European Market Update: Risk aversion gains the upper hand as Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows; European peripherals shifting towards Germany's attitude
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
European Market Update: Risk aversion gains the upper hand as Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows; European peripherals shifting towards Germany's attitude
*** ECONOMIC DATA *** - (JP) Japan Apr Small Business Confidence: 46.8 v 45.8 prior - (PH) Philippines Mar Budget (PHP): -63.9B v -33.2 prior - (SZ) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.708 v 1.201 prior - (FI) Finland Apr Consumer Confidence: 17.9 v 15.6e; Business Confidence: 1.0 v -4.0 prior - (FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.5%e - (GE) Germany May GFK Consumer Confidence: 3.8 v 3.2e - (GE) Germany Mar Import Price Index M/M: 1.7% v 1.1%e; Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.2%e - (FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: -37 v -33e - (SW) Sweden Mar PPI M/M: -1.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.7% v -0.4%e - (IT) Italy Apr Consumer Confidence: 107.9 v 106.3e - (NV) Netherlands Apr Producer Confidence: -1.4 v -3.1 prior - (TT) Taiwan Mar Leading Index M/M: 0.3% v 0.6% prior; Coincidence Index M/M: % v 1.1% prior - (HK) Hong Kong Mar Trade Balance (HKD): -38.9B v -27.8B; Exports Y/Y: 32.1% v 25.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 39.8% v 27.9%e - (UK) Mar BBA Loans for House Purchase: 34.9K v 38Ke
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM *** - Equities: Europe has kicked into high gear in regards to Q1 earnings season. Despite the broadly supportive corporate figures, macro level concerns emanating from China have continued to negatively pressure trading ranges. Declines in Chinese listed property and construction names continue to serve as a bellwether for fears of new, tightening related fiscal and monetary policy action from the PBOC. In European earnings, results from financials were initially greeted with positive enthusiasm. Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] reported expectation defeating figures on the back of solid outperformance in its investment banking arm (CIB). Declines in core tier 1, and tier 1 capital ratios served as a foreshadowing of what became a drubbing of analyst's questions regarding future capital positions, exposure to Greece and Goldman Sachs related issues. Lloyds [LLOY.UK] continued the bullish financial call by confirming a slowdown in loan losses, and announced that the firm now expects to be profitable in Q1, H1 and FY10. Other financial sector earnings, from Swedbank [SWEDA.SW], represented first positive glimpses into earnings for those exposed to the Baltic's. Earnings from BP [BP.UK] beat analyst expectations, and showed noticeable q/q improvement in refining operations. BP maintained its cautious tone on production and refining exposure through 2010. Despite the earnings support, markets quickly adopted a heavy tone. Financials and basic resources, as a reaction to concerns from Asia, led the downward rotation. As shares of Deutsche Bank rolled over through the conference call, sentiment turned correspondingly sour across the Greek-exposed financial markets. Trading volumes have been sharply ahead of moving averages, supported by interest in earnings and financial related plays.
- Individual equities: Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE]: Reports Q1 Net â‚¬1.8B v â‚¬1.3Be, Rev â‚¬9 v â‚¬7.9Be. || Lloyds [LLOY.UK]: Provides Trading Update: Group has returned to profitability, on a combined businesses basis, in Q1. || BP [BP.UK]: Reports Q1 Net $6.08B v $4.8Be (unclear if comp), R$74.4B v $59.1Be. || Imperial Tobacco [IMT.UK]: Reports H1 Net Â£689M v Â£636Me, Rev Â£13.4B v Â£12.4B y/y. || Prudential [PRU.UK]: Largest shareholder Capital Group (11.1% stake) held talks with other companies to see if they were interested in bidding for Prudential - London Times. || KPN [KPN.NV]: Reports Q1 Net profit â‚¬449M v â‚¬390Me, Rev â‚¬3.3B v â‚¬3.3Be; Reiterates FY10 and FY11 guidance. || SwedBank [SWEDA.SW]: Reports Q1 Net Profit SEK536M v loss SEK1.1Be, Op profit SEK1.02B v SEK3.2Be, Net interest income SEK4.02B v SEK4.5Be.|| Daimler [DAI.GE]: Confirms prelim Q1 figures; Q1 EBIT â‚¬1.2B v â‚¬560Me, Rev â‚¬21.2B v â‚¬20Be. ||
- Speakers: ECB's Papademos commented that fiscal imbalances could undermine public trust. Greece must address the 'root causes' of its problems and countries must strictly adhere to the Maastrict Stability pact. The ECB member noted that fiscal imbalances were sizable, broad-based and likely to last for some time and expressed concern that such imbalances could undermine economic growth. In some cases of fiscal programs were not based on realistic assumptions and added that fiscal strategies ought be underpinned by more road maps showing where expenditure will be cut specifically. He reiterated the central bank view that 2010 inflation would remain moderate and was well anchored. In a Q&A session at the EU Parliament, Papademos stated that one cannot exclude more bank loan losses and write downs and that deleveraging process was continuing in the Eurozone. H edid not expect