Thursday April 29, 2010 - 04:03:02 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
Morning Briefing : 29-Apr-2010 - 0401 GMT
The US Equities closed up yesterday. The Dow (11045.27) was up 0.48% and the Nasdaq (2471.73) was flat. The Dow is trading just below the crucial region of 11100-200 and a weekly close below 11100 may be bearish for the Dow going forward.
The Asian Equities are mixed today. The Shanghai (2907.16) is up 0.24% and the Hang Seng (20876.44) is down 0.35%. Japan is closed today on account of Emperor's Birth Day / Showa Day. In India, the Sensex (17380.08) and the Nifty (5215.55) were down about 1.75% yesterday. The Sensex and the Nifty are near important Support levels of 17300 and 5200 respectively. While 17300 holds, the Sensex may trade in the region of 17300-550 for the next couple of days. However, a strong break below 17300 may even see it going down towards 16500 in the coming weeks.
In Australia, the All Ordinaries (4821.90) is down 0.67% today.
In line with the modicum of stabilisation in stocks and currencies overnight, Crude (83.12) has rallied a bit from yesterday's low near 81.29 while Gold (1166) has come off a bit from yesterday's high near 1175.30. A dip to 1145 may we well worth buying.
Although the Euro (1.3215) rallied to 1.3265 overnight it has come off again from there. Expect relatively quieter trading today between 1.31-33. Dollar-Yen (93.95) too had risen to almost 94.32 in the US session yesterday. Expect a range of 93.40-94.40 today. The Euro-Yen Cross (124.10) has moved back into potentially bullish territory, rising from Tuesday's low near 122.35.
The Pound (1.5175) has, surprisingly, failed to capitalise on the Euro's woes and is trading lower rather than higher today, and may be in danger of falling towards 1.50. Dollar-Swiss (1.0855) rose to as much as 1.0920 yesterday and may target 1.10 in the coming days. The Aussie (0.9245) has recovered after having fallen to 0.9135 late Tuesday. The longer term outlook is not very clear.
In Asia, the Korean Won continues to trade relatively weak near 1115.40. The Sing Dollar has weakened to near 1.38 yesterday but has strengthened to 1.3721 today. On the whole it may gain towards 1.3445. Dollar-Rupee had closed at 44.64 yesterday but may dip towards 44.55-45 today.
The 3M USD LIBOR was up 1 bps to be fixed at 0.34%. The 2Y and 10Y yields were up 3 bps and 6 bps to quote at 1.03% and 3.76% respectively.
The FOMC kept the Rates unchanged at 0.25% yesterday.
13:00 GMT US Weekly Unemployment Claims
...Expected 442K...Previous 456K
AU CPI q/q
...Actual 0.9%...Previous 0.5%
US FOMC Interest Rate
...Actual 0.25%...Previous 0.25%
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