pair after the New York mid-session. Traders are expressing
uncertainty about whether recent economic information supports another rate
hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia
in May. A breakout over .9337 will be a strong indication that rates will be
hiked once again. A trade through an uptrending Gann angle at .9250 could
trigger a technical sell-off.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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