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Wednesday April 28, 2010 - 17:58:45 GMT
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Stock Traders Shrug off Spain Downgrade; Firm before FOMC Meeting

U.S. equity markets bent a little bit but did not break after the Euro tumbled following an S&P Corp. downgrade of Spain’s debt. Although investors are a little more cautious about holding long positions at current levels, they don’t seem as worried about the worsening situation in the Europe as they did on Tuesday. This could be because they feel a solution is close due to the on-going dialogue between Greece and the EU/IMF.

Traders may be holding the market up ahead of the Fed’s FOMC announcement this afternoon. Although this policy statement is not expected to reveal any surprises, traders seem to be standing aside today which could also be the reason for the muted reaction from the Spain downgrade news.

June Treasury Bonds are trading lower. Today’s move is inside yesterday’s wide range meaning that traders are a little uncertain about how to play the Euro situation. Investors definitely don’t feel as worried about risk as they were on Tuesday.

Today’s Fed report could move the Bonds in a big way to the downside. Traders will be watching the language of the report to see if there is a hint of an interest rate hike. If the language turns out to be more hawkish then expected, look for T-Bonds to plunge.

June Gold is trading higher despite the stronger Dollar. Investors are buying gold on speculation of the demise of the Euro. Buyers are clearly taking hedge protection against paper money in case the European debt problems begin to spread to the U.K. and Japan.

June Crude Oil traded weaker this morning after the Euro broke on the Spain downgrade. Bearish traders believe the Greek debt problems will slow down growth in the Euro Zone and consequently hurt demand for energy products. The inability to crash the Euro today and optimism that a solution will be found regarding Greece, helped turn crude oil to the upside. Watch for a short-covering rally if the Euro moves higher into the close.

After a higher New York opening the Euro reversed its course after the S&P Corp. downgraded Spain to AA status. Although the Euro reached a new low for the year, the selling pressure was not as intense as Tuesday’s. This could be because traders had expected it.

Today’s action seems to be indicating that traders have faith that a resolution between Greece and the EU/IMF will be reached soon. This could be the reason for less aggressive trading on the short-side. In fact, the way the market is trading going into the mid-session, it looks as if bottom-pickers are stepping in and may send the Euro higher before the end of the day.

Bearish traders should be cautious at current levels so they don’t get caught in a closing price reversal bottom formation. There are plenty of shorts still in the game, but it isn’t going to take much to encourage the weaker shorts to cover fresh losing positions.

It looks as if traders are going to back away from aggressively shorting the Euro as long as the EU/IMF is still working out the details of the bailout. If anything should happen during the negotiations and talks were called off, then look for the Euro to plunge. As long as the bailout dialogue is open, it appears as if traders have priced in the worse case scenario for the time being.

Look for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at current historically low levels. Traders should pay attention to the language of the policy statement. Although the Fed is expected to say that rates will remain low for “an extended period” some believe they may soften the tone a bit. This slight shift in language could help strengthen the Dollar into the close.

The Fed is also expected to say that unemployment and housing remain a concern as well as the lack of bank lending. Also look for the FOMC policy statement to say that the economy is expanding and that inflation is subdued.


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

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