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Tuesday April 27, 2010 - 10:02:05 GMT
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European Market Update: Risk aversion gains the upper hand as Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows; European peripherals shifting towards Germany's attitude

Tuesday, April 27, 2010 5:45:06 AM

 European Market Update: Risk aversion gains the upper hand as Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows; European peripherals shifting towards Germany's attitude

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (JP) Japan Apr Small Business Confidence: 46.8 v 45.8 prior
- (PH) Philippines Mar Budget (PHP): -63.9B v -33.2 prior
- (SZ) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.708 v 1.201 prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence: 17.9 v 15.6e; Business Confidence: 1.0 v -4.0 prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.5%e
- (GE) Germany May GFK Consumer Confidence: 3.8 v 3.2e
- (GE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: 1.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.2%e
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: -37 v -33e
- (SW) Sweden Mar PPI M/M: -1.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.4%e
- (IT) Italy Apr Consumer Confidence: 107.9 v 106.3e
- (NV) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence: -1.4 v -3.1 prior
- (TT) Taiwan Mar Leading Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.6% prior; Coincidence Index M/M: % v 1.1% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD): -38.9B v -27.8B; Exports Y/Y: 32.1% v 25.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 39.8% v 27.9%e
- (UK) Mar BBA Loans for House Purchase: 34.9K v 38Ke

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/C
OMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- Equities: Europe has kicked into high gear in regards to Q1 earnings season. Despite the broadly supportive corporate figures, macro level concerns emanating from
China have continued to negatively pressure trading ranges. Declines in Chinese listed property and construction names continue to serve as a bellwether for fears of new, tightening related fiscal and monetary policy action from the PBOC. In European earnings, results from financials were initially greeted with positive enthusiasm. Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] reported expectation defeating figures on the back of solid outperformance in its investment banking arm (CIB). Declines in core tier 1, and tier 1 capital ratios served as a foreshadowing of what became a drubbing of analyst's questions regarding future capital positions, exposure to Greece and Goldman Sachs related issues. Lloyds [LLOY.UK] continued the bullish financial call by confirming a slowdown in loan losses, and announced that the firm now expects to be profitable in Q1, H1 and FY10. Other financial sector earnings, from Swedbank [SWEDA.SW], represented first positive glimpses into earnings for those exposed to the Baltic's. Earnings from BP [BP.UK] beat analyst expectations, and showed noticeable q/q improvement in refining operations. BP maintained its cautious tone on production and refining exposure through 2010. Despite the earnings support, markets quickly adopted a heavy tone. Financials and basic resources, as a reaction to concerns from Asia, led the downward rotation. As shares of Deutsche Bank rolled over through the conference call, sentiment turned correspondingly sour across the Greek-exposed financial markets. Trading volumes have been sharply ahead of moving averages, supported by interest in earnings and financial related plays.

- Individual equities: Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE]: Reports Q1 Net €1.8B v €1.3Be, Rev €9 v €7.9Be. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK]: Provides Trading Update: Group has returned to profitability, on a combined businesses basis, in Q1. || BP [BP.UK]: Reports Q1 Net $6.08B v $4.8Be (unclear if comp), R$74.4B v $59.1Be. || Imperial Tobacco [IMT.UK]: Reports H1 Net £689M v £636Me, Rev £13.4B v £12.4B y/y. || Prudential [PRU.UK]: Largest shareholder Capital Group (11.1% stake) held talks with other companies to see if they were interested in bidding for Prudential - London Times. || KPN [KPN.NV]: Reports Q1 Net profit €449M v €390Me, Rev €3.3B v €3.3Be; Reiterates FY10 and FY11 guidance. || SwedBank [SWEDA.SW]: Reports Q1 Net Profit SEK536M v loss SEK1.1Be, Op profit SEK1.02B v SEK3.2Be, Net interest income SEK4.02B v SEK4.5Be.|| Daimler [DAI.GE]: Confirms prelim Q1 figures; Q1 EBIT €1.2B v €560Me, Rev €21.2B v €20Be. ||