a second round for crisis as fiscal consolidation did not necessarily mean adverse effects as the temporary effects of fiscal consolidation would be offset by permanent improvements. On Greece, he noted that IMF role on Greece was a workable solution and would not have difficulties in achieving common Greek position. Euro Zone emphasis was on crisis prevention and that the Greece debt crisis was a wake up call for other high debt States *** Irish Debt Agency (NTMA) Chief commented that it was continuing to address fiscal problems and noted that over 50% of 2010 funding had been completed with â‚¬12B of â‚¬20B in funding already raised. The agency might seek to sell 30-yr bonds but it was not on current horizon. Irish Finance Ministry was delivering on budget cuts *** China Commerce Min (MOFCOM) reiterated that 2010 foreign trade faced many uncertainties. China would gradually stabilize import support policiesand push other countries to lift export restrictions. The Ministry reiterated that fluctuations in major currencies were a risk to Chinese companies.It expressed concern over potential for rising global sovereign debt risks and saw asset bubble risks rising in emerging markets *** ECB's Trichet commented in a WSJ interview that discussion between Greece, IMF and EU were seen being completed "quickly" *** Greece PM Papandreou commented the aid mechanism provided a 'safe harbor'and that the goal was to be relieved of supervision and this would come once economy was back in order. He added that supervision would not end with violence *** Greece Central Bank's Provopoulos stated that 2010 GDP outlook was likely worse that -2% and that Greece was in a deep crisis . He saw 2010 unemployment around 11% and that the Greek crisis would require a multiyear approach and credibility will depend on the implementation of its austerity measures. He labeled the activation of EU/IMF aid package as a positive step ***
- Currencies/Fixed Income: The EUR/USD consolidating between the 1.33 to 1.34 range with dealers continue to focus on the European peripheral situation, which continues to hamper any upside potential in the pair. The attention shifting towards Germany's attitude, especially with state elections looming on May 9th as markets await structure of the rescue deal for Greece. China experienced a difficult session as fears over the real estate market weighed on sentiment and the Shanghai Composite closed at six months lows just above 2,900. The JPY was mildly firmer on some risk aversion flows but dealers believing that the session gains might be used as a selling opportunity ahead of a flurry of investment trust launches, which are coming to the market on Wednesday. Japanese Minister Haraguchi noted that Japanese Post Bank twould invest Â¥10T into foreign assets. With Golden Week looming the prospect of sub 90 reading appears to be fading from the charts.
***Notes/Observations: - Spain unemployment officially hits 20% with 4.61M unemployed - China Shanghai hit 6-month lows on Talk of capital controls on property developers - European peripherals remain elevated as some EU members stress further evidence of concrete austerity measures from Greece before committing to release of funds. - Portugal's credit default swaps worse than for Lebanon and Guatemala. - Deutsche bank beats on Net but capital ratio not improving; Lloyds makes money in Q1 - Corporate earnings season in full bloom but traders note that market would probably wait FOMC and any adjustment in its language
***Looking Ahead*** - ECB's Trichet in Chicago - 7:00 (BR) Brazil Apr FGV Consumer Confidence: No est v 112.3 prior; Construction Costs M/M: No est v 0.5% prior - 7:30 ECB's Orphanides - 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chaine Store Sales - 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Chain Store Sales - 9:00 (US) Feb S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 Y/Y: 1.3%e v -0.7% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 145.32 prior - 10:00 (US) Apr Richmond Fed Manufacturing index: No est v 6 prior - 10:00 (US) Apr Consumer Confidence: 54.0e v 52.5 prior - 10:00 Fed's Bernanke speaks on fiscal reform - 10:15 ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell in Paris - 12:30 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner - 13:00 (FR) France Mar Net Change Jobseekers: 4.0e v 3.3 prior; Total Jobseekers: No est v 2.67M prior - 13:00 (US) US Treasury to sell $44B in 2-year Notes - 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Shop Center sales Y/Y: No est v 25.9% prior - 15:30 (CA) Bank of Canada's Carney
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 23 July 2018 A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales Tue 24 July 2018 AFlash PMIs Wed 25 July 2018 A 08:00 DE- IFO Survey A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 26 July 2018 AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Durable Goods Fri 27 July 2018 AA 12:30 US- GDP A 14:00 US- Final University of Michigan
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Global-View Affiliate Program
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.
Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.
Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.