stock markets are trading higher ahead of the opening after hitting oversold
levels and bottoming in Asia. Traders took the
markets lower overnight in a follow-through break following Tuesdayâ€™s sell-off,
but after reassessing the financial situation in Greece and the general lack of
fresh sellers, turned the markets around on bottom-picking and short-covering.
Traders are still cautious about being long at current
levels due to value issues and worries that the financial crisis in Europe will escalate further. Nonetheless, investors feel
that yesterdayâ€™s break may have been overdone to the downside and too much of a
knee-jerk reaction to the news of the S&P downgrade of Greece and
Portugalâ€™s credit ratings. This type of reaction usually generates a sizeable
retracement. If traders still feel that they want to take risk off the table,
then renewed selling pressure is likely to occur after a 50% rebound of
Technically, the June E-mini S&P 500 turned the main
trend down on the daily chart on Tuesday signaling the start of a decline which
could take this market to a major 50% level at 1134.00.
markets broke sharply lower shortly before the mid-session after the S&P
Corp. cuts its debt ratings for Greece
The move signaled that the situation in Euro is worsening, thereby slashing
demand for higher risk assets.
June Treasury Bonds and Treasury Notes soared to the upside on
Wednesday following the stock market plunge. Yields fell hard and fast as
traders bought up Treasuries in a flight to safety rally. The action in the
T-Bonds was fast and furious. Upside momentum was strong enough to pierce a key
.618 retracement price at 118â€™06 as well as an old top at 118â€™12.
Overnight, T-Bonds are breaking as tensions eased in the
stock market. Traders are taking profits after Wednesdayâ€™s huge rally and
taking a few steps back to reassess the weakness in the stock market and the
credit woes in Europe.
The weaker Dollar and stronger Euro are helping to support
June Gold and June Crude Oil this morning. Gold is benefiting from both a weak
Dollar and fears of a collapse of the Euro. Traders are talking long hedge
positions in gold as protection against the possible demise in the Euro. The
charts indicate that once the $1170.70 barrier is penetrated that $1200 gold
may not be far behind.
June Crude Oil plunged sharply lower on Wednesday on the
prospect of lower energy prices due to the lack of demand for higher yielding
assets. Traders are also beginning to believe that a collapse in the Euro Zone
economy will lead to a drop in demand for crude oil. Profit-taking and a
reassessment of the financial crisis in Greece is helping to support crude
oil prices this morning.
The U.S. Dollar is giving back some of its gains overnight.
The rebound in the Euro and other commodity-linked assets is helping to weaken
the Greenback. Wednesdayâ€™s hard break in the Euro may be attracting some bottom
pickers but most traders still believe the Euro will remain soft.
Stronger equity markets and renewed demand for higher
yielding assets is helping to support the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar
and Canadian Dollar. In addition, traders are buying the Japanese Yen in
renewed interest in the carry trade.
Today could be a volatile trading session due to the
developing situation in Greece
and the Fedâ€™s FOMC meeting.
The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but
traders will be focusing on the language in the policy statement. Traders will
be watching to see if the Fed changes its dovish tone toward interest rates
particularly its use of the phrase â€śextended periodâ€ť when it talks about how
long interest rates are expected to remain low.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
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Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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