User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday April 28, 2010 - 13:44:25 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Brazil is loved, but how much is priced into that perception?

Key News
•    An auction of land in Beijing was cancelled after bidding exceeded a price ceiling set for the lot as the Chinese government expands efforts to rein in the nation’s property market. (Bloomberg)

“It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.” —Gordon Gekko, Wall Street

FX Trading – Brazil is loved, but how much is priced into that perception?

Gotta love that quote: “…simply transferred from one perception to another.”  It really does sum it up well.  We know Blue Horse Shoe loved Anacot Steel…we know gold bugs love gold…we know commodities bulls love all things commodities…and we know Morgan Stanley loves Brazil…

“The [Brazilian] economy is firing on all cylinders. Recent activity data have been strong, and even better than expected - including numbers such as February industrial production (up 18.4%Y) and retail sales (up 12.3%Y). Partial proxy indicators for March look upbeat. Ranging from energy consumption and car production, all the way to paperboard sales and heavy vehicles traffic in main roads, all figures were once again sequentially positive in March (month-on-month, seasonally adjusted), with most year-on-year comparisons firmly in double-digit territory. For their part, demand drivers are supportive - including credit conditions, labor markets and sentiment surveys among consumers as well as businesspeople.”

… but there are some things we don’t know.

How much of this good news is already in the price of Brazil and all things commodities to which Brazil is a poster child…the Brazilian-USD pair has not yet made it back to its old credit-crunch high…

Brazilian Real-USD Weekly: [Chart not available in text format.]

Brazilian real/US$ and the Brazilian stock market are joined at the hip; it is about money flow…and coincidently the Brazilian stock market got whacked yesterday (along with the US), breaking below its daily trend line going all the way back to March 2009: [Chart not available in text format.]

In a world where a couple of interesting things are happening:  1) Europe is trying to stave off risk that could lead to major contagion, and 2) China seems serious about reining in some of its tower real estate through credit controls, it might mean the demand expectations for all things commodities is in for some dampening. That has been our thinking, and it’s why we think the commodity currencies are at least fairly valued, if not overvalued against the buck.

But we could look at this from another direction: Given the huge run in stocks, the lagging CRB index tells us commodities are relatively undervalued. After all, if stocks are right about a boom in global demand, more commodities demand would follow...

CRB Index versus World Stock Index Daily:  There is a huge divergence here? Brazilian Real-USD Weekly: [Chart not available in text format.]

…and if more commodities demand follows then Morgan’s love for Brazil will likely be rewarded.

What’s your perception?  

I think Gordon Gekko nailed it.  In a world where there is a continuous feedback loop between prices and fundamentals, and fundamentals are fleeting, it has to be about money transferring from one perception to another.     

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

It Comes Down to Money Flow.

Is there a day when all the “at-risk” Eurozone members will declare group default?


Is there a day when traders will in unison decide Europe will be the laggard for years to come?

Maybe. But it’ll be nearly impossible to pinpoint that day until it is well past us.

Is there a day when the euro will suddenly cease to exist?

Tough to say. But in all likelihood that day isn’t coming before the day the value of the euro reaches par with the US dollar. That day is coming fast.

Yeah, yeah, yeah – nothing goes straight up, or straight down ... blah, blah, blah. But as steady and paced as we think this euro move to US dollar parity will be, things like this can sneak up on you. It’s great if you can time the pullbacks perfectly and enter then. And it almost hurts when you miss a big daily, or weekly, move.

But the fact is, when you’re playing for a major, longer-term move like this it makes sense to be in the market. Of course, you don’t want to be blind about it. Even in lasting moves, there are time to be careful and times to be gutsy. And you can do this in the longer-term ... or the shorter-term, depending on your appetite for risk and your investing approach.

Don’t waste anymore time.

TICK ... TOCK ... TICK ... TOCK ...

(Here’s our website if you need us: 


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105