- Speakers: ECB's Papademos commented that fiscal imbalances could undermine public trust.
Greece must address the 'root causes' of its problems and countries must strictly adhere to the Maastrict Stability pact. The ECB member noted that fiscal imbalances were sizable, broad-based and likely to last for some time and expressed concern that such imbalances could undermine economic growth. In some cases of fiscal programs were not based on realistic assumptions and added that fiscal strategies ought be underpinned by more road maps showing where expenditure will be cut specifically. He reiterated the central bank view that 2010 inflation would remain moderate and was well anchored. In a Q&A session at the EU Parliament, Papademos stated that one cannot exclude more bank loan losses and write downs and that deleveraging process was continuing in the Eurozone. H edid not expect a second round for crisis as fiscal consolidation did not necessarily mean adverse effects as the temporary effects of fiscal consolidation would be offset by permanent improvements. On Greece, he noted that IMF role on Greece was a workable solution and would not have difficulties in achieving common Greek position. Euro Zone emphasis was on crisis prevention and that the Greece debt crisis was a wake up call for other high debt States *** Irish Debt Agency (NTMA) Chief commented that it was continuing to address fiscal problems and noted that over 50% of 2010 funding had been completed with €12B of €20B in funding already raised. The agency might seek to sell 30-yr bonds but it was not on current horizon. Irish Finance Ministry was delivering on budget cuts *** China Commerce Min (MOFCOM) reiterated that 2010 foreign trade faced many uncertainties. China would gradually stabilize import support policiesand push other countries to lift export restrictions. The Ministry reiterated that fluctuations in major currencies were a risk to Chinese companies.It expressed concern over potential for rising global sovereign debt risks and saw asset bubble risks rising in emerging markets *** ECB's Trichet commented in a WSJ interview that discussion between Greece, IMF and EU were seen being completed "quickly" *** Greece PM Papandreou commented the aid mechanism provided a 'safe harbor'and that the goal was to be relieved of supervision and this would come once economy was back in order. He added that supervision would not end with violence *** Greece Central Bank's Provopoulos stated that 2010 GDP outlook was likely worse that -2% and that Greece was in a deep crisis . He saw 2010 unemployment around 11% and that the Greek crisis would require a multiyear approach and credibility will depend on the implementation of its austerity measures. He labeled the activation of EU/IMF aid package as a positive step ***

- Currencies/Fixed Income: The EUR/USD consolidating between the 1.33 to 1.34 range with dealers continue to focus on the European peripheral situation, which continues to hamper any upside potential in the pair. The attention shifting towards
Germany's attitude, especially with state elections looming on May 9th as markets await structure of the rescue deal for Greece. China experienced a difficult session as fears over the real estate market weighed on sentiment and the Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows just above 2,900. The JPY was mildly firmer on some risk aversion flows but dealers believing that the session gains might be used as a selling opportunity ahead of a flurry of investment trust launches, which are coming to the market on Wednesday. Japanese Minister Haraguchi noted that Japanese Post Bank twould invest ¥10T into foreign assets. With Golden Week looming the prospect of sub 90 reading appears to be fading from the charts.

***Notes/Observations:
-
Spain unemployment officially hits 20% with 4.61M unemployed
- China Shanghai hit 6-month lows on Talk of capital controls on property developers
- European peripherals remain elevated as some EU members stress further evidence of concrete austerity measures from
Greece before committing to release of funds.
-
Portugal's credit default swaps worse than for Lebanon and Guatemala.
- Deutsche bank beats on Net but capital ratio not improving; Lloyds makes money in Q1
- Corporate earnings season in full bloom but traders note that market would probably wait FOMC and any adjustment in its language

***Looking Ahead***
- ECB's Trichet in Chicago
- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 112.3 prior; Construction Costs M/M: No est v 0.5% prior
- 7:30 ECB's Orphanides
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chaine Store Sales
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store Sales
- 9:00 (US) Feb S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 Y/Y: 1.3%e v -0.7% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 145.32 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing index: No est v 6 prior
- 10:00 (US) Apr Consumer Confidence: 54.0e v 52.5 prior
- 10:00 Fed's Bernanke speaks on fiscal reform
- 10:15 ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell in Paris
- 12:30 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner
- 13:00 (FR) France Mar Net Change Jobseekers: 4.0e v 3.3 prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.67M prior
- 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $44B in 2-year Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Shop Center sales Y/Y: No est v 25.9% prior
- 15:30 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney

 

 

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