Monday April 26, 2004 - 20:33:44 GMT
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As of April 26, 2004
The dollar traded lower after an uneventful response from the weekend’s G-7 meeting. After initially posting new 2004 highs against the euro (1.1760) and Swiss franc (1.3225), traders witnessed some frantic unwinding of long dollar positions once the German IFO checked in at a better than expected level. In addition, USD/JPY failed to “get legs” once above the 109 handle and eventually dripped all the way down to 108.35. So as the market waits for tomorrow’s important US Consumer Confidence figure, some market participants are starting to think that a Fed rate hike has already been factored in to the dollar’s rise. And furthermore, t the next few weeks should make for a stronger euro/ stronger high yielding currencies. We will keep a close eye on tomorrow’s number keeping in mind that the dollar’s monthly highs may have already been set.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING We see important support now in EUR/USD at 1.1798and 1.1760 that must hold in order for last week’s 1.1935 highs to be threatened. There is light resistance at today’s high (1.1882) as well as the psychological 1.1900.
GAIN AN EDGE We will continue to try and be long EUR/USD (1.18-1.1760) with a 1.1750 stop and 1.20 objective.
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