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Forexpros Daily Analysis - 28/04/2010 ForexPros Daily Analysis April 28,
Fundamental Analysis: Initial Jobless
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Initial
Jobless Claims. It is a seasonally adjusted measure of the number of people who
file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This
data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job
market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being
hired. On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile. Usually, a move of at
least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth. A
higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD,
while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the
USD. Analysts predict a future reading of 440.00K.
As expected, the scenario we slightly preferred is the
one which happened, which we said yesterday that it includes the price to start
drifting away from it, and break short term support 1.3337. The price broke the
specified support in yesterdayâ€™s report 1.3337, and successfully reached the
first suggested target 1.3204, and it came sort of close to the second suggested
target 1.3113. Thus, there is no change on the technical outlook , we still
believe that this downtrend is capable of breaking the 1.30 landmark, and go
into the 1.20s for the first time in a year. But, after yesterdayâ€™s plunge we
could see a rising correction, which should stay inside the channel drawn on the
attached chart. That is why we will focus on short term levels for today,
waiting for one of them to give us the direction for the next several hours.
Short term support is at the nearby 1.3188, and breaking it would indicate a
drop to 1.3113 first, then maybe we will see 1.3050. The resistance is at
1.3247, and breaking it would indicate we are already in a rising correction for
yesterdayâ€™s drop, with the ideal target at 1.3310, and the maximum target at the
channelâ€™s top 1.3366. We see that it is very hard for the Euro to decisively
break this resistance.
â€˘ 1.3188: the rising trend line
from yesterdayâ€™s bottom on intraday charts.
â€˘ 1.3113: Mar 30th 2009 low.
1.3050: Apr 20th 2009 high.
â€˘ 1.3247: Fibonacci
38.2% for the last drop from 1.3414.
â€˘ 1.3310: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last
drop from 1.3414.
â€˘ 1.3366: the top of the falling channel on hourly
The Dollar-Yen continued
to retreat from this weekâ€™s top 94.34 back to 93.72, breaking the important
resistance which was broken on Friday 93.62, and dropping to 92.80, thatâ€™s 24
pips before our suggested target for this break. After rising back above 93, the
resistance 93.33 showed some strength, stopping the price from going up 3 times.
But there are more important levels to focus o. The support is at 93.01,
breaking it means a continuation of the drop, and looking for targets below
92.80, we see the test of the rising trend line from 88.12 as the most notable
target for this break. We have modified this trend line, and it is currently
running at 92.29. A break here will immediately target 91.58. As for the
resistance it is at 93.75, and breaking it would be a sort of surprise, which
could spark a sharp climb to 95.05 & 95.90.
93.01: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.
â€˘ 92.29: the rising trend line
from 88.12 on hourly chart, after it has been modified.
â€˘ 91.58: Apr 19th
â€˘ 93.75: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short
â€˘ 95.05: Aug 24th high.
â€˘ 95.90: Jul 29th
---Forex Trading Analysis written by Munther Marji for
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