stock markets finished lower as a lack of buyers triggered a profit-taking
break. Stocks were trading better earlier in the session due to increased
appetite for risk. Trading was light and volume low with the markets trading
rangebound for most of the day. Last weekâ€™s gains may have been too much, too
fast and may have kept investors on the sidelines.
The NASDAQ was under pressure throughout the day with the
S&P 500 barely holding on to gains and the Dow trading only.25% higher.
This divergence was indicative of short-term topping action which proved to be
true into the close. Todayâ€™s closing price reversal top in the June E-mini
S&P 500 indicates a short-term break is likely. This may be necessary to
attract new buyers.
June Treasury Bonds surged early in the trading session
after Fridayâ€™s bearish session. Investors showed strong demand for bonds on
Monday ahead of this weekâ€™s auction of $11 billion in new five-year,
Last week, a flight to safety rally helped drive yields
lower and bond prices higher until Friday when Greece announced plans to use the
loan money proposed by the European Central Bank and the International Monetary
Fund earlier in the month.
Greater demand for this weekâ€™s TIPS auction should keep
pressure on yields. Strong economic data may help to limit gains.
The stronger Dollar and weaker Euro helped to hold June
Crude Oil and June Gold in a range. Gold continued to remain firm because of investors
hedging against a collapse in the Euro. Supply/Demand fundamentals kept a lid
on crude oil prices. By the end of the day a general lack of demand for higher
risk helped turn both of these markets negative.
Overall, the U.S. Dollar traded mixed against the major
currencies but held steady through out the day session. The slow volatility
stems from the lack of fresh U.S.
economic news and the lack of news regarding Greece and its budget woes. Forex
traders were also keeping things tight ahead of the upcoming Bank of Japan
meeting and the Reserve Bank of New
Zealand and Federal Reserve meetings on
The June British Pound finished higher on Monday in mostly
range bound trading in New York.
economic data has supported the Pound, but gains have been limited by political
uncertainty. This outlook changed overnight following the release of a new poll
showing that the main opposition Conservative Party is gaining ground. This
outcome will reduce the chances of a hung parliament and increases the chances
that a solution may be hammered out regarding the U.K. budget deficit.
The Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates
unchanged at historically low levels. The market moving news will be how the
BoJ assesses the economy and inflation. Demand for higher risk assets, namely
stock market, has been pressuring the Yen lately. Deflation has also
contributed to the weakness. Traders will be looking for a rosier outlook for
the economy and hints of inflation from the BoJ policy makers.
One sticking point between the government and the BoJ has
been the topic of quantitative easing or stimulus. The government continues to
pressure the central bank for expanded stimulus. While the BoJ may pass on
expansion by limiting its purchase of Japanese Government Bonds, it may
consider lengthening the maturities to appease the government officials.At this time it doesnâ€™t look like the Bank of
Japan will do anything to encourage traders to buy the June Japanese Yen so the
uptrend is likely to continue as long as U.S. equity markets keep rising.
Forex Trading News
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Tue 17 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Wed 18 July 2018 AA 08:30 GB- CPI A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony Thu 19 July 2018 AA 1:30 AU- Employment AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 20 Jun 2018 A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales
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