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Tuesday April 27, 2010 - 20:19:46 GMT
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Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Greek Tragedy

The Daily Forex View





Greek Tragedy

20:00 GMT- Apr 27 (global-view.com) Our view that there had been a mindset change regarding the Greek debt situation underway today proved to be accurate. Many had been betting that there would be a clean bailout from the EU and IMF with most, including us, assuming funds would be eventually coming after a lot of political posturing. It appears now that a debt restructuring (haircut) for existing bondholders will have to be priced into prices on existing bonds. The new worry is that Greece not only has to finance its short-term needs but will also have to deal with future structural deficit. This is going to be a problem. There are also doubts about getting approval from the legislatures of all EU members. There were new reports that Dutch lawmakers have questions similar to Germany. We feel the EZ does not oppose a weaker EUR but would like to see the pace of its decline contained.


Too much may be made of the Wednesday FOMC decision tomorrow. We feel it is the current policy of the Fed not to surprise the markets. Thus no rate changes are seen and the central bank is likely to stick to its extended time period language which is translated to mean no rate changed for about six months, or three to four policy board meetings. We feel that Bernanke will signal a change it its extended period language before the central bank makes a change.


CHARTS: Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads



































































Forex EUR vs. GBP vs. 20:06
EUR 1.3171 -197 JPY 122.74 -295 JPY 142.08 -323
GBP 1.5246 -209 GBP 86.39 -11 CHF 165.83 -11
CHF 1.0877 140 CHF 1.4326 -27 CHF vs.
JPY 93.19 -83 JPY 85.68 -189


The EURUSD is now down on the day. The GBPUSD is lower, while the EURGBP is steady. The Greek bailout plan continues to evolve and might be deteriorating. All markets have been keeping a sharp eye on the Greek credit default swaps.


In the GBP, traders are focused on the May 6 U.K. election. expectations for a close vote have everyone watching election headlines. Polls suggest the odds for a hung Parliament are rising. This is the worst case scenario according to traders. If no party wins a clear majority, difficult decisions could be deferred. This uncertainty has the GBP in play.


Our bias for the EURUSD and GBPUSD remains cautiously bearish. The outlook for the EURGBP is a toss-up.


The EURCHF is continues to trade a range. SNB intervention tactics now see the central bank continuously in the markets supporting the EUR vs. CHF.Weakness of the EUR vs. the CHF is a bad omen for the EUR.


The USDJPY pair is easier, and the EURJPY cross is weaker. Ratings agencies say that Japan's public finances are a worry and remain a reminder of their weak finances. Some note that virtually all JGB bonds are owned by the citizens of Japan. The Hatoyama government wants a lower exchange rate and is pressuring the BOJ to promote growth. Ruling party lawmakers want to push the USDJPY to 120 to combat deflation. Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).


COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies



Click on Chart to Enlarge













































Commodity 20:06
CAD 1.0172 162 AUD 0.9142 -121 Gold 1170 17.90
CNY 6.8266 -10 NZD 0.7101 -119 WTI 82.10 -1.91


.....


EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES




































































Equities 20:06
NIK 11213 47 DAX 6160 -173 DJIA 11014 -202
HSI 21262 -325 FTSE 5604 -150 S&P 1186 -27
SSEC 2908 -52 SMI 6667 0 NAS 2472 -53
ASX 4880 -2 TSE 12281 41


CALENDAR


UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday in the Far East will see quarterly Australian CPI data. In Europe , no major data are due. In North America, U.S. mortgage statistics will be followed by weekly energy inventory data. Early afternoon will see 5-yr note auction. The FOMC decision is due at 18:15 GMT. No rate changes are expected.


See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.







John M. Blandis an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.




 

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John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